Posted on 01/16/2022 4:51:58 PM PST by SeekAndFind
A high-end estimate of up to 88,000 deaths and over 1 million hospital admissions could follow the ongoing wave of the COVID-19 pandemic over the next four weeks as the virus moves toward claiming nearly 900,000 lives in the United States alone, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
In an ensemble forecast, which combines data from diverse independent team forecasts on the pandemic, published Monday and updated on Wednesday, the CDC stated its low and high estimates on how many COVID-19 related deaths will likely occur from Jan. 10 to Feb. 5.
“This week’s national ensemble predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely increase over the next 4 weeks, with 10,400 to 31,000 new deaths likely reported in the week ending February 5,” the agency noted.
The CDC report states that the ensemble forecasts have been “among the most reliable forecasts in performance over time" but "do not reliably predict rapid changes in the trends of reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths." Additionally, the forecasts should not be relied on “for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends.”
The agency notes that recent “national total death forecasts have shown low reliability, with more reported deaths than expected falling outside the forecast prediction intervals.”
“Therefore, national total death forecasts will continue to be collected and analyzed but will not be summarized until sustained improvements in performance are observed,” the CDC stressed.
The outlook for new reported COVID-19 hospital admissions includes forecasts from 9 modeling groups, each of which contributed a forecast for at least one jurisdiction, the CDC said. However, the “models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior.”
For the period Jan. 10 to Feb. 4, the current forecast for COVID-19 hospitalizations is a cumulative total that could be as high as 1,017,725 or as low as 528,509.
Daily new COVID-19 hospitalizations could be as low as 38,534 or as high as 47,964 on Feb. 4 alone. However, the highest daily prediction for hospitalizations is shown for Jan. 30 when the ensemble forecast says there could be as many as 49,276 hospitalizations.
“Reported daily new hospital admissions can vary due to variable staffing and inconsistent reporting patterns within the week. Thus, daily variations in the reported numbers and the forecasts may not fully represent the true number of confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions in each jurisdiction on a specific day,” the agency said.
The latest data from the CDC also shows that the fast-spreading omicron variant of COVID-19 has been responsible for more than 98% of new infections as of Jan. 8.
A recently published study of nearly 70,000 COVID-19 patients in California found that while the omicron variant now represents the majority of new infections, it is associated with “reduced risk of severe clinical endpoints and shorter durations of hospital stay.”
CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky noted on Wednesday that the majority of the people dying from COVID-19 deaths now are still from the delta variant.
“Given the sheer number of cases, we may see deaths from omicron, but I suspect the deaths we’re seeing now are still from delta,” she said.
She also pointed to the recent California study and said the findings are consistent with data from South Africa and the United Kingdom, which could help the U.S. understand what will happen over the next few weeks.
“The risk of hospitalization remains low — especially among people who are up to date on their Covid vaccines,” she said. “However, the staggering rise in cases, over 1 million new cases each day, has led to a high number of total hospitalizations.”
In a briefing on Thursday, President Joe Biden said his administration was securing 500 million additional at-home rapid COVID-19 tests to meet demand around the country and would double the number of tests the U.S. plans to send to the public free of charge.
Lines for free testing for COVID-19 have stretched for blocks in some cities, and pharmacies have been struggling to keep up with the demand for rapid tests, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Some families are still reportedly spending hundreds of dollars on testing due to the crisis, while others are forgoing testing altogether.
President Biden urged Americans to either get vaccinated or boosted as the omicron variant surges across the country.
“Both vaccinated and unvaccinated people are testing positive, but what happens after that couldn’t be more different,” he said, noting that unvaccinated people who get COVID-19 are 17 times more likely to be hospitalized than those who get vaccinated.
So those that are unvaccinated but recovered are still 17x more likely to be hospitalized even thought natural immunity is much more robust by about 17x?
So much disinformation.
Depopulation has to be one goal especially with elderly. Reduce pressure on social security and Medicare program by reducing life span.
But these vaccines have to have some type of tracking technology based on graphene nano tubes as receivers and transmitters. Then consider the rush by world government to digital currency.
Why else would government be so obsessed with injecting children that have close to a 100% survival rate from Covid and would be better off with natural immunity.
Too bad they’ve outlawed early treatment and prophylactics, eh!
Does unboosted mean unvaccinated?
Thank you for posting with a source.
Thanks for the comment. The anomalies in the root data are enormous, even when one ignores the idiocy of the "official" China numbers.
Whether one references IMHE at the UW, the Johns Hopkins University dashboard, Worldometer or statista, there are too many inconsistencies between data for the various analyses to say much. Else, as of 16 January: ( 5,539,053 "global deaths from Covid" / 7,930,799,560 global population ) x 100 = 0.0698 % over a two year span of "pandemic." Accept that less than 7 one-hundredths of one percent is the actual measure of "global death from Covid" or not. But the arithmetic based on "official" says the pandemic has been essentially a media event.
People die of various viruses each year. Lump many categories into the magical name "Covid" and bingo a pandemic. But then accept the percent as above.
0.0698 % over a two year span of "pandemic."
“9 modeling groups”
What is their record for successful predictions? A model is just an opinion, encoded in software.
Oh brother.
The higher echelon trolls have moved on. I guess the back benchers have not gotten the word.
Brah... it’s over. Time to throw in the towel.
I refuse to get my “settled science” from people who openly admit they can’t even tell the difference between men and women.
I probably have Oh-my-chron about a week after last going to the big city. I don’t believe the testing. It could be just the flu. Got bad enough last night I went to bed to sleep it off and see if I got better. Still not feeling perky but not worse and maybe better. No fever to speak of and O2 sat still good. Doing the McCullough protocol.
Feel much like I did in June of ‘20 when I probably had delta and got over it in about a week. Really scratchy throat this time though.
I’m 66 and type 2. Some will die and maybe I won’t this time.
I remain a pure blood and increasingly untrusting of anything this gooberment has to say about this or much of anything else.
It’s always 17. Patriots are in control. I hope.
Another GRIM MILESTONE.... lol
Actually, the “mRNA treated” are more likely to get sick, to transmit the disease to others, to occupy a hospital bed and to die. There are nations with near 100% vaxx rates, yet their case and death rates are soaring. I wonder why that is?
BING BING BING, we have a winner with both comment and this under my reply...........
Roccus (First we beat the Nazis........Then we defeated the Soviets....... Now, we are them.)
The people who die don’t matter; the people who count the deaths are the ones that matter.
The CDC is a corrupt lackey of Big Pharma.
Once that needle goes into your skin with this mRNA Experimental treatment, Big Pharma and THE PARTY own you for life. On what grounds are you going to refuse treatment? For every drug Pharma makes, there needs to be several more to counteract the unwanted effects of the first thing.
Never forget, that when addiction to Morphine became a problem, government/Pharma invented Heroin. When Heroin became a problem, government/Pharma invented Methadone.
Anti-depression medicine has a very high percentage of a lifetime consumer. Anti-anxiety medicine has a very high percentage of lifetime consumers. Autistic childrens parents are lifetime consumers of pharma products. Children fed corn syrup products have a high percentage of needing pharmaceuticals eventually. GMO crops keep farmers and people depending on the GMO producers, especially the seeds which do not produce fertile vegetables. Monsatan is just another pharma company, making consumers for life.
Didn’t Walensky have media training after speaking the truth?
She almost admitted there was a difference between dying “with” Covid and dying “from” Covid.
It does now! 🤦♀️
“The vaxx-deaths happen at home and are attributed to massive strokes, sudden heart attacks, sudden deaths, etc.”
Ah, yes, very high rates of Sudden recently. I do expect more, which they will blame on covid and healthy unvaxxed people like myself.
“Unvaccinated who get COVID-19 are 17 times more likely to be hospitalized than the vaccinated.”
LIES! I just saw stats that 80% of the new Covid deaths were “fully vaxxinated”! It was right here on FR.
We must fight these outright LIES!
“Up to 88K COVID-19 deaths, 1 million hospitalizations possible over next 4 weeks:”
Get back to me in 4 weeks on this.
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