Of course Trump will win.
Not if the Dems put up a moderate. For arguments sake, let's say the Dems run, oh I don't know, NYC Mayor Eric Adams. He's a former cop, minority, liberal views but can lean moderate compared to the lunatics running the party. You'll laugh and say he can't win a national election, but I think moderates would vote for him en masse against Trump. IMHO.
The Republicans will have the House and maybe Senate in 2022. If they don't make progress, a moderate Dem has a good chance in 2024.