Your analysis was interesting but I wasn’t clear in my post. My point was not to set up a NATO invasion route. It was to highlight Putin’s irrationality in basing the invasion on a fear of NATO on his borders. Reabsorb Ukraine and Putin will have doubled the NATO nations on his borders. While I believe Putin is insane I don’t believe he is irrational. He believes IMO he can recreate the Soviet Empire and that fear of his nukes will prevent NATO from responding to an Art V. His problem is that his conventional military, particularly his ground forces are too few to achieve his goal. Then he may opt for nukes.
Put yourself in the Russian position. NATO and the Warsaw Pact were balanced militarily before the Warsaw Pact collapsed. The nearest NATO tank was East Germany, Poland and Belarus away from the motherland. Now the Warsaw Pact nations that the Soviet Union murderously occupied and suppressed for 50 years are new virulently anti Russian NATO members. The Russians have never suffered any retribution for their murderous reign of terror. The history of the last 100 years shows in this area shows bloody retribution has been accomplished on an industrial level. Currently NATO outspends Russia 20-1 militarily, the nearest massive NATO unstoppable armored units will be on the border, 300 miles from Moscow. Putin and the Russians are cornered, guilty as hell, outgunned, desperate and alone. Putin and Russia are much more dangerous today, if pushed, than there were at the height of the Warsaw Pact.