Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

A 60% Dud Rate for Precision-Guided Munitions Explains a Lot of Russia's Problems in Ukraine
RedState ^ | Mar 24, 2022 | streiff

Posted on 03/25/2022 7:18:47 AM PDT by tomd2

Thursday, US intelligence officials leaked a classified assessment about the performance of Russian precision-guided munitions in the Ukraine invasion.

The United States assesses that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60% for some of the precision-guided missiles it is using to attack Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of the intelligence told Reuters.

The disclosure could help explain why Russia has failed to achieve what most could consider basic objectives since its invasion a month ago, such as neutralizing Ukraine’s air force, despite the apparent strength of its military against Ukraine’s much smaller armed forces.

The U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information, did not provide evidence to support the assessment and did not disclose what precisely was driving high Russian missile failure rates.

One of the staples on social media accounts reporting from Ukraine has been the very high rate of cruise missiles that have failed to detonate.

from Twitter

#russian dud missle stuck in kitchen in one of #ukrainian homes #Ukraine #Russia #war pic.twitter.com/jHQFnaAwMd https://twitter.com/DEFENSEEXPRESS/status/1504719056716324871 — Crimes Of War (@CrimesOfWarDoc) March 20, 2022

OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical · Mar 24, 2022 The United States assesses that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60% for some of the precision-guided missiles it is using to attack Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of the intelligence told Reuters.

https://www.reuters.com/resizer/qwwdr8DbAE6Q-0vNoGPehbmt5E4=/1200x0/filters:quality(80)/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/Y5YDJGQTLROU3MKBTIUW4Q46U4.jpg

A missile is seen after a shelling, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Kharkiv, Ukraine March 24, 2022.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/exclusive-us-assesses-up-60-failure-rate-some-russian-missiles-officials-say-2022-03-24/

Exclusive: Up to 60% failure rate for some Russian missiles in Ukraine, U.S. officials say The United States assesses that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60% for some of the precision-guided missiles it is using to attack Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of the...

NoMoreMrNiceBlyler @e_blyler maybe they’re just drunk? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOp6eO4VgBYutnY?format=jpg&name=900x900

Problems with fuzing are not unknown. The most famous example of this is the Mark 6 exploder used in the Mark 14 and Mark 15 torpedoes of the US Navy until September 1943. The flaws of the exploder and the torpedo produced a dud rate of over 50% in the standard submarine torpedo. The problem was caused by the Navy weapons designers wanting to avoid the cost of a field trial.

Precision-guided munitions are essential in modern warfare. However, in Ukraine, the proliferation of air defense systems, particularly MANPADS, has made flight below 10,000 feet very unhealthy. By the same token, dropping gravity bombs from above 10,000 feet, given the skill level of the Russian Air Force, which flew eight hours per month before the war, is not much better than using a trebuchet.

If this report is accurate, it speaks to massive manufacturing and possibly engineering design problems in the Russian arms industry.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Russia
KEYWORDS: alreadyposted; chechens; chechnya; corruption; embezzlers; putinsbuttboys; putinworshippers; readiness; russia; russianaggression; russianclowncars; searchworks; ukraine; unverified; unverifiedmyass; zottherussiantrolls
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-40 last
To: Steely Tom

Here’s another (true) Soviet era story: Moscow gave a certain nail factory a production goal, based on tonnage. The manager of the factory discovered that he could best achieve that goal by producing really big nails.

The manager met his goal, and got a commendation. But nobody could use nails that big. So they were just dumped in a back lot.

Ain’t communism grand? It’s so much better than capitalism.


21 posted on 03/25/2022 7:53:55 AM PDT by Leaning Right (The steal is real.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: tomd2

The State Department and DOD wants so desperately for everyone to forget the FAILED 20 year war in A$$crackistan for Regime Change (tm) and get a “win” from this.


22 posted on 03/25/2022 7:54:58 AM PDT by Basket_of_Deplorables (Putin is behaving rationally. The war is on Biden and Obama.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: tomd2

“”””However, in Ukraine, the proliferation of air defense systems, particularly MANPADS, has made flight below 10,000 feet very unhealthy. By the same token, dropping gravity bombs from above 10,000 feet, given the skill level of the Russian Air Force, which flew eight hours per month before the war, is not much better than using a trebuchet.””””

LOL. Such a BS, all of it.


23 posted on 03/25/2022 7:58:08 AM PDT by NorseViking
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: marktwain
A close friend was working in Russia a couple of decades ago.

A Russian accomplice and he were able to get on base. He used a fake KGB card to bluff his way in.

I worked with a guy who grew up in Poland, back in the '60s.

He told me that in his town, a huge Soviet air base had been built. It was completely surrounded by a fence made of concrete, huge. Like the wall of a prison, ten meters high or so, all the way around.

But the concrete was of very poor quality, and the children in the town found places were the wall had crumbled away, with holes big enough for them to walk right through.

So he and his school friends made good money sneaking food treats into the base and selling them to the Russians who worked there, including some officers. Sausages, candy, cigarettes.

He said the Russians were very nice to them, knew them by name. Treated them with kindness and affection. They probably missed their own kids back home.

He also told me an amazing story. He said he and some other boys were exploring deep in the woods near their town. Suddenly the ground began to shake, and there was a huge roar. A jet fighter plane flew out of the woods, from among the trees, and disappeared from sight.

He said the USSR had built an underground runway under the forest, with a huge doorway that was normally closed and camouflaged to look like trees and earth. Wouldn't show up on a satellite picture.

24 posted on 03/25/2022 7:58:32 AM PDT by Steely Tom ([Voter Fraud] == [Civil War])
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: tomd2
Thursday, US intelligence officials leaked a classified assessment about the performance of Russian precision-guided munitions in the Ukraine invasion.

Interestingly, this classified assessment was on the back side of the leaked intelligence documents confirming President Trump's collusion with Russia and Steele's Pee Dossier.

25 posted on 03/25/2022 8:00:15 AM PDT by Navy Patriot (Celebrate Decivilization)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nascarnation

I agree. The equipment being used in Ukraine is poorly maintained and it shows. The troops are poorly trained and it shows. Disciplian is poor and it shows. Basic military protocols aren’t being followed and it shows. This invasion was planned for MONTHS. That tires weren’t replaced, basic maintenance on the equipment wasn’t pulled, basic combat configuration wasn’t done properly etc. Even the JV teams have some standards. There is no excuse and I am willing to bet the same culture that allowed this with the JV team exist in the varsity team.


26 posted on 03/25/2022 8:00:20 AM PDT by carcraft (Pray for our Country)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: tomd2
Where are our Intelligence Agencies CIA/DIA with their reports about the failure of Russian equipment/munitions/capabilities before Putin's invasion?

There is nothing better than a real war to provide data on the effectiveness of an army's equipment/munitions. Before the war, this information was MUCH harder to come by.
27 posted on 03/25/2022 8:14:20 AM PDT by Chad_the_Impaler
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Thunder90

You are correct. This is trap to pull NATO into the fight. That ant Putin was expecting a 4 day war. Just like Hitler, his thinking was to just kick in the door and the whole house of cards will fall. His use of T-72s is pretty sly. Get rid of the old inventory first along with B and C ground units.

His biggest mistake, besides invading, is to conduct a winter campaign. Like Hitler, his forces are going to be stuck in the spring mud with the coming rain. How any Russian an forget this is beyond me.


28 posted on 03/25/2022 8:16:03 AM PDT by DownInFlames (P)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: tomd2
I remember reading an article during the 80's when the latest, greatest MIG had debuted and been examined. It was to be the tip of the Soviet Spear and, according to the Press, was so frightful that the West should just go ahead and surrender.

The author, an America Military aviator went on to say that, like many Soviet built prototypes, it was truly an amazing machine but the Soviet run assembly line would never duplicate the prototype.

29 posted on 03/25/2022 8:19:08 AM PDT by Feckless (The US Gubbmint / This Tagline CENSORED by FR \ IrOnic, ain't it?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: xkaydet65

“More likely that satellite imagery is their source. “

Mope. There is no source.


30 posted on 03/25/2022 8:23:48 AM PDT by CodeToad (Arm up! They Have!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: DownInFlames

Even if you are using T72 tanks, in an urban environment tanks need infantry support. Where is it? You have $4 million dollar truck mounted weapons systems being neutralized by tires rupturing. Why? Because equipment wasn’t routinely operated and checked, the tires suffered dry rot. 14 mile long columns of vehicles sidelined because of blown tires, over heated engines etc. isn’t a great battle tactic. The Ukrainians flooded fields and road prior to Putin’s invasion. You do not “ get rid of troops”. Trying to paint this as a clever Putin ploy simply isn’t going to work. It speaks to a very corrupt, poorly ran military with a bad culture.


31 posted on 03/25/2022 8:34:39 AM PDT by carcraft (Pray for our Country)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: Thunder90

Are the duds marked “military targets only” and the other 40% marked “schools, hospitals and nuclear installations only”? According to the reports I read here, the only destruction the Russians are capable of inflicting with missiles is at schools, hospitals and WMD facilities.


32 posted on 03/25/2022 9:15:14 AM PDT by hardspunned (former GOP globalist stooge)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; Bockscar; BraveMan; cardinal4; ...
All of Putin's corrupt henchmen stole fortunes off military spending. The best stuff (such as it is) has been exported to various other belligerent police state dictatorships, and whatever is left has been heavily attritted. It's a war of attrition, and a pyrrhic victory is the best that Pooty-Poot can expect. More likely that his successor will be the big hero for ending it, bringing what's left of the Russian army home, and busting the heads of the henchmen who haven't yet run for it. Some have. :^)

33 posted on 03/25/2022 9:16:09 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: tomd2

34 posted on 03/25/2022 9:19:50 AM PDT by Libloather (Why do climate change hoax deniers live in mansions on the beach?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Chad_the_Impaler

so true


35 posted on 03/25/2022 9:27:27 AM PDT by tomd2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: Steely Tom

I imagine landings would be a real challenge for the returning aircraft.


36 posted on 03/25/2022 9:38:46 AM PDT by T. Rustin Noone (the angels wanna wear my red shoes......)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: DownInFlames
his forces are going to be stuck in the spring mud with the coming rain. How any Russian an forget this is beyond me.

I'm glad I'm not the only one that remembers that fact about the Germans getting bogged down in the mud and making the winter campaign necessary.

I'd don't believe any one thing printed or spoken by the MSM on military matters. I'm just looking at the map of Ukraine and what I thought would happen after I heard they had invaded.

It's basically following the patterns they've used in the past.

They'll get all the areas with high Russian "minorities" to act as a base of operations.

I figured open warfare into everything east of the Dnieper in order to keep the water flowing to the Crimea.

Advance along the Black Sea lowlands and cut over to Odessa in order to establish resupply and cut off supply to Ukrainian forces.

Then up to Transnistria and warning Moldova to just "walk away, this is none of your business"

Then destroy L'viv and Rivne or all the rail and highways from them.... cutting off Kyiv and the rest of the Ukraine from resupply.

Then just wait. The Ukrainians can't plant food, can't get resupplied and can't rearm or supply their troops.

Russia will probably offer safe passage to civilian women and children and the Ukrainians and US/NATO will say it's a trap or delay them getting out in order to charge Russia with "war crimes" and .... lay the bodies of dead women and children at Putin's feet. It's just a cynical game that the US and NATO played with Ukraine. I don't think anyone is going door to door in a major city, when artillery and rockets can just make the problems go away.... and starve the rest into submission.

This isn't the movies or cartoons... it's just war. F#(king messy, deadly and violent with civilians ALWAYS getting the short end of the stick.

Could you imagine the media describing Guadalcanal, Iwo Jima, Italian Campaign, North African campaign or Normandy invasion in real time..... or the Dresden, Hamburg firebombings....?

The stupid is strong in the media. As for "war crimes" and "killing civilians or destroying civilian structures"...... do a little look back at Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria..... lots of dead kids and civilians there. Lots of civilian buildings leveled... but we did it with love and only hurt people by mistake. ...... it's war.. it's brutal...

37 posted on 03/25/2022 9:42:11 AM PDT by Dick Vomer (2 Timothy 4:7 deo duce ferro comitantes)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: T. Rustin Noone
They landed at the base on regular runways. The aircraft were lowered to the underground catapult using elevators.

Probably a massive clone of the technology they developed for aircraft carriers, adapted for use underground.

The interesting thing is it was probably never capable of militarily significant usage in time of war. It was (I believe) more of a demonstration project, to wow the suits back in Moscow and show them how invincible the Mighty USSR Air Forces were. Whether it was actually useful was of secondary importance.

Kind of like the ekranoplan. Some big-shot's pet project back in the 1970s.

38 posted on 03/25/2022 9:43:10 AM PDT by Steely Tom ([Voter Fraud] == [Civil War])
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: DownInFlames
Just like Hitler, his thinking was to just kick in the door and the whole house of cards will fall.

Or like the Bay of Pigs. Advisors told Eisenhower the whole Cuban people would rise up and hang Castro from a lamppost if we let the Cuban ex-pats storm the beach.

39 posted on 03/25/2022 9:46:46 AM PDT by Steely Tom ([Voter Fraud] == [Civil War])
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: HighSierra5

Thermobolics..(sp).. small just like our MK81s Check out the burn patterns on the buildings and absent of craters. Very big holes/craters are like our MK84s.


40 posted on 03/25/2022 3:10:12 PM PDT by VF-51vnv
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-40 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson