Posted on 06/24/2022 3:21:09 AM PDT by FarCenter
The long and short of it is that, while the US and NATO can fight a short conflict, neither can support a long war because there’s insufficient equipment in the now-depleted inventory and the timelines to build replacement hardware are long.
Despite a history of having done so before, starting in 1939, there is little chance that the US today can put in place a surge capacity, or that it any longer knows how to do so if it is even feasible.
Based on those circumstances alone – and there are additional, compelling reasons – the US and NATO should be thinking about how to end the war in Ukraine rather than sticking with the declared policy of trying to bleed Russia.
...
The US and Europe face a risk because they are increasingly dependent on high-tech supplies from Asia. Today there are severe supply bottlenecks, shortages and risk dependencies. Even China, which has a huge commercial manufacturing infrastructure, faces difficulties in obtaining the most sophisticated integrated circuits, manufactured only in Taiwan by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC).
Procurement of defense goods in the US and Europe is episodic, not continuous. Funds are allocated to purchase a certain quantity of defense equipment. When the contract is completed and there are no immediate follow-on purchases, production lines are shut down and second- and third-tier component suppliers also stop production – or they shift to work on other projects (and in some cases go out of business).
This means that if a new order comes in later, the supplier network and the production lines will have to be started almost from scratch. In addition to the loss of infrastructure for certain types of weapons, there is the related loss of skilled factory workers and engineers.
(Excerpt) Read more at asiatimes.com ...
Giant sucking sound of American manufacturing. All the important bits sucked away.
Short wars only then
Don’t worry, we can always pay China to build our tanks, fighter jets, and warships.
/sarcasm
BS article. Some production may cease due to obsolescence issues etc. but that is an exception not a rule. DOD is constantly looking for alternatives and ways to maintain the industrial base.
The enemy gets a vote on how short or long a war is.
[Unless you are talking about a nuclear first strike by America, resulting in global Armageddon.]
And if the enemy has already ramped up military weapons and ordnance production, they can last longer than a country that has not. Witness Russia/Ukraine.
Our own American military analysts have made painstakingly clear we are not currently able to fight a “near-peer” fighting force and it will be years before we can for many reasons and the draw down of weapons is only a part.
Britain came out yesterday and said because they had depleated much of their weapons (which many called an “excuse”) to Ukraine it will be 5 to 10 years before they can raise a division to fight along side the U.S.
I worked on weapons in the civilian military/industrial complex for 33 years. Here’s the supply problem. Because of the once each year funding mechanism for military contracts, no supplier is going to automate anything because automation must be amortized over multiple years. Let’s say you have a five-year contract to produce 15 radars per year. The funding for that contract is allocated on a year-by-year basis, meaning you could lose it after just one year. You would have to eat any long term producibility improvements you put into place. (Say, an actual test range instead of lugging half a ton of test equipment and targets out to a rented field, which this year was turned into a housing complex. Opps, have to go to a different state and spend months calibrating everything.)
The fantastic production of WWII was because the supplier knew he had the contract for a long time and therefore he could implement long term cost savings measures. A liberty ship was produced about every 26 days for the length of the war. To build a nuclear submarine, which admittedly is a lot more complex, takes about two years. If you knew for absolute certain you had a contract for twenty subs and you got paid after each was completed, how long do you think it would take? Suddenly you’d see real innovation and construction improvements happen.
Bottom line, most military contracts are each custom built by hand. If you want to lay awake at night worrying, realize that the bulk of the workers who do that kind of work are aging out of the workforce. True there are some younger ones, but things like unions and work rules tend to guarantee the older worker his job and when the average age of the workforce is sixty, well, in five years they will all retire within a year of each other. All that experience goes with them.
This is just a brief glance at the supply problem. There are scads of other problems which Congress and the military have (possibly) with the best of intentions have foisted on contractors.
Big stress today on Ukrainian forces after troops encircled in cauldrons.
Pro-Ukrainian Telegram site
legitimate
#Rumors
As we previously insided, now the number of wounded has increased tenfold, which provokes a shortage of places in hospitals and doctors.
Now there is another big problem. There is not enough blood for the wounded in regional hospitals due to the large influx of the wounded.
Now they are using old conditional blood supplies, they are also connecting the entire army and power bloc to blood donation, but society should also help. If you want to help, then donate blood - save a warrior.
Telegram
legitimate
#Rumors
Our source reports that Ukraine will soon face a shortage of “hospital beds” for soldiers. Hospitals in many cities are already overcrowded, and medical staff is sometimes not enough. People are not robots.
Now the number of wounded is increasing daily.
143.4Kviews
00:11
June 24
Russian media have already begun to insinuate that over 800 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have surrendered near Lisichansk and in the “cauldron” near Gorsky and Zolote over the past two days. Lots of photos and videos are expected now.
Once again, the command stupidly left the soldiers, although everyone knew about the formation of this small boiler, everyone showed it hundreds of times in videos and wrote on the net, but the General Staff did nothing about it, but simply “left the situation to chance”. Someone really needed to create the illusion that they were holding every meter, resulting in hundreds of deaths per day, hundreds of wounded and hundreds of prisoners.
It seems that the General Staff does not care about the infantry, because you can always recruit new ones.
To refresh the memory of analysts from the Office of the President, we are backing analytics of our colleagues dated May 18, where they already got inside information about this “small cauldron” and the plans of the RF Armed Forces.
124.0Kviews
01:08
Resident
periculum in mora (from Latin: delay is dangerous) or delay is like death!
This is how the situation on the eastern front looks like now, for the Armed Forces of Ukraine it is critical in Lisichansk, it is urgent to make a decision on the withdrawal of our grouping. An open conflict was ripening in the OP, where politicians tried to replace the military, and for almost a month Zaluzhny persuaded Zelensky to keep equipment and personnel, for this it was necessary to withdraw the Armed Forces of Ukraine to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, so as not to repeat the experience of Debaltseve. Then our guys were simply destroyed by artillery during the retreat, but on Bankovaya they decided differently, the thoughtless command deliberately ruined the best army in Europe for the “picture”.
Now the political center of influence is justified by the fact that it saved our people at Azot and they are trying to fire Zaluzhny, blaming him for all the miscalculations at the front.
60.1Kviews
23:29
WarDonbass (Pro-Russian Telegram site)
forwarded from
Joker DNR
My spies from Zelensky’s entourage report that yesterday, due to the situation on the fronts of the LNR, there was a scandal between the clown and his slave Zaluzhny, who commands the Armed Forces of Ukraine and whom the clown is still thinking about how to eliminate.
Zaluzhny demanded to take his soldiers to Slavyansk-Kramatorsk, and the clown ordered to stand to death. Zaluzhny accused the clown of working for the enemy and hung up. After that, Zaluzhny imitated the execution of the clown’s order, and he himself secretly gave the order to withdraw the troops.
We continue to follow the battle of these funny boys. Ah-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha...
3.1Kviews
02:50
The long and short of it is that, while the US and NATO Russia and Belarus can fight a short conflict, neither can support a long war because there’s insufficient equipment in the now-depleted inventory and the timelines to build replacement hardware are long.
There, fixed it!
Regards,
“Here’s the supply problem. Because of the once each year funding mechanism for military contracts, no supplier is going to automate anything because automation must be amortized over multiple years.”
That is not entirely correct. It depends on the type of funding, contract and lead time. DOD puts certain long lead time items on contract for multiple years, paid up front. This is not a standard procedure due to technological and engineering changes (you don’t want to contractually lock into producing a design that may be “obsolete” or of an incompatible configuration. It is not uncommon for DOD to use 5 year contracts and they do not initiate a contract without a pretty decent idea of the quantities they are going to buy during that contract lifespan. Also some DOD contracts also have Clins for FmS customers to procure on.
If only a short billionaire would have warned us.
For all their alleged difficulties in ramping up production and/or procuring supplies, the U.S. and NATO are still 1000% better-positioned in this respect than Russia.
In a "war of attrition" between a NATO-backed Ukraine and a Russia that is standing more or less alone, Russia is doomed to become depleted first.
Regards,
Any military primarily concerned with climate change, pronouns and gay pride will get it’s ass kicked in a hurry by a serious enemy.
Thanks for posting the article. Asia times is an excellent source of objective information and the author of this piece is highly qualified.
“Dr. Stephen Bryen is a leading expert in security strategy and technology. He has held senior positions in the Department of Defense, on Capitol Hill and as the President of a large multinational defense and technology company. Currently, Dr. Bryen is a Senior Fellow at the American Center for Democracy, the Center for Security Policy. He has served as a senior staff director of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as the Executive Director of a grassroots political organization, as the head of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, as the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Trade Security Policy, and as the founder and first director of the Defense Technology Security Administration. He is the author of Technology Security and National Power: Winners and Losers, and of three volumes of Essays in Technology, Security and Strategy. Dr. Bryen was twice awarded the Defense Department’s highest civilian honor, the Distinguished Service Medal.
>>Any military primarily concerned with climate change, pronouns and gay pride will get it’s ass kicked in a hurry by a serious enemy.
All that is needed is a “serious enemy”...sure isnt Russia as we see....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4rWfPPR-V8&t=905s
Ukraine Russia War Update - Col Douglas Macgregor
>>>Our own American military analysts have made painstakingly clear we are not currently able to fight a “near-peer” fighting force<<<
Particularly if the battle is next door to that “near peer and they can resupply from factory to battlefield by railroad and truck.
UK Military Think Tank Confirms US Unable to Re-Arm Ukraine
[Extremely important analysis. America just doesn’t currently have the military industrial capability to rearm Ukraine to match what Russia can pour into the battle. This would take years to accomplish, if we had the will, and we don’t. I would compare America in 2022 to Great Britain in the 50s at the time of the Suez Crisis, that is, a declining but self-deluded empire gliding along on past glories, but unable to match the new rising powers. During Suez, America was able to pick up the slack for the declining British and French, but in 2022, Russia and China are the rising powers.]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqXC22fRCBE&ab_channel=AlexanderMercouris
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.