U.S. natural gas (price) plunges as Freeport LNG pushes back restart plan (till mid November)

Seeking Alpha ^ | Aug. 23, 2022 | Carl Surran

[BeauBo]

U.S. natural gas prices take a sharp turn lower after Freeport LNG said on Tuesday it now expects to restart its shuttered export plant in early to mid-November, and ramp up to a sustained level of at least 2B cf/day by the end of November, delaying the timeline from a previous estimate of October.

Freeport LNG's newest recovery plan will utilize the company's second loading dock as a lay berth until loading capabilities at the second dock are reinstated in March 2023, when it anticipates being capable of operating at 100% of capacity.

Nymex front-month natural gas futures (NG1:COM) for September delivery -4.6% to $9.193/MMBtu after briefly touching $10.01/MMBtu earlier...

Even with Tuesday's drop, U.S. natural gas prices have more than doubled since the start of the year in a bull market fueled by Europe’s gas-driven energy crisis.

Freeport LNG shut its plant, which supplies ~20% of U.S. LNG exports, following an explosion and fire on June 8.

[BeauBo]

Maybe somebody noticed when the mid term elections were, and wanted to delay the expected domestic price rise from increased exports, until afterward.

Spot price for gas dropped about 5% after the announcement - not a "plunge" in the big picture, but big for a day trader.

[chajin]

There has to be a political reason, since cutting back on production should raise the price, not lower it.

[Revolutionary]

Less export means more in the US.

[PGR88]

There has to be a political reason, since cutting back on production should raise the price, not lower it.

The logic is, if this export terminal can't resume full operations until November, then that extra gas will remain in the USA, thus depressing prices.

[chajin]

Thank you, I should have seen that

[Reno89519]

With restart delayed, prices now drop? I am not following.

[Yo-Yo]

So they need the Natural Gas Liquification plants in the US to produce LNG, plus the LNG ships to transport from the US to Europe, plus the LNG deliquification plants in Europe to put gaseous NG into the European pipelines.

All in time for winter to replace the NORD Stream I and II gas pipelines from Russia.

Starting in November doesn't leave much time to transport that much gas to Europe.

[ConservativeInPA]

How suspicious was the fire on June 8? Was that political?

Off topic: I’m not sure about how to think about this. I caught a little of CNBC yesterday. They were like cheerleaders for higher natural gas prices. My home is heated by natural gas, I’d like to be cheaply warm this winter. On the other hand, Europe may be a little on the chilly and expensive side. The selfish side of me says avoid exporting to keep my fuel bills down. That, of course, is no real solution. The real solution is to fully tap the massive reserve of natural gas in America. There’s plenty to around and keep prices low in America. It kinda sucks for Europe tho. They have to pay a premium on imports from the US.

[kiryandil]

With restart delayed, prices now drop? I am not following.

it appears as though exporting our natural gas to Europe raises the domestic natural gas prices for American peasants.

A tax, if you will, to support stupid decisions made by the child-leaders of the EuroPeeing Union.

[KarlInOhio]

This is an export terminal so there will be more gas remaining in the US for a few months. Prices should go up in Europe because of this.

Good news for me because I have a gas contract renewal in October with an early cancellation penalty so I can't find a new supplier until then. Hopefully it will still be a few cents lower then.

[EC Washington]

NIPSCO - Northern Indiana Public Service [Gas & Light] just announced a massive price increase to consumers starting September 1st.

[BeauBo]

There is a supply glut in the USA, while export is choked off. That terminal was 20% of America’s total capacity to load ships for export.

Once they are exporting that volume again, domestic supply won’t be as overfull.

There is a huge discrepancy between US prices, and International spot prices. When producers can physically get their product exported, they can get much higher prices for it.

[WMarshal]

"There has to be a political reason, since cutting back on production should raise the price, not lower it."

It will lower the price of gas in the US but raise it in Europe. Turnip Winter is coming for Germany and a lot of the EU because the export of Russian oil to the EU through the Ukraine is about to be impossible.

[BeauBo]

It looks like everyone is going to be paying much higher prices for natural gas this Winter, Worldwide, because of Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine.

It will likely be much worse in Europe and Japan than in the USA, but retail prices could double or more in the USA, compared to last Winter.

[kiryandil]

This is an export terminal so there will be more gas remaining in the US for a few months. Prices should go up in Europe because of this.

Right.

I just checked TTF Netherlands LNG futures.

The price jumped from 74.00 per mmBtu in December last week to 83 bucks per mmBtu in December today.

Those Euro kids are screwed.

Henry Hub [domestic] is at 9.25 per mmBtu. A rough calculation for your natgas bill COG [cost of gas] is 10% of the Henry Hub mmBtu price - about 92 cents per therm.

Tack on your ready-to-serve charge and distribution charges.

Our COG per therm last winter was between 30 and 35 cents, for reference. It may be over a buck this winter, thanks to the European dipsticks.

[kiryandil]

NIPSCO - Northern Indiana Public Service [Gas & Light] just announced a massive price increase to consumers starting September 1st.

The Biden-European Union Price Hike.

[crusty old prospector]

Gonna be a cold, expensive winter for Hans Christian Andersen.

[matthew fuller]

That is confusing to me as well.

[Reno89519]

Maybe Greta can share tips on keeping warm without fossil fuels.

[inchworm]

Are Feederal inspectors behind this?