Posted on 09/12/2022 1:46:23 PM PDT by RomanSoldier19
I said that is what I *think* russia will do to declare victory. Obviously it was about occupying Ukraine. Well technically they thought Ukraine was going to love them and so not really occupy it, just change the leaders
Medvedev’s goal in life is to stay alive and out of prison. Long odds on both.
*
Seems like if that was the case he could get on a plane right now and fly to some sympathetic country. Why doesn’t he do that?
Examine your logic.
Start with what sympathetic country might you suggest.
Then ask why they are “sympathetic” and how that might relate to deserting officials.
Wait, we were told today that Russia is surrendering to Ukraine.
Because the world's technological infrastructure hasn't changed in 75 years...
Further;
What s going to need to happen to break this siege of Kherson?
Scenario 1 would be a tremendous breakthrough past the whole Ukrainian Army to the Dneiper, a crossing of the Dneiper, probably at Zaporizhzhia, and an advance along the north bank to link up. This is science fiction at this point, and moot. It requires a general Russian victory FIRST. Not in sight anytime soon no matter ones optimism.
Scenario 2 requires suppression of the HIMARS systems, which are enforcing the blockade. The Russians haven’t got a weapon system that can do that. The HIMARS is mobile, by this time numerous, and easy to conceal. These aren’t ballistic missiles (as they maneuver in flight) so counterbattery radars arent useful, and they have great range, and can “scoot” long before counterfire can arrive even if they could be located. The Russian Air Force can’t maintain a presence over Ukrainian territory for fear of SAMs, so these cant be hunted by aircraft on the spot. Long distance tactical weapons from aircraft (such as US SDB and others) suffers from the same problems as counterbattery, and Russia hasnt got such weapons anyway.
Scenario 3 requires defensive interception of HIMARS to create an umbrella over crossing points. The Russians have tried this, a lot, and have failed. HIMARS rockets are small and difficult to intercept, and Russia hasnt got anything like the Israeli “Iron Dome”. If they did have something they would be using it already. Conventional SAMs also suffer from the fundamentally bad economics of the situation. HIMARS are very cheap (as these things go), and are salvo fired anyway. SAM systems are expensive, cant fire very fast, and are easy to overwhelm with volume. And the Ukrainians are harassing the Russian radars with HARM, to add to their problems. This could be overcome if Russia can come up with an Iron Dome equivalent, and I think they could, eventually. But thats probably a matter of years.
Scenario 4, I think the most likely - Russia builds a LOT of ferries and sorties them all at once. And keeps it up, which will require creating vast engineering establishments on the spot. This is feasible, if Russia can drum up the resources and logistics, but it will result in very high casualties, on the ferries and landings, as well as among the logistics and engineering resources on the south bank. It will be a target rich environment. Even so it COULD work, but it will take many months even if the resources are available.
I dont see how the Russians can relieve Kherson anytime before they are obliged to surrender or withraw.
They were ASKED to surrender. They haven’t, yet.
LAMO
what is Russia smoking?!?!
Russia is getting it’s butt kicked! Russia will be lucky if their entire government doesn’t implode and Putin hung from a bridge after this!
Russia will be lucky if their entire government doesn’t implode and Putin hung from a bridge after this!
———
Vlad is much like Trump, a strong leader who does what he says. He enjoys a 90 percent plus approval in Russia. Having worked in Moscow training Ivan’s, I can tell you he is staying.
Of course, the armchairs here and the western media are saying the opposite. In fact ( learn some Russian), their Duma ( Congress ) is calling for Vlad to take off the gloves and eat Odessa for dinner.
In many ways its vastly improved.
Much of the new power generation stuff is fantastically modular, lightweight, and quick to build. I have seen the latter part of this change with my own eyes.
I have seen gas turbine power plants built from scratch in three months, from concrete pad to commissioning. And that was without an emergency situation. Everything from turbines, control systems, gas pipelines valves and etc, condensers, you name it, can be installed or replaced so fast it would make your head spin.
There is absolutely no excuse for energy supply problems anywhere (California, I look to you), if forseen even a year ahead, given modern engineering. All the long lead times (for damn well everything, granted) is because of the fantasically impenetrable bureaucracy at every level in the US, plus the legal system and plain politics.
Indeed, you are better off, in the way of improving things in the US, by starting a mass movement to hang your bureaucracy, than objecting to minor assistance to a people fighting for freedom. Go do something useful, check out some local lamp posts.
Thank you. Finally, somebody I totally agree with.
I am surprised its not 100% approval with a gun held to the head of those being polled!
/s
Try again, Medvedyev…. You’re in no position to demand anything.
If you're not using U238 for composite armor and sabot rounds the major change is laser rangefinders, external cameras, network links and secure comms. All of which Ukraine can get from the West.
See Trotsky in Mexico.
The U.S. is so big and strong, it can lose special military operations and survive. Not Russia. After the Soviet Union lost its last special military operation, in Afghanistan, it (the Soviet Union) fell apart. To the west, the Waraw Pact nations and several republics shifted to NATO. To the east, China started to build bridges to the ‘stans of central Asia, and to infiltrate Asiatic Russia. Putin is gambling loss of Belarus, the Caucuses, the ‘stans of central Asia and Asiatic Russia. NATO and China may devour a lot of today’s Russia. Putin is risking going down in history as worse than Tsar Nicholas II.
Yes. It would have been much more believable if reorted by the New Tomes, Washington post etc al.
Zelensky is such a tool. Ukraine was safe while Trump was in office! What else did he want Trump to do? Biden let/made it happen! I don’t get this, things happening now people blame in Trump. Zelensky is just another WEF globablist killing his own people for profit
Russia’s offensive power has ground to a halt after deployment of HIMARS and the near daily ammo dump demolitions. HIMARS and HARM has reshaped the battlefield. Russia no longer has massively superior firepower and fully functioning air defense. Without that the corrupt and incompetent Russian army is near useless.
The Kherson front will most likely collapse at some point in the winter. The rest is dependent on how much heavy stuff Ukraine gets to pound on the rest of Russian occupiers.
Two things is clear after the Kharkiv rout: Russia will run out of motivated soldiers long before Ukraine does. Russia will run out of equipment and Ukraine never will provided west support remains consistent.
Russia has lost the shooting war. The only way they can win is if west cuts support. The Kremlin knows that and their useful idiots know it, too. So we will get endless gaslighting calls for fake “Peace Talks” in the finest Bolshevik tradition.
One problem for Ukraine, to be realistic, is that with no electricity they will be severely hampered, including the trains, which commenters on You Tube say are electric, and used to move troops and heavy equipment.
Thoughts?
OTOH, it seems to me Russia if it succeeds will inherit a depopulated devastated Eastern Ukraine. What the “F” (pardon my French) can they do with it, besides it being a huge liability? They sure as heck don’t have the extra people to repopulate it, as in past episodes. This is as opposed to a Ukraine victory, in which case huge Western energy and resource investment will come in.
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