Posted on 07/09/2022 9:02:01 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Well, my my my. The reports of Herschel Walker’s political death in Georgia may turn out to be exaggerated after all — may, I emphasize. A recent Quinnipiac poll showed the football star-turned-Republican Senate nominee down ten points to incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock, 45/55. However, Democratic pollster Data for Progress sees the race very differently, even with the recent scandals surrounding Walker:
A survey by Data for Progress conducted between July 1 and July 6, exclusively shared with The Daily Beast, shows Walker narrowly leading Warnock by 49 percent to 47 percent. Both candidates fell into negative favorability ratings, as Walker received a -3 favorability while Warnock received a -7.
The Georgia Senate seat is one of Democrats’ top priorities this year as they hope to maintain power in Congress’s upper chamber. But with the party forecast to face massive headwinds during the midterm elections while President Joe Biden’s favorability continues to spiral, Democrats in Georgia, like many other states, could be facing an uphill battle.
One problem with scoping out the true status of this race is how little polling we actually have on it, despite its high profile in these midterms. RCP has Warnock up 1.6 points with data that includes the recent Quinnipiac poll, but that’s based on five polls with data stretching back into mid-January. We’ve only seen two polls in June, with ECU showing a straight-up tie at 46-all and the Q-poll’s ten-point Warnock lead.
It seems very interesting indeed that Democratic pollster sees the Walker-Warnock race more pessimistically than either Quinnipiac or ECU. And there may be a reason for it, although the pollster probably would disagree with its implications:
Though the latest poll shows Warnock down from those previous numbers, Data for Progress founder Sean McElwee told The Daily Beast he sees it as “a more accurate reading of the race,” noting their research shows Republicans are invested in economic issues this cycle while Democrats continue to focus on party values.
Really? That’s not what polling data shows, at least nationally. Democrats are nearly as focused on economic issues in this cycle, and hardly focused at all on “party values,” whatever that means. Quinnipiac’s survey showed Georgia Democrats prioritizing gun control, racial inequality, and abortion ahead of inflation, so McElwee may be correct for the moment on this particular state. But if inflation continues to run hot into September and erode buying power, how long before Georgia Democrats start putting it first?
And take a look at the breakdown on the issue question in the Q-poll, too:
Democrat voters might be focused on “party values,” but hardly any other demo is. Among women, nearly three times as many are prioritizing inflation over abortion, and almost double over their next-highest priority of “gun violence.” Inflation gets even higher priority among college graduates, almost four times as many respondents than abortion and three times as many as election laws. Democrats and black voters are the only two demos without solid pluralities prioritizing inflation, and the latter only barely as gun violence (28%) edges out inflation (25%).
And that’s in the sample that gave Warnock a ten point lead, too.
Meanwhile, Data for Progress has the other marquee race firmly in Republican hands:
The gubernatorial race between Democratic nominee for governor Stacey Abrams and Republican incumbent Brian Kemp is not nearly as close, according to the poll. The survey found 53 percent of respondents said they’d vote for Kemp compared to only 44 for Abrams. Kemp also had a +3 favorability rating, compared to Abrams’ -9.
Quinnipiac had this at a tie, which is at least proportional to these poll results. It doesn’t appear that Abrams is making much of an impression on voters in Georgia even in Dem-leaning surveys despite her longer electoral history in the state. Of course, it might be because of her electoral history and track record of denying official election results, which was a popular position to take in 2018 but somehow became insurrection-y in 2020. It doesn’t appear that Democrats’ focus on “party values” is helping Abrams out in the gubernatorial race.
This points up another dynamic that is worth considering. Abrams and Warnock largely pitch to the same voter base. Kemp and Walker are pitching to two very different markets. Walker is riding on support from Donald Trump and the MAGA wing of the GOP while Kemp has been very unpopular among that crowd, at least until recently. Yet both Republicans seem to be doing well enough to gain leads in surveys conducted by this Dem-leaning pollster, which looks to me like Republican voters in Georgia are leaving 2020 behind and focusing on the present and the future. That’s bad news for Georgia Democrats even outside of specific polling results.
Given that dynamic, the fact that pollsters routinely underestimate Republican support in Georgia (the 2020 runoffs being a notable exception), and the amplitude of the red wave coming in these midterms, I’d guess that both Walker and Kemp are doing even better than we see here. For the moment, anyway.
Kemp actually opened up Georgia before DeSantis did with Florida.
Georgia was NOT the only place this was true
Trump needed more than Georgia to win. That is fact
I made no comment about fraud in the vote
You take plain words that have no other meaning and decide you can make them mean what you want. Intellectually dishonest
“Trump lost the votes of middle class women ( mostly white) and that sunk him”.
The above quote is your statement.
I take it to mean:
Loss of votes from middle class women cost him the election, not voter fraud.
Is that a correct understanding of your meaning?
“Georgia would not have changed the outcome”
Even if Georgia was won by voter fraud, Trump would have lost anyway due to the above claim that he lost (was “sunk”) due to loss of middle class women’s votes in the rest of the country.
Is that a correct understanding of your meaning?
First part is correct
Last part is not. Georgia did not give Trump enough EC votes to get him past the loss of Mi and Pa and other states.
If democrats are involved there will always be vote fraud. It’s like a bad ref. You have to be and play better than all of the obstacles
So yes, you deny Biden is president due to vote fraud and was legitimately elected.
“Last part is not. Georgia did not give Trump enough EC votes to get him past the loss of Mi and Pa and other states.”
Btw, that exactly what I said you said.
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You are an enabler and supporter of the Biden illegitimate presidency.
Agree.
Can't people hate them both?
I remember people telling us that about McConnell, and before that about Arlen Specter.
Those people were wrong.
+1.
Yeah, Ruby and her daughter stuffing fake ballots into the machine in the middle of the night over and over again had nothing to do with it.
Nothing wrong with Kemp. He’s done good for Georgia. Trump doesn’t like him... That’s Trump’s problem and I’m a Trump suppoter. Purdue sucked because he did nothing.
And Kemp couldn’t reject the delegates provided to him under Georgia law. That’s fact if folks would actually read law but that would require time and thought.
Brad Raffensperger was and is the problem. That’s where the blame needs to be placed.
To follow up:
“Georgia law prohibits the Governor from interfering in elections. The Secretary of State, who is an elected constitutional officer, has oversight over elections that cannot be overridden by executive order,”
The Secretary of State shall also, upon receiving the certified returns for presidential electors, proceed to tabulate, compute, and canvass the votes cast for each slate of presidential electors and shall immediately lay them before the Governor. Not later than 5:00 P.M. on the seventeenth day following the date on which such election was conducted, the Secretary of State shall certify the votes cast for all candidates described in subparagraph (a)(4)(A) of Code Section 21-2-497 and upon all questions voted for by the electors of more than one county and shall no later than that same time lay the returns for presidential electors before the Governor.
No laws can be brought to bear? None?
So why did he say he was going to do something, and suddenly change his mind after his daughters' boyfriend died in an odd manner?
Sure, but don’t cast a vote for the pure evil one.
Read the Georgia laws. It’s specific in the Governors and Secretary of states roles as far as elections goes both local, state and federal.
As for Kemp he has since changed his abilities based on legislation that was brought before him:
Election Integrity Act of 2021
Georgia Governor Brian Kemp signed a bill allowing the Georgia Bureau of Investigation to launch criminal probes of voter fraud allegations that previously had to be referred by the secretary of state.
No I am not
Quit pretending I am something I am not
You are delusional
“You are delusional”
About what?
Is it delusional to think Biden “won” by vote fraud?
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