Posted on 03/25/2022 7:18:47 AM PDT by tomd2
Thursday, US intelligence officials leaked a classified assessment about the performance of Russian precision-guided munitions in the Ukraine invasion.
The United States assesses that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60% for some of the precision-guided missiles it is using to attack Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of the intelligence told Reuters.
The disclosure could help explain why Russia has failed to achieve what most could consider basic objectives since its invasion a month ago, such as neutralizing Ukraine’s air force, despite the apparent strength of its military against Ukraine’s much smaller armed forces.
The U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information, did not provide evidence to support the assessment and did not disclose what precisely was driving high Russian missile failure rates.
One of the staples on social media accounts reporting from Ukraine has been the very high rate of cruise missiles that have failed to detonate.
from Twitter
#russian dud missle stuck in kitchen in one of #ukrainian homes #Ukraine #Russia #war pic.twitter.com/jHQFnaAwMd https://twitter.com/DEFENSEEXPRESS/status/1504719056716324871 — Crimes Of War (@CrimesOfWarDoc) March 20, 2022
OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical · Mar 24, 2022 The United States assesses that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60% for some of the precision-guided missiles it is using to attack Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of the intelligence told Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/resizer/qwwdr8DbAE6Q-0vNoGPehbmt5E4=/1200x0/filters:quality(80)/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/Y5YDJGQTLROU3MKBTIUW4Q46U4.jpg
A missile is seen after a shelling, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Kharkiv, Ukraine March 24, 2022.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/exclusive-us-assesses-up-60-failure-rate-some-russian-missiles-officials-say-2022-03-24/
Exclusive: Up to 60% failure rate for some Russian missiles in Ukraine, U.S. officials say The United States assesses that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60% for some of the precision-guided missiles it is using to attack Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of the...
NoMoreMrNiceBlyler @e_blyler maybe they’re just drunk? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOp6eO4VgBYutnY?format=jpg&name=900x900
Problems with fuzing are not unknown. The most famous example of this is the Mark 6 exploder used in the Mark 14 and Mark 15 torpedoes of the US Navy until September 1943. The flaws of the exploder and the torpedo produced a dud rate of over 50% in the standard submarine torpedo. The problem was caused by the Navy weapons designers wanting to avoid the cost of a field trial.
Precision-guided munitions are essential in modern warfare. However, in Ukraine, the proliferation of air defense systems, particularly MANPADS, has made flight below 10,000 feet very unhealthy. By the same token, dropping gravity bombs from above 10,000 feet, given the skill level of the Russian Air Force, which flew eight hours per month before the war, is not much better than using a trebuchet.
If this report is accurate, it speaks to massive manufacturing and possibly engineering design problems in the Russian arms industry.
Here’s another (true) Soviet era story: Moscow gave a certain nail factory a production goal, based on tonnage. The manager of the factory discovered that he could best achieve that goal by producing really big nails.
The manager met his goal, and got a commendation. But nobody could use nails that big. So they were just dumped in a back lot.
Ain’t communism grand? It’s so much better than capitalism.
The State Department and DOD wants so desperately for everyone to forget the FAILED 20 year war in A$$crackistan for Regime Change (tm) and get a “win” from this.
“”””However, in Ukraine, the proliferation of air defense systems, particularly MANPADS, has made flight below 10,000 feet very unhealthy. By the same token, dropping gravity bombs from above 10,000 feet, given the skill level of the Russian Air Force, which flew eight hours per month before the war, is not much better than using a trebuchet.””””
LOL. Such a BS, all of it.
A Russian accomplice and he were able to get on base. He used a fake KGB card to bluff his way in.
I worked with a guy who grew up in Poland, back in the '60s.
He told me that in his town, a huge Soviet air base had been built. It was completely surrounded by a fence made of concrete, huge. Like the wall of a prison, ten meters high or so, all the way around.
But the concrete was of very poor quality, and the children in the town found places were the wall had crumbled away, with holes big enough for them to walk right through.
So he and his school friends made good money sneaking food treats into the base and selling them to the Russians who worked there, including some officers. Sausages, candy, cigarettes.
He said the Russians were very nice to them, knew them by name. Treated them with kindness and affection. They probably missed their own kids back home.
He also told me an amazing story. He said he and some other boys were exploring deep in the woods near their town. Suddenly the ground began to shake, and there was a huge roar. A jet fighter plane flew out of the woods, from among the trees, and disappeared from sight.
He said the USSR had built an underground runway under the forest, with a huge doorway that was normally closed and camouflaged to look like trees and earth. Wouldn't show up on a satellite picture.
Interestingly, this classified assessment was on the back side of the leaked intelligence documents confirming President Trump's collusion with Russia and Steele's Pee Dossier.
I agree. The equipment being used in Ukraine is poorly maintained and it shows. The troops are poorly trained and it shows. Disciplian is poor and it shows. Basic military protocols aren’t being followed and it shows. This invasion was planned for MONTHS. That tires weren’t replaced, basic maintenance on the equipment wasn’t pulled, basic combat configuration wasn’t done properly etc. Even the JV teams have some standards. There is no excuse and I am willing to bet the same culture that allowed this with the JV team exist in the varsity team.
You are correct. This is trap to pull NATO into the fight. That ant Putin was expecting a 4 day war. Just like Hitler, his thinking was to just kick in the door and the whole house of cards will fall. His use of T-72s is pretty sly. Get rid of the old inventory first along with B and C ground units.
His biggest mistake, besides invading, is to conduct a winter campaign. Like Hitler, his forces are going to be stuck in the spring mud with the coming rain. How any Russian an forget this is beyond me.
The author, an America Military aviator went on to say that, like many Soviet built prototypes, it was truly an amazing machine but the Soviet run assembly line would never duplicate the prototype.
“More likely that satellite imagery is their source. “
Mope. There is no source.
Even if you are using T72 tanks, in an urban environment tanks need infantry support. Where is it? You have $4 million dollar truck mounted weapons systems being neutralized by tires rupturing. Why? Because equipment wasn’t routinely operated and checked, the tires suffered dry rot. 14 mile long columns of vehicles sidelined because of blown tires, over heated engines etc. isn’t a great battle tactic. The Ukrainians flooded fields and road prior to Putin’s invasion. You do not “ get rid of troops”. Trying to paint this as a clever Putin ploy simply isn’t going to work. It speaks to a very corrupt, poorly ran military with a bad culture.
Are the duds marked “military targets only” and the other 40% marked “schools, hospitals and nuclear installations only”? According to the reports I read here, the only destruction the Russians are capable of inflicting with missiles is at schools, hospitals and WMD facilities.
All of Putin's corrupt henchmen stole fortunes off military spending. The best stuff (such as it is) has been exported to various other belligerent police state dictatorships, and whatever is left has been heavily attritted. It's a war of attrition, and a pyrrhic victory is the best that Pooty-Poot can expect. More likely that his successor will be the big hero for ending it, bringing what's left of the Russian army home, and busting the heads of the henchmen who haven't yet run for it. Some have. :^)
so true
I imagine landings would be a real challenge for the returning aircraft.
I'm glad I'm not the only one that remembers that fact about the Germans getting bogged down in the mud and making the winter campaign necessary.
I'd don't believe any one thing printed or spoken by the MSM on military matters. I'm just looking at the map of Ukraine and what I thought would happen after I heard they had invaded.
It's basically following the patterns they've used in the past.
They'll get all the areas with high Russian "minorities" to act as a base of operations.
I figured open warfare into everything east of the Dnieper in order to keep the water flowing to the Crimea.
Advance along the Black Sea lowlands and cut over to Odessa in order to establish resupply and cut off supply to Ukrainian forces.
Then up to Transnistria and warning Moldova to just "walk away, this is none of your business"
Then destroy L'viv and Rivne or all the rail and highways from them.... cutting off Kyiv and the rest of the Ukraine from resupply.
Then just wait. The Ukrainians can't plant food, can't get resupplied and can't rearm or supply their troops.
Russia will probably offer safe passage to civilian women and children and the Ukrainians and US/NATO will say it's a trap or delay them getting out in order to charge Russia with "war crimes" and .... lay the bodies of dead women and children at Putin's feet. It's just a cynical game that the US and NATO played with Ukraine. I don't think anyone is going door to door in a major city, when artillery and rockets can just make the problems go away.... and starve the rest into submission.
This isn't the movies or cartoons... it's just war. F#(king messy, deadly and violent with civilians ALWAYS getting the short end of the stick.
Could you imagine the media describing Guadalcanal, Iwo Jima, Italian Campaign, North African campaign or Normandy invasion in real time..... or the Dresden, Hamburg firebombings....?
The stupid is strong in the media. As for "war crimes" and "killing civilians or destroying civilian structures"...... do a little look back at Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria..... lots of dead kids and civilians there. Lots of civilian buildings leveled... but we did it with love and only hurt people by mistake. ...... it's war.. it's brutal...
Probably a massive clone of the technology they developed for aircraft carriers, adapted for use underground.
The interesting thing is it was probably never capable of militarily significant usage in time of war. It was (I believe) more of a demonstration project, to wow the suits back in Moscow and show them how invincible the Mighty USSR Air Forces were. Whether it was actually useful was of secondary importance.
Kind of like the ekranoplan. Some big-shot's pet project back in the 1970s.
Or like the Bay of Pigs. Advisors told Eisenhower the whole Cuban people would rise up and hang Castro from a lamppost if we let the Cuban ex-pats storm the beach.
Thermobolics..(sp).. small just like our MK81s Check out the burn patterns on the buildings and absent of craters. Very big holes/craters are like our MK84s.
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