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AP EXPLAINER: How do we know when a recession has begun?
The Associated Press ^ | July 26, 2022 | By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER (D-AP)

Posted on 07/26/2022 1:42:50 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer

WASHINGTON (AP) — By one common definition, the U.S. economy is on the cusp of a recession. Yet that definition isn’t the one that counts.

On Thursday, when the government estimates the gross domestic product for the April-June period, some economists think it may show that the economy shrank for a second straight quarter. That would meet a longstanding assumption for when a recession has begun.

But economists say that wouldn’t mean that a recession had started.

The definition of recession that is most widely accepted is the one determined as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” The committee assesses a wide range of factors before publicly declaring the death of an economic expansion and the birth of a recession — and it often does so well after the fact.

So if we’re not in a recession, what’s going on with the economy, which is sending frustratingly mixed signals?

Even if growth does go negative for a second straight quarter, Fed officials and Biden administration economists point to a lesser-known measure called “gross domestic income.”

GDP calculates the value of the nation’s output of goods and services by adding up spending by consumers, businesses and governments. By contrast, GDI, as the name implies, seeks to measure the same thing by assessing incomes.

Over time, the two measures should track each other. But they often diverge in the short run. In the first quarter, GDI grew 1.8% — much better than the 1.6% decline in GDP.

As part of its judgment of whether an economy is in recession, the NBER considers an average of the two measures. In the first quarter, the average was 0.2%, suggesting that the economy expanded slightly.

(Excerpt) Read more at apnews.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: democrats; journalism; media; press
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Critical Economic Theory: 2+2=5
1 posted on 07/26/2022 1:42:50 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

A recession is when your neighbor loses his job.

A depression is when you lose yours.


2 posted on 07/26/2022 1:43:37 PM PDT by MercyFlush (☭☭☭ Soviet Russia must be destroyed. ☭☭☭)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

When you experience “shrinkflation”, it’s sure sign of inflation. And I’m seeing more than my share of shrinkage


3 posted on 07/26/2022 1:44:47 PM PDT by albie
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To: Oldeconomybuyer
The definition of recession that is most widely accepted is the one determined as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”

That's the common definition of a depression. A recession is two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth, regardless of how high or how low. We're in a recession, as the GNP figures due out this week will confirm.

4 posted on 07/26/2022 1:45:53 PM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

I think it was Nixon that said a recession is any time
the American people lose faith in the future...


5 posted on 07/26/2022 1:46:11 PM PDT by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Leave it to asinine press to obfuscate the issue. Always something in the way of their agenda.


6 posted on 07/26/2022 1:46:27 PM PDT by Fungi
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To: albie
When you experience “shrinkflation”, it’s sure sign of inflation. And I’m seeing more than my share of shrinkage

Shrinkflation has been going on for years.

7 posted on 07/26/2022 1:47:18 PM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

On the cusp of a recession??

Gee… all one has to do is to compare the economy before January 2021 and after…. Yep, it’s been receding since January 20 of that year..

I call THAt a “recession”.


8 posted on 07/26/2022 1:47:45 PM PDT by joethedrummer (We can't vote our way out of this, folks..)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

It’s a recession when I have to change my budget because I pay 2x’s more for gas and groceries.


9 posted on 07/26/2022 1:47:59 PM PDT by mware (RETIRED)
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To: MercyFlush

And recovery is when Joe Biden loses his! (to paraphrase RWR)


10 posted on 07/26/2022 1:47:59 PM PDT by Burma Jones
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

It’s comical to watch them sing and dance.

If Trump were president right now, they’d have been hawking
“the Recession” for 5.5 weeks by now.

Their boy is a two legged horse, and Trump has six.


11 posted on 07/26/2022 1:48:11 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (I pledge allegiance the flag of the U S of A, and to the REPUBLIC for which stands.)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

These AP idiots think their Jedi Mind tricks will work on general public. Well it probably will on the weak minded (aka Democrats and liberals).


12 posted on 07/26/2022 1:49:43 PM PDT by Freedumb
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

“AP EXPLAINER: How do we know when a recession has begun?’

When Biden and his “experts” say it hasn’t began!


13 posted on 07/26/2022 1:50:25 PM PDT by antidemoncrat
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To: albie; Oldeconomybuyer
"...“shrinkflation”..."

About a month ago I bought a jar of iced tea mix.
It was physically the same size jar as the one I previously bought -
but it was only about 2/3 full of iced tea mix.
No lie.

14 posted on 07/26/2022 1:53:13 PM PDT by GaltAdonis
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Add in Gov’t Spending WTF! That’s complete BS! They can just spend themselves away from a recession by that dumb logic.


15 posted on 07/26/2022 2:01:41 PM PDT by for-q-clinton (Cancel Culture IS fascism...Let's start calling it that!)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Are you trying to tell me that the same bunch that can’t define what a woman is are having trouble defining what a recession is?


16 posted on 07/26/2022 2:02:57 PM PDT by jdsteel (Do I really need a /sarc?)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Rush Limbaugh used to call it “million man math.”


17 posted on 07/26/2022 2:05:33 PM PDT by abb
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

The media will only know after they’re given permission to know by their libtard butt buddies


18 posted on 07/26/2022 2:07:21 PM PDT by NWFree (Somebody has to say it 🤪)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer
Simple ... if a Republican is President, one quarter of negative growth.

If a Dem is President, never ... its just a transition.

19 posted on 07/26/2022 2:17:58 PM PDT by dartuser
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

When the RATS don’t agree with something they change the rules or definitions and give it a new name.

So 1984-ish


20 posted on 07/26/2022 2:20:10 PM PDT by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal the 16th Amendment)
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