Posted on 08/23/2022 12:04:48 PM PDT by BeauBo
U.S. natural gas prices take a sharp turn lower after Freeport LNG said on Tuesday it now expects to restart its shuttered export plant in early to mid-November, and ramp up to a sustained level of at least 2B cf/day by the end of November, delaying the timeline from a previous estimate of October.
Freeport LNG's newest recovery plan will utilize the company's second loading dock as a lay berth until loading capabilities at the second dock are reinstated in March 2023, when it anticipates being capable of operating at 100% of capacity.
Nymex front-month natural gas futures (NG1:COM) for September delivery -4.6% to $9.193/MMBtu after briefly touching $10.01/MMBtu earlier...
Even with Tuesday's drop, U.S. natural gas prices have more than doubled since the start of the year in a bull market fueled by Europe’s gas-driven energy crisis.
Freeport LNG shut its plant, which supplies ~20% of U.S. LNG exports, following an explosion and fire on June 8.
(Excerpt) Read more at seekingalpha.com ...
Sure. Midterms are coming up.
I have suspected all along that as midterms near, we are going to see fuel prices decrease in an attempt to convince the gullible public into believing that the democrats did it and that it will continue after the elections, in order to garner as many votes as possible.
That means all the less they need to cheat so their cheating is easier and less obvious.
fixed it for you.
Quit cheerleading for higher heating bills for your fellow Americans, BoBo.
Hopefully.
The longer Freeport is shut down, the longer our natural gas bills stay low.
You LIKE low natural gas and low propane bills, don't you?
In the long run what will really help is when Ukraine is able to tap the large gas reserves around Crimea, and put them in the gas pipeline system for European use. Then we will have more for US use. Also, to consider is that some electric companies have multiple sources. I get annual statements with things like, 30% coal, 35% nuclear, 29% gas, and 6% renewable. So the increase won’t all be based on gas. It is good, I hope, that Turkey has just stated they think Ukraine should get Crimea back. Worth watching developments there.
…Because of Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, and the horrific brutality that they employed, shocking the sensibilities of the Governments of the free world.
Putin’s pitiful propaganda attempt to convince the West to continue funding his genocidal campaigns of conquest through oil and gas sales,has been a laughable failure, and now Russia’s critical oil and gas industries are being destroyed by his clownish failures.
That fool has not only squandered Russia’s Military, and made Russian people into pariahs around the World, he has also set tens of millions of Russians on a fast track to under the poverty line.
What a tragic disaster that clown has been, on every thing that matters.
You'd think that the US secretary of state wouldn't have time for a conservative blog, but here we are...
“In the long run what will really help is when Ukraine is able to tap the large gas reserves around Crimea”
It is increasingly looking like the end state to this war will include the liberation of Crimea, and the Ukraine, along with that Crimean offshore energy, joining the EU. Instead of Buying Russian gas.
Putin has brought economic, as well as Military, Political and Diplomatic doom onto Russia.
The Well deserved doom will inevitably be served on the perpetrators and supporters of Putin’s mafia dictatorship.
The world at large has overwhelmingly committed to extinguishing that abomination, even though much of the Russian Nation and society must be crushed in the process, until the corrupt old regime, and their wormtounge propagandists receive their harsh justice.
The world will be better off when that cancer has been thoroughly cut out.
You got it bad.
The West stands firm with hundreds of billions of dollars, and the World’s best Military capability by far. Putin has brought that doom down onto his head, and all of Russia.
The already huge costs to Russia, will be dwarfed by what is planned to come for it, to remove its capability to threaten in the future. The Russian Military and economy will be gutted over the next couple of years, which will be among the worst in Russian history - because of Putin’s outrages.
Increasingly NG is used in electric power plants, but since the d ms drive coal plants out of existence demand for NG has has increased.
Increasingly NG is used in electric power plants, but since the d ms drive coal plants out of existence demand for NG has has increased.
Yes.
The child-leaders in my area bulldozed two coal plants, and now they're talking about the price of electricity going up because "gas is going up".
The price is going up because our leaders are children.
“So they need the Natural Gas Liquification plants in the US to produce LNG, plus the LNG ships to transport from the US to Europe, plus the LNG deliquification plants in Europe to put gaseous NG into the European pipelines.
All in time for winter to replace the NORD Stream I and II gas pipelines from Russia.
Starting in November doesn’t leave much time to transport that much gas to Europe”
It is a huge effort, but all of those actions are going on concurrently. Out of those, the current driving constraint is available supply to fill the ships.
Freeport LNG is now expecting to resume partial operations in early to mid-November, reaching 2 billion cubic feet of gas production per day by the end of November, which represents 85% of the facility’s export capacity.
It is the seventh-largest liquefaction facility in the world and the second-largest in the United States.
That 2 billion cubic feet per day is about 13% of how much the the Europeans imported from Russia last year. Half or Russia’s former gas imports to Europe have already been replaced, so Freeport alone is about 1/4 of the gap remaining, to fully replace Russian gas.
The EU plan is to replace 2/3rds of Russia’s former gas supply by the end of this year, so Freeport alone will just about do that for them. To replace 100% of Russia’s former supply (that last 1/3), infrastructure in Europe becomes more of a driving constraint, especially LNG import terminal capacity in Northern Europe and Greece.
Ships are more a matter of cost than a physical constraint. Europeans are outbidding other consumers who want shiploads.
Nordstream2 was never activated, and it’s parent company is now dissolving in bankruptcy proceedings, but Nordstream (1) remains in operation, and is capable of delivering over 5 billion cubic feet per day, more than twice Freeport’s total.
If Russia continues its contracted deliveries through the Winter, there is no supply problem in Europe. The stress is preparing for a Russian shutoff (which has been the Russian pattern under Putin). Russia has already cut off several Western European countries, incuding Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, Denmark and the Netherlands. Some of that is over the refusal to pay in rubles rather than dollars (as contracted), so if push comes to shove, they might pay in rubles this Winter.
By the following Winter, a lot more LNG import capacity will be online in Europe.
Thank you for the detailed analysis!
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