The unpalatable truth in Ukraine

Politico ^ | 06/02/22 | ANDREW LATHAM

[Mount Athos]

Once we have eliminated all the impossible scenarios, the least improbable outcome of the war in Ukraine is a Russian victory.

Any conceivable Russian victory now will entail such a loss of blood and treasure that it will have to be judged Pyrrhic at best.

But it will be a victory nonetheless — and we in the West had better come to grips with that hard truth.

Let’s begin by eliminating the impossible.

The first unrealistic endgame is the reduction of Ukraine to a vassal state of the Russian empire.

The second impossible scenario is the total defeat of the Russian military and the restoration of Ukraine to its pre-2014 borders.

The third and final impossible scenario is a limited Ukrainian victory that would reverse all or most of the Russian gains since Feb. 24, 2022.

While once viewed as a realistic outcome, by now it should be obvious that this is impossible. Just as Ukraine lacks the ability to liberate all its pre-2014 territory, it also lacks the ability to liberate the recently conquered territory in the Donbas or along the Azov coast. Unlike in the north of Ukraine, these territories are central to Russian interests in Ukraine and, as such, Russia simply will not withdraw from them as it withdrew from Kyiv earlier in the war. Nor will Ukrainian forces – themselves, it should be noted, suffering terrible attrition all along the battle front and growing weaker with each passing day – be strong enough to compel them to do so.

And that leaves only one other conceivable outcome: a fragmented and partly dismembered Ukraine, neither fully part of the West nor entirely within the Russian sphere of influence. This outcome is not only not impossible, it’s not even improbable.

[MinorityRepublican]

Ukraine will have millions of trained and equipped soldiers soon. The tide of battle, especially in winter, could easily swing. Russia idea of victory is to take land, but that will result in a reigniting later, so it’s not really victory.

Depends on whether Russia is going to fully mobilize.

If not, they need to sue for peace. International peacekeepers in Lutansk and Donbass. Ukranian recognization of Crimea as a province in the Russian Federation.

[Pete Dovgan]

Russia, I think, can’t fully mobilize for political reasons. Without NATO invading, or even Ukraine, they cannot justify to the populace a full mobilization.

I believe that Russia has already lost strategically, and I believe they are loosing tactically because they are using up resources that are irreplaceable, with little or no gains. What they have gained they probably cannot hold. The prolonged conflict will only worsen the crisis.

I don’t like Zelensky, I don’t like Putin, I only support the poor people who can’t get out of the way or work the land. This is a stupid war, it’s about money. I
Do not believe it’s about NAZI or strategic positions, neither make sense at this point. While it might be bad for Ukraine, no matter what, in the long run it’s worse for Russia.

That leaves the Chinese to profit from it all. Disgusting.

[rmlew]

Plenty of native Russian speakers are Ukranian and think of themselves as such. Plenty of Russians and other non-ethnic Ukranian citizens of Ukraine are fighting the KGB invasion, because they don't want to live under the dictatorship of a Stalin-loving KGB colonel.
Putin doesn't want actual elections in the Raions and Oblasts. It would set a precedent for the prison of nations known as Russia. So he invaded.

[rmlew]

Neocons aren’t pro-honosexual and neither is Ukraine. But please give us more neo-Stalinist lies.

[rmlew]

KGB Russia is allied to China and Iran. Bannon is a CCP collaborator anda traitor to America

[rmlew]

Hunter Biden worked for a pro-Russian Oligarch, who was part of the pro-Russian government overthrown in 2014. Your confusion makes you an allie of Hunter’s paymaster.

[WMarshal]

"Neocons aren’t pro-honosexual and neither is Ukraine. But please give us more neo-Stalinist lies.

Hey, I didn't make Zelensky dance in a gay fetish video in leather and pumps, that is on him and his fanbois. That being said I find you courage to come out as a neocon refreshing. Neocons usually do their dirty work on the down low. Good for you.

Now go to DU where you belong and pester us no more.

[WMarshal]

"If Ukraine can continue of constant warfare within it’s 2014 boundary"

You are delusional. If the Ukrainians keep it up Moscow may decide to flatten Kiev like it did Mariupol. Russia has the capability and the will to manufacture enough missiles with hyperbaric warheads to flatten Kiev at will and they won't shed a tear doing so.

[WMarshal]

When the Boomer generation dies off America will begin to recover. There are many exceptions to the rule but, as a generation, they are a curse on America.

[WMarshal]

Hopium is a helluva drug. Get help.