Posted on 05/19/2022 8:50:15 PM PDT by lightman
With Pennsylvania’s county election administrators continuing to chew through mail-in and absentee ballots Thursday, the front-runners in the nearly deadlocked Republican U.S. Senate primary offered both argued that their paths to victory remained wide open.
That case seemed a little bit easier for Dr. Mehmet Oz’s team Thursday night, as the cardiac surgeon-turned-daytime television superstar still held a 1,123 vote lead over former Wall Street executive David McCormick.
As of presstime for this story, that broke down as follows: Oz, 417,719, or 31.2 percent; McCormick 416,596, or 31.1 percent. That’s with an estimated 98.6 percent of the vote in, according to The Associated Press.
But, to be sure, McCormick’s team was conceding nothing.
“We feel quite confident that when every vote that’s been cast is counted, that Dave McCormick is going to be the Republican nominee for the United States Senate from Pennsylvania,” a senior McCormick official said.
The spinning aside, there likely won’t be clarity on this race until Tuesday, when the deadline passes for the receipt of ballots from deployed military service members and Pennsylvanians overseas, and county elections officials have made final determinations on what provisional ballots do and don’t make the final cut.
With the benefit of background calls from both campaigns where officials gave their assessment of where things stand, here’s a closer look at why Team McCormick hasn’t run up the white flag just yet, and why Team Oz says that eventually they will be. The Continued Mail-in Count
As of 6 p.m. Thursday, according to Department of State tallies, McCormick was winning 32.1 percent of the mail-in vote in the primary, with Oz second at 23.1 percent.
State spokesman Mark Walters said late Thursday that the department is estimating there are about 8,700 Republican mail-in and absentee ballots left to count. McCormick’s team believes there may be more. But taking State’s estimate at face value, if the candidates continued to get the same vote share from that group, McCormick could gain 785 votes on Oz.
Oz sources argued that is McCormick’s last best shot to win, and they said it looks to them as if there simply aren’t enough uncounted ballots out there to for McCormick - if he does continue to lead in this category - to catch up.
“We are confident Dr. Oz will win this race,” an Oz campaign staffer said.
But McCormick’s strategists said they have two other cards to play. Updated Election Day Results
There doesn’t appear to be room for a lot of movement here, but McCormick’s staff said they had identified 65 precincts in Philadelphia, Allegheny and Delaware counties where final vote totals stand to be revised starting Friday, largely because of mistakes made by polling place workers.
McCormick’s team says the Philadelphia shifts will be de minimus because there are barely any GOP voters in the affected districts.
Jim Allen, director of election operations in Delaware County, said the results in four affected precincts there amounted to a net gain of 16 votes for McCormick, and have already been added to its count.
Which brings us to Allegheny County, where miscues by precinct workers resulted in incomplete counts in 31 polling places.
McCormick has been running ahead of the field in his once and future home county, polling 38.8 percent of the Election Day count. Oz was second, at 33.4 percent. If the registered Republicans in the affected precincts turned out at a rate consistent with the county as a whole, and the candidates received the same vote share as they did on Election Day, McCormick could pick up a net 100 votes on. Oz.
“The math (for McCormick) just isn’t there from the areas that we were able to find,” an Oz official said. Overseas and Military Voters
These special categories of Pennsylvanians abroad can have their ballots received through next Tuesday.
Right now there are 1,582 - between both parties - that are awaiting processing statewide, according to McCormick’s team, and that number could grow. The vast majority of these are civilians: As an example, Allegheny County said that they have ballots in hand from 140 civilians and 11 service members so far.
There will likely be some more by next Tuesday.
This is a complete wildcard at this pojnt, but McCormick’s staff claimed that they had made a significant investment in outreach to these voters, so they hope they are mostly Republican, and that those Republicans will vote for McCormick at an even higher rate given his background as a West Point graduate who went on to serve in the Army’s revered 82nd Airborne.
“If you just give us a thousand of those (as Republican ballots), I think they’d probably pick the 82nd Airborne paratrooper over the Turkish Army surgeon,” the McCormick campaign official said. Provisional Ballots
After all the above buckets are emptied, there’s still the matter of provisional ballots.
These are the votes cast by first-time voters who are required to show ID but couldn’t produce one, voters who asked for a mail-in ballot but but didn’t fill it out and turned up to vote in person without officially surrendering their mail-in; or people who moved to a new address and didn’t updated your registration, but might still be eligible to vote for statewide races like governor and U.S. Senate.
County officials will start reviewing them Friday morning, and according to state guidelines are to render decisions on who’s vote is good, and who’s isn’t, by the close of business Tuesday, or seven days after the election.
For context, in the 2020 presidential election, about 1.5 percent of all votes cast in Pennsylvania started as provisional ballots. In most elections, that’s not seen as too big of a deal. But in this Senate race, that could be an additional 10,000 Republican votes.
It sure feels like they’re going to matter quite a bit this spring, doesn’t it?
The winner of the GOP race will advance into what is expected to be a hotly-contested and nationally-watched general election campaign against Pennsylvania’s Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who easily won the Democratic Party nomination.
Fetterman is Left of Marx.
Fellow American voter....”All Of You”.....You do not have to wait until November 8th, 2022 (Election Day) to destroy Democrat, Joe Biden and his hate and destroy “Democrat Party”.
Thus far in the primary elections the Republican Party turnout of voters is slaughtering the Democrat turnout of voters!!! Why? Very few Democrats want to be seen or heard campaigning for & with, Fake, Illegal, Criminal, Elected, Democrat Joe Biden. Biden gets no crowds or supporters any where he speaks...period!!! A touch of Biden politically is the political kiss of defeat!!!
Trump is the “Steamroller” in these primaries by virtue of his Ultra Maga endorsements. Republicans .....”TURNOUT” *& vote...period!!! Democrats avoid contact and voting with Democrat, Joe Biden. He will sink you politically....for sure.....100% sure!!!
” ... OZ even though I honestly don’t believe he will be true MAGA!!!”
Ya THINK? He’s a horrible human being.
I think Sands was the only true MAGA candidate but she got almost no coverage.
“if he wins he’ll owe Trump BIGLY.”
Other people who owed Trump bigly:
Jeff Sessions
Brian Kemp
Mitt Romney
Ronna ROMNEY McDaniel
Mike Pence
Chris Wray
The list is long of people Trump endorsed or appointed who were eager to betray him. Why would Oz be more honorable, especially considering he’s Muslim and taqiyya is condoned and encouraged?
“And Trump wins another endorsement.”
I worry that he’s endorsing popular people instead of the best people, knowing they’ll most likely win. It creates a vicarious win for him, and that’s not what’s most important.
Pennsylvania is a cheater state. An honest election is impossible in this state. Both parties, Democrat and Republican, aided and abetted by the Pennsylvania State Supreme Court are denying a fair election to the people of the State.
Three losers competing for a Pennsylvania Senate Seat, and their voters can’t even make a choice among these three losers. Amazing. The best possible outcome is that Pennsylvania gets a New Jersey liberal who is a citizen of Turkey. Unbelievable.
Oz was the absolutely WORST candidate that Trump could endorse. He should have endorsed Carla Sands.
Me and my family will be NOT be voting for carpetbagger, RINO Oz under no circumstance. Never, ever.
Send them both. Why do we always have to pick winners and losers? They are both winners! Participation trophy!
As compared to muhammed oz, that lifetime Ultra MAGA pal of hannity and oprah and jussie and every other hollyweird liberal.
I voted for Kathy, and I believe that dave and oz kept her out, not the other way around.
So you are an oz backer, and like Trump, you are both wrong.
“I think Sands was the only true MAGA candidate but she got almost no coverage.”
*
I went to see Carla Sands speak twice. Impressive & formidable candidate…
Reminds me of many elections...there IS a decent candidate in the mix, but few vote for him (or her). Why? Lack of media/money, and voters are too damn lazy (or ignorant) to do their OWN research. I would have voted for Sands or Barnette. The other two are CRAP. Pennsylvania is in the rear view mirror, as far as I am concerned.
Why do you feel Sands wasn’t MAGA, as well?
Never, ever?
You only have one choice, it is an ugly and bitter choice, drink urine or arsenic, that's it.
One will taste terrible and the thought is repulsive, THE OTHER CHOICE WILL KILL YOU AND YOUR FAMILY.
Remember, not voting is a choice: never, ever.
One of the conservative guys for school board last year managed to lose solely because he has secured the nomination on the Democrat ballot only in the primary, where every candidate cross-files.
The state GOP is going to be happy with either Oz or McCormick solely because they are both rich enough to fund their own campaign. Whether either can beat the pothead Fetterman remains to be seen.
We will take our chances. Frankenstein will die in office and then the Republican governor can appoint a true conservative. I will be sending the Fetterman campaign suggestions on how to beat the greasy Oz.
Either one is good for Pa. but if i have to vote for one ,it be OZ. The other guy is a deep bottom dwelling creature from the swamp. Just a different swamp.
Yep - too many ignored her inability to outright deny some of the anti-Trump, and other crap that was dredged up - “I don’t think that was me” or “That looks like an incomplete statement - maybe a later statement clarified it” aren’t defenses against “false attacks”
McCormick had a better mail out ballot strategy, he may win.
Spoke with Baris yesterdy. “Barring a major tabulation error, Oz will win.”
All outstanding ballots are NOT Republican. Indeed, most are DemoKKKrat and will not change the outcome at all. Those in Allegheny Co. are trending Mac +6, not nearly enough to overtake Oz.
Oz is the next senator, because he will beat the Fetterman Massacre.
Bwhahaha
Both MCCormick and OZ are RINO twits…
OZ is no MAGA…
People are delusional if they believe otherwise
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