There is no doubt that we are in a kind of war with Russia. It’s called a “limited war.” As to the limits of this war, we currently think we can resupply Ukraine by land, but not by air, and that Russia will not attack the staging areas outside Ukraine.
But, what if the an unlimited war were to break out?
population NATO 947 million, Russia 144 million
GDP NATO $44 trillion, Russia $1.5 trillion
military budget NATO $1 trillion, Russia $60 billion
Russia would have absolute no chance in a conventional war against NATO; so, it would have to go nuclear and hope that a good percentage of its Soviet-era nuclear weapons successfully launch.
We would suffer huge losses. And Russia would be turned into a sheet of glass.
Putin would have to be Hitler-level of evil to initiate nuclear war. Maybe he is that evil. So, he makes the threat on the idea that he’s Hannibal Lector with nukes, to scare the west into submission. And, if this works with Ukraine, this strategy will work with Poland and whatever other country Putin decides to attack.
On the other hand, Russia can withdraw to the pre-invasion borders.
That is a very good summary. Is putin crazy enough? Are his supporters that crazy?
Very nice post. Wars are very expensive and Russia is a 98 lb weakling compared to NATO. They do know that hence all the huffing and puffing and bluster and bluffing.
It is funny that you believe we would retaliate with nuclear weapons.
Did you forget that it was Obama who said we could absorb a nuclear attack?
Putin may be ill. If he has little time left he may want to go out like some sort of Peter the Great, in which case he could be extremely dangerous, and since he has started this failure of a military operation, he has painted himself into a corner where failure could end his career abruptly from the inside of Russia with great humiliation for him.
Stated nuclear policy of Russia includes any existential threat to the Russia(n government), and Putin has created that situation of potential failure in Ukraine.