Posted on 07/26/2022 1:42:50 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
WASHINGTON (AP) — By one common definition, the U.S. economy is on the cusp of a recession. Yet that definition isn’t the one that counts.
On Thursday, when the government estimates the gross domestic product for the April-June period, some economists think it may show that the economy shrank for a second straight quarter. That would meet a longstanding assumption for when a recession has begun.
But economists say that wouldn’t mean that a recession had started.
The definition of recession that is most widely accepted is the one determined as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” The committee assesses a wide range of factors before publicly declaring the death of an economic expansion and the birth of a recession — and it often does so well after the fact.
So if we’re not in a recession, what’s going on with the economy, which is sending frustratingly mixed signals?
Even if growth does go negative for a second straight quarter, Fed officials and Biden administration economists point to a lesser-known measure called “gross domestic income.”
GDP calculates the value of the nation’s output of goods and services by adding up spending by consumers, businesses and governments. By contrast, GDI, as the name implies, seeks to measure the same thing by assessing incomes.
Over time, the two measures should track each other. But they often diverge in the short run. In the first quarter, GDI grew 1.8% — much better than the 1.6% decline in GDP.
As part of its judgment of whether an economy is in recession, the NBER considers an average of the two measures. In the first quarter, the average was 0.2%, suggesting that the economy expanded slightly.
(Excerpt) Read more at apnews.com ...
Yes government spending is a contributor to GDP. Probably why the recession didn’t start a couple quarters ago. Inflated GDP as well as inflated currency.
The idea that their wordsmithing means anything is comical.
That’s been the definition for as long as I can remember.
you say tomato, I say tomato.
Pretty green sky we have today.
It’s fun watching Ass Press squirm with all the others, but in fact what is happening doesn’t really need a label to be happening. It’s happening.
I love listening to these uneducated closet economists...
Here is the real deal..
We are witnessing the bush 07 depression level event finally playing itself out..
The chance for a soft landing was at the end of fubo’s term and the beginning of President Trump’s term.
But, alas, the economy was kicking ass, and nobody had the balls to “ slow it down”.
Now, we all are going to pay the price.
This is going to be a late ‘70’s, early ‘80’s type of event, only worse.
And if Brandon don’t stop screwing around, then we are only seeing the beginning.
If this were happening under a Republican president, the AP would be screaming RECESSION from the rooftops.
AP: Any time a Republican is elected President.
You’re missing my point.
…. This is going to be a late ‘70’s, early ‘80’s type of event, only worse...
Much worse. We actually had leadership 40 years ago. Today, we have incompetent anti-American marxists in charge. This will be a long slog. Forget a recession, “it’s the inflation stupid”.
They’ll redefine anything to simply give themselves what they want politically. Referring, of course, to the AP.
Democrats are simply the political front of the AP.
The week after the November midterms they will say: “White House economic advisers have offered revised figures for the July-October economy and all of these shockingly show a big recession was already underway.”
Nixon quote....
Then we are living in a recession now.
A recovery is when Brandon loses his.
Isn’t that a tornado warning?
Well phrased.
Only thing original with me in that phrase is using “Brandon”.
So, Gross Domestic Income (boosted by Biden’s inflation-hyped government spending!) is pulling a negative GDP up “just high enough “so they can claim no recession before the Nov midterms.
Then that inflation blows us even further into the next quarters recession.
To which I will simply say this: When Barack Hussein Obama was selected, I said here on FR that I would not buy a single new item while he occupied the white house, with the exceptions being food, fuel and clothing.
I lived up to that for EIGHT LONG YEARS. I learned how to repair everything in my home, my vehicles, etc.. I learned basic electronics repair, appliance repair, and I bought NOTHING NEW, opting to repair or live without whatever broke.
I've been doing that exact same thing since Nov. 2020 when the election was STOLEN from us.
The recession began IN EARNEST the day Biden was sworn into the office he stole.
The recession will end either when the Republicans cut Biden's balls off by taking the House & Senate back this November, or in 2024 when Legit President Trump beats Biden's ass at the polls AGAIN and the election isn't stolen.
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