Russian ultranationalist milbloggers have seized on protests in Armenia to forward a longstanding information operation aimed at discrediting the current Armenian government, particularly Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, for pulling away from Russia. A prominent, Kremlin-awarded milblogger claimed that ongoing protests in Armenia will not result in any meaningful policy change because the protests are allegedly “unorganized,” lack leadership, and the majority of Armenians are ambivalent about the issue.[120] Other milbloggers responded to the first milblogger largely accusing Western countries of “corrupting” Armenian youth with democratic values so they do not feel “craving or nostalgia for the Soviet past” and similarly influencing youth in other countries, including those not previously part of the Soviet Union.[121] Russian-Armenian relations have been deteriorating since Russian peacekeepers failed to prevent the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, and the Kremlin recently explicitly threatened Armenia if Armenia does not resume active engagement in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and resume its pro-Kremlin alignment.[122]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-6-2024
Putin was again offered to move the capital from Moscow to another city.
The reason, according to two of our sources in the Kremlin, is possible missile attacks from NATO countries. “If we strike at British (or some other Western) military targets, as promised , then a response is possible at about 50-60 targets on Russian territory. Moscow, of course, is among them,” said one of our interlocutors, citing the military.
Note that there was talk about a possible transfer of the capital from Moscow back in the fall of 2022 . Then a direct clash with NATO was avoided , and the need for a transfer was no longer necessary.
At the same time, there were three candidate cities for the status of temporary capital: Yekaterinburg, Kazan and Yaroslavl. There are now two candidate cities, but their sources refused to name them.
The interlocutors also noted that moving the capital is only a possible plan for now. Which is being discussed and proposed to the president “just in case, to avoid big problems if they arise.”
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2024
Russian President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term as Russian President on May 7 and stressed Russia’s need for unchallenged autocratic rule while indirectly calling for victory in Ukraine.[1] Putin thanked Russian citizens, the residents of Russia’s “historical lands,” participants in the “special military operation,” and those who have “defended the right to be together with the motherland,” and called on Russia to unite for victory. Putin did not specify what this Russian victory entails and only vaguely referenced Russia’s “serious challenges.” Putin has long justified his effort to destroy Ukrainian statehood by claiming that Russia is fighting for “historic lands” in Ukraine and coming to the aid of “compatriots abroad” who desire to reunite with Russia.[2]
Putin likely intended to acknowledge the war without setting heightened expectations for Russian prospects in Ukraine with his vague call for victory. Putin more heavily suggested that Russia “needs” strong autocratic rule, claiming that the Russia state and socio-political system must be strong and must resist any challenges and threats in order to ensure the development, unity, and independence of Russia. Putin added that his ability to fulfill his duties as president depends on Russian unity and cohesion and warned Russians to remember historical lessons “about the tragic price of internal turmoil and upheaval.” Putin has routinely invoked historical parallels to justify his own increasingly autocratic rule by suggesting that autocracy is a Russian tradition and has regularly argued that without unchallenged autocracy Russia would lose its sovereignty.[3] Putin notably alluded in October 2022 to the Pugachev Rebellion that challenged Catherine the Great’s authority in the mid-1770s to warn deceased Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin about challenging the Kremlin, a warning that did not prevent Prigozhin from launching his own failed rebellion in June 2023.[4] Putin had observed in 2022 that the Pugachev Rebellion occurred because the “weakening of the central power” caused someone to claim that he was the tsar. Putin’s inauguration speech was otherwise filled with tired, boilerplate rhetoric and vague calls for national triumph, and his focus on internal stability indicates that Putin likely sought to emphasize to the Russian public that his fifth term as president will continue to be increasingly autocratic.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-7-2024