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Russia 'Extremely Likely' to Default on Debts if Ukraine Crisis Worsens - IIF
Reuters ^ | 28-FEB-2022 | Reuters

Posted on 02/28/2022 8:54:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas

Russia is extremely likely to default on its external debts and its economy will suffer a double digit contraction this year after the West launched sanctions unprecedented in their scale and coordination, the Institute of International Finance said on Monday.

The IIF estimates that half of the foreign reserves of the central bank, which on Monday hiked interest rates and introduced some capital controls, are held in countries which have imposed asset freezes, severely shrinking the firepower policymakers have to support the Russian economy.

(Excerpt) Read more at money.usnews.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
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[The latest round of economic sanctions by the U.S. and Europe are likely to cause a sizable contraction for Russia’s economy this year, and could prompt bank runs and higher interest rates as the Russian ruble depreciates, the Institute of International Finance predicts.

Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist at the IIF, said on a call Monday that she expects a contraction of at least 10% in Russia’s gross domestic product and double-digit inflation as a result of the sanctions.

“This takes us back to the 1990s when the [Russian] economy was in complete disconnect from the global economy,” she said, adding that Russia will likely be forced to default on its roughly $60 billion in external debt because of lack of access to the foreign exchange needed to repay it.]

1 posted on 02/28/2022 8:54:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Gee cant they print more money? Like us?


2 posted on 02/28/2022 8:54:42 AM PST by MrRelevant
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To: NorseViking; Kazan; PGR88; McGruff; Mariner

Boys, get off those computers, go stand in line to convert your rubles into dollars!

Where do you live in Russia?


3 posted on 02/28/2022 8:55:04 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Whenever a Russian soldier is killed, an Angel gets its wings)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Hope it was worth it Putin. Such a moron.


4 posted on 02/28/2022 8:55:12 AM PST by Houserino
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To: MrRelevant

Printing rubles is the easy part. Getting hard currency is the hard part.


5 posted on 02/28/2022 8:55:52 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Whenever a Russian soldier is killed, an Angel gets its wings)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

[The Bank of Russia said it was still assessing the feasibility of whether to open all its markets on Tuesday.

Stock trading on the Moscow Exchange was closed Monday as the country dealt with the impact of punishing financial sanctions announced by the West in retaliation for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

On Tuesday, currency and money-market trading on the Moscow Exchange will begin at 10 a.m. local time, which is later than usual. It also said early morning and evening sessions on the Moscow Exchange have been canceled from March 1 until March 5, the Bank of Russia said Monday.

The new trading limitation builds on a lengthy list of restrictions implemented to curb the continuing economic fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Earlier, the Bank of Russia shuttered stock trading for Monday.]


6 posted on 02/28/2022 8:58:06 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Whenever a Russian soldier is killed, an Angel gets its wings)
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To: All

.
I looked it up a month ago:

US Debt to GDP ratio : 130%

Russia: 18%

Did I just see Peppermint Patty say that anyone that watched Putin’s press conference last week knows that something is wrong with him?

OMG!

Like Joe uttering gibberish?

Like when Biden said, I think we can win back the House?

Come on, man!


7 posted on 02/28/2022 9:00:32 AM PST by AnthonySoprano (And the Wuhan Flu came from a food market and Joe Biden comes from the black community )
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To: AnthonySoprano

A Canadian-owned Reuters piece. ‘nuff said for me.


8 posted on 02/28/2022 9:02:49 AM PST by Gaffer
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To: SpeedyInTexas
Reuters LOL.
They'll be fine. The second / third largest oil producing country in the world.
Maybe you can post some Propaganda from FOX. There have 5 days of B.S. on this subject.
9 posted on 02/28/2022 9:04:46 AM PST by MotorCityBuck ( Keep the change, you filthy animal! ,)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Well, that will move that finger closer to the red button. Nothing to lose pretty soon. Take others with you while you commit suicide. Politics is a dance of death.


10 posted on 02/28/2022 9:08:06 AM PST by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: MrRelevant

Yup. This is not just a war with the Ukraine, it’s a war on the U.S. dollar also.


11 posted on 02/28/2022 9:11:25 AM PST by ProudDeplorable (Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty. ~ Ronald Reagan)
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To: Houserino

He is a moron and I hope this is the end of Russia as we know it. US should take Putin out of the game before he does something crazy with nukes.


12 posted on 02/28/2022 9:14:44 AM PST by Jonny7797
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To: SpeedyInTexas

A tiger cornered is dangerous. Could prompt more severe responses.


13 posted on 02/28/2022 9:25:49 AM PST by Beowulf9
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To: SpeedyInTexas
China is over $1.5 trillion in unpaid debts to American bondholders (now their heirs).

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sen-mcsally-introduces-bill-calling-on-china-to-repay-1-6t-of-century-old-debt

14 posted on 02/28/2022 9:26:24 AM PST by Tell It Right (1st Thessalonians 5:21 -- Put everything to the test, hold fast to that which is true.)
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To: MrRelevant

Western Central Banks have cut off the Russian Central Bank from managing its Forex Reserves. the Federal Reserve needs to be in the middle of any US$ holdings it has, so its only logical - if the Russian Central Bank can’t access US$, they won’t be able to pay US$ liabilities.


15 posted on 02/28/2022 9:26:46 AM PST by PGR88
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To: PGR88; MrRelevant
One main problem with dropping Russia from the SWIFT banking system will make it so other countries will quit using the U.S. dollar as the default currency.

It's almost like Brandon is trying to destroy America.

16 posted on 02/28/2022 9:28:25 AM PST by Tell It Right (1st Thessalonians 5:21 -- Put everything to the test, hold fast to that which is true.)
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To: Tell It Right

“make it so other countries will quit using the U.S. dollar as the default currency.”

That’s laughable and only mindlessly parroted over and over by those who don’t have a clue as to why the dollar is the reserve currency.


17 posted on 02/28/2022 9:36:22 AM PST by BiglyCommentary
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To: SpeedyInTexas
All money in all currencies is represented by "a claim on future labor".

In the US, or currency is backed by US Treasury debt - "a claim on the future labor of people in the US.

What happens when debt defaults?

Claims on future labor - in the amount of the default - go away. In other words, the money supply shrinks immediately by the amount of the default.

What happens when a money supply shrinks?

It means existing debt becomes harder to pay off.

It means a nation's currency strengthens (less money to buy goods and services, so each unit of money is worth more). This is devastating to factory nations like Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

It means commodity prices tank.

What's happening in Russia right now could easily spill into China's economy and push them over the edge, since they're already on the brink of an extreme deflationary spiral because of their real-estate bubble popping.

Anybody think the Fed is going to raise? I don't. Never have.

18 posted on 02/28/2022 9:37:49 AM PST by politicket
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To: politicket

currency backed by debt is worthless.....


19 posted on 02/28/2022 10:06:54 AM PST by wny ( )
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To: wny
currency backed by debt is worthless.....

Not true.

All money in the entire world (save a very few countries like Yemen) is debt-based.

Power in our modern economy is derived - not from how much money somebody has - but how many claims on the future labor of others people own.

Controlling the future labor of others (slavery) is what it's all about. Most all of us are debt slaves.

The US Treasury needs to get back to issuing our currency, and not having it backed by US treasuries.

20 posted on 02/28/2022 10:26:23 AM PST by politicket
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