Trafalgar poll New York: Zeldin Behind by Less Than 2 Points

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/ ^

[maddog55]

In New York he’d need to be ahead by 20 percentage points for a chance to break even.

[ScottinVA]

And there’s the libertarian.. in the way once again.

[wny]

i’m writing in Giorgia Meloni

[Candor7]

Any poll taken within 60 days of an election is inaccurate. Its a PUSH POLL.

Zeldin is in fact ahead by 2 to 4 points if not more.

The Dem exodus from their party is plain. They do not want to be murdered in their own streets.

[popdonnelly]

For New York, that’s stunning.

[cotton1706]

“Zeldin is in fact ahead by 2 to 4 points if not more.”

I agree with you. It’s like ‘94 and Pataki.

[HamiltonJay]

I question highly this poll, here is its published sampling

35% GOP
44% Dem
21% Other

State registration of Active voters breakdown is

50% D
22% R
18% Other/Undeclared.

We will see soon enough but this sampling, like a lot of Trafalgar this cycle, seems completely out of whack

[cotton1706]

“i’m writing in Giorgia Meloni”

Are you serious?

[Flick Lives]

i’m writing in Giorgia Meloni

—

To what purpose?

[V_TWIN]

Well within the steal range for the demoncrats.

[LoveMyFreedom]

Will be decided in NYC and Albany like every election cycle. Praying though he wins.

[dangus]

Ever notice Libertarians only ever campaign in states where the fantastic unpopularity of a Democrat could help Republicans make inroads? Whatever you think of libertarians, Libertarians exist to get folks like Obama, Hochul, etc., elected and to make braying idiots out of their conservative supporters.

[dangus]

>> I question highly this poll, here is its published sampling
>>35% GOP, 44% Dem, 21% Other

>> State registration of Active voters breakdown is
>>50% D, 22% R, 18% Other/Undeclared.

I agree with your skepticism to a point, but, for starters your registration data only adds up to 90%. It’s 28% other/undeclared. In states and cities where the Republicans often fail to present multiple viable candidates, it’s quite common for Republicans to register as undeclared so that they can vote for the least harmful Democrat in primaries. And sometimes when Democrats are especially hated, even some Democrat-leaning undeclareds will report themselves as Republican.

[chris haney]

State party registration has nothing to do with which voters are more motivated to vote, that’s why the numbers you see are closer. Overall Republicans are more motivated to show up on election day.

[ObozoMustGo2012]

[And there’s the libertarian.. in the way once again.]

“B-b-but... muh principuls...”

[z3n]

I used to support libertarians.

I used to take a lot of crap here on FR for it for this very reason, but now I no longer support them, and it’s not because of taking that crap. I was right the whole time. The reason I supported them is because both democrats (socialist) and republicans (neocons) left a huge opening for a genuine third party.

I changed my feeling after Trump came along. He changed the the dynamics of both parties, such as pushing neocons out of power and appealing to middle class, union, labor, and rural voters. The dems are now stuck trying to appeal to coastal liberal urbanites and suburban single issue females. If there was a real libertarian third party now, they wouldn’t take much of a block at all from the democrats, and would only split votes with republicans.

[cotton1706]

“Ever notice Libertarians only ever campaign in states where the fantastic unpopularity of a Democrat could help Republicans make inroads?”

There are always those people who will vote for a third party candidate because they just can’t vote for either Republican or Democrat, but they want to vote. But you’re right, they’re definitely funded by the Democrats, and get them the signatures, etc. to get on the ballot.

I’ve only voted third party once in my life. I voted for Pat Buchanan in 2000, because I didn’t trust George Bush because of his father, and I read Pat Buchanan’s book in ‘98 and was for him in ‘96. I live in MA so my vote didn’t affect the result whatsoever.

[cgbg]

Trafalger polls are reliable except for one problem—they do not take account of Democratic cheating.

[HamiltonJay]

Who told you that lie?

Voter turnout percentages almost always follow registration percentages in statewide races... with race exception is the deviation more than a percentage point or two.