China can wreck Taiwan until Taiwan begs to be taken.
It would be quite costly for China to attempt an amphibious landing across the Straits of Formosa; but China-based airpower will keep the US from doing much about it.
If China can keep the US from preventing the Chinese from establishing a blockade of Taiwan, the Chinese will win without an invasion.
This is going to be a war at sea and in the air.
Its an open question whether China has the airpower and technology available to achieve this against the US. The comparable-tech Russians haven’t been able to break the seemingly obsolete Ukrainian air defense so far.
And the Russian missile forces have been unable to shut down Ukrainian logistics or eliminate its airfields, much less its air defense.
Russia has about as many first line aircraft as China, and as many missile systems. Some of the Russian tech seems better than that of China, even now. It was only a couple of years ago that the Chinese managed to make decent aircraft engines for their own Su-27 derived planes.
Maybe the Chinese have a more efficient military, otherwise, than Russia. Who knows.