Posted on 01/13/2022 8:35:34 AM PST by UMCRevMom@aol.com
We bring an analytical summary that processed Sofija games specifically for the reader of the International Volunteer Community informaintepalm.
Russian propaganders seek to persuade national audience about the success of a special operation in Kazakhstan, which allegedly strengthens the influence of the RF in the region and will lead to the integration of Kazakhstan (the question of which in particular, remains open). But can we mark this procedure for success? It is probably a panic, sudden and untranslined Avantine of the Kremlin, which will have disastrous consequences for RF itself.
Let's look in more detail what happened in Kazakhstan for the last week. Chronology of events
A long scheduled price increase in LPG from January 3 was becoming a trigger of protests in Aktau and the bustozen. At that moment no one knew or did not reveal that it becomes a classic so-called black swan that causes extensive consequences. The ruling peaks of the Republic of Kazakh (KR) did not pay more attention to protests [1] until it has expanded to other regions in the next few days and become mass. Protesters began to raise the political requirements for the resignation of the Klan Nazarbaevových [2], which was under control of all power in Kr and despite the formal resignation of Nursultana Nursbajev from the President KR and its replacement of dependent Tokayev, which had no weight in the apparatus (so-called transit of power). It is not wrong with this corruption mode, it is wrong with the blame of the standard of living of most kazachů, especially in recent years [3] (during 2021 inflation reached 10.9%, the population's credit burden increased by 12.3%, official unemployment increased by 12%, without taking into account national and international migrants). In the morning, January 5, President Tokayev resents the essential concessions: refers to the government and returns state regulation of gas prices. At the same time, some regions introduces an exceptional state [4]. Despite concessions and announcement of an exceptional state, protests are radical, demonstrators occupy a number of official buildings. Russian propaganders served as "New Majdan" [5] and compare the burned almaty to the Odessa Home of Trade Unions [6].
Photo No. 1: Fire in Odessa in the trade unions house on May 2, 2014. Photo no. 2: Fire on City Hall in Almaty January 5, 2022.
It is clear that the cruise churches in the KR have no situation with protests under control. Almaty Airport is occupied [7], on the background of the rumor about moving Army units from RF reports military administrator Almaty findings of dead police with cut heads [8] (probably because the armed components take a more aggressive attitude towards civilians). At the same time, Pogromists and Maroders are starting with protests. The aggressive character of the clashes and pogroms explain a large share of unemployed youth (average age in KR is 31 years [9]), which makes protests more remind of the so-called Arab Spring than the "Color Revolution" in the Postsovit States. In the evening, January 5, President Tokayev adheres to the constitutionally given lifetime of N. Nazarbajva, namely the Presidency of the Security Council of Kazakhstan [10], and announces the launch of a counter-terrorist operation against "trained abroad and coordinated from a single center of terrorists". This operation confines the power of OskB, ie RF, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia. It makes sense to underline two important sites: First, from now on, it has to talk about the classic so-called Palace Coup, which made Tokayev with support for foreign intervents. Secondly, the operations with the deployment of the army was unplanned and urgent for RF, which suggests a number of indirect factors: a sudden change in Tokajev's rhetoric from concessions to the military operation during a single day, the nature of the operations with the movement of RF soldiers with the participation of 70 cargo aircraft (ie virtually whole Available military transport air force), sending an official UN announcement (required by OSKB for "peacekeeping operations") only on January 7 [11], ie two days from the start of the operation. What is particularly interesting, just January 7, he wrote Tokayev Uzurpator on his Twitter page in English about "20,000 in part of foreign language terrorists who attacked Almaty" [12], but later removed this report. OSKB Peace Units In the number of insufficient intervention (together to 6,000 persons), they are officially engaged in critically important infrastructure [13] and not announced by Tokayev of anti-terrorism operations (PTO) are not involved. This contingent essentially legitimizes the coup, which took place Tokayev, and acts as a live shield in the case of rebellion of the Kazakh armed forces or soldiers.
On 6 to 10 January in Kazakhstan, the anti-terrorist operation takes place, the focus of the resistance is gradually suppressed, Tokayev Uzurpator issued to shoot on protesters without warning. The official version, who actually "terrorist attacks" against Kazakhstan made, at the same time changing from finding foreign influence (with anecdotic retention of Kyrgyz musician [14]), which caused the official protest of Kyrgyz Offices [15], and deleting Tokajev's English written tweets about " Terrorists "which the author perceived as an official statement for the West [16]), to attempting to coup with retention of the head of the Committee of National Safety Karima Masimova [17] and by depictions of a number of armed component officials who are nazarbought relatives. Nazarbaev himself did not show up to the public, and no official statement from him. Despite the wheeled speech on his departure from the country, death or very serious state, Alexandr Lukashenko on January 7, said he had phoned with him, as if surrealism in this situation was not enough [18]. It is precisely from attempting coup, the official version becomes in Kazakhstan and the OSKB Member States [20] [20], which the OSKB heads confirmed on January 10 on the common online summit [21]. Because of the disappormment of the indisputable fact that Oskb hit the national conflict, however, they are permanently mentioned "Foreign Forces, which wanted to abuse the situation [22], without anyone clarifying the country of origin of these forces or the way of intervention. According to Vladimir Putin, perhaps the worst of his perspective of sin, which requires immediate military intervention, which is "using majdan technologies [23].
With regard to all the described above, we can go to the conclusions of "success" special RF operations in Kazakhstan and, above all, its consequences, especially in the long term. Conclusions
What really happened in Kazakhstan? The massiveness and radical character of protests, in all, completely surprised all both in Kazakhstan and abroad - which proves the fact that until evening on January 5, there was no official statement, as well as the lack of preventive measures for preventing or suppressing protests. Most likely to operate the version that we have to do with the fight for power between Nazarbaujev's successors who could sabotage regulations of Puppet President Tokajeva, the version of overall confusion in a situation where credible information about protests was missing, causing ordinary to violent spawn of protests in their first the days. However, unexpected support for Tokaja by RF, however, is explained only irrational and unreliable to a large Putin's fear of "Majdan technologies". This fear proved to be so great that Putin betrayed Nazarbajva and became a co-owner of the state coup from the official who was supposed to guarantee the inviolability of his clan.
For comparison, we imagine at the site of Tandem Nazarbajev-Tokayev, similar to Tandem Putin-Medvěvěv, when the Medvedev involves the army into the fight with Putin and him loyal officials. To do this, in order to fight again at "Majdan" and the conservation of untouchability sacred for Putin's function of the president of the state will have to keep Tokajeva in the office and promote cleanses loyal to Nazarbaeva cadres in Kazakhstan state apparatus. We should also keep in mind that the clan wars are clearly not committed to economic development, so the prerequisites for further protests are still remained here, which for the future means either issuing other loans, or the need to expand military presence in Kazakhstan.
From OskB became de facto service to call for dictators of Postsovit countries who can now repress the protests of their own inhabitants or use foreign soldiers in their own clan wars. In this respect, an extension of a corrupt gerontocracy organization is expected to be worried about their future (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, etc.), and building so desired for RF SSSR 2.0 on this basis. Integration will be only formal, because dictators will be justified justifies that their own environment can use the "emergency call" button earlier, just say magical word "Majdan". Putin (like Lukashenko) remains in the presidential chair until his own death. In parallel in their own countries, the armed ingredients will be increasingly driven as the only support of the regime, unprecedentedly rising their pressure on the population, which will be to prevent violent methods from preventing any protest attempts. It will greatly strengthen the isolation from the west, which could result in a new "Iron Curtain". The background and eloquent example of similar interference with foreign countries is not possible to negotiate with the US on any security guarantees and the distribution of the spherical effect. The price for RF Intervention in Ukraine is significantly increased. The Russian regime becomes a toxic despot, whose hysterical leader can not manage his own phobia. Russia opened "Pandora's locker" not only for OSKB Member States. Similar tools will now be able to use tiny regimes around the world, just establish an international organization for collective security or use some existing ones. But what is most important: A similar tool can now be used against Russia. It is worth special attention that January 8, Kazakhstan's assistance offered China within the Czech organization [24]. What prevents China from offering Russia, which is also a Member State of Luggage, helping forces in Russia, which will want to abuse old age, weaknesses and diseases of his current leader and take a similar coup?
List of messages and events mentioned in the article [1] https://www.inform.kz/ru/ceny-na-shizhennyy-nefttyanoy-gaz-v-kazahstane-yavlyayutsya-samymymymi-nizkimi-magio-magzum-mizagaliev_a3881181 [2] https://www.dialog.ua/world/243625_1641320413 [3] https://carnegie.ru/commentary/86147 [4] https://www.dw.com/ru/prýsident-cazaahstana-tokaev-prinjal-otacku-přítva/a-60333016 [5] https://rus.hottyk.org/a/31640303.html [6] https://t.me/voenkorkotenok/29709 [7] https://news.liga.net/ua/world/news/v-kazahstane-protestuyuschie-zahvatili-aeroport-almaty-smi [8] https://www.vb.kg/doc/411990_pogromshiki_otreezali_golovy_azazahstanskomy_siloviky.html [9] https://carnegie.ru/commentary/86147 [10] https://www.inform.kz/ronologiya-besporyadkov-v-kazahstane-kak-deystvat-president-tokaev_a3882990 [11] https://odkb-csto.org/news/news_odkb/generalnyy-sekretar-odkb-proinformoval-oon-obse-hos-hos-o-provedenii-motvorchesrio-v-ku/ [12] https://ru.krymr.com/a/news-president-cazahahstana-udalil-vit-20-Tysyach-TERrorist/31645182.html [13] https://odkb-csto.org/news/news_odkb/ontingenty-colectnicate-mothortrotvorcheskikh-sil-pb-b-ven-v-respubliku-v-respublik-kujkujkujakhstan/#Loaded [14] https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/61dbf01a9a794727c8128E33 [15] https://www.rbc.ru/politics/09/01/2022/61DAB47C9A7947596BFF9 [16] https://www.inform.kz/ru/tvity-prýzidenta-rk-sitaci-v-strane-nashli-pshku-so-storona-mezhdunarodnyh-organizaciy_a3882980 [17] https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2022/01/08/Kazakhstan-nazarbaev/ [18] https://www.rbc.ru/politics/07/01/2022/61D89609A7947E5E4EF9774 [19] https://www.rbc.ru/politics/10/01/2022/61DBE3519A79471FFB313E6C [20] https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/61dbb4349a794711597cf0a6 [21] https://www.rbc.ru/politics/10/01/2022/61DBE3B09A79472081ACC658 [22] https://www.rbc.ru/politics/10/01/2022/61DBEBD89A7947251D67ed2e [23] https://www.rbc.ru/politics/10/01/2022/61DBEBD89A7947251D67ed2e [24] http://russian.news.cn/2022-01/08/C_1310414757.htm
Long-term consequences of this gear "tension east" (German "DRANG NACES") are not particularly favorable for RF:
Like Ma Bell, the Soviet Union is putting itself back together...........................
TRANSLATION FROM RUSSIAN
Russian propagandists are trying to convince the domestic audience in the success of the special operation in Kazakhstan, which allegedly increase the influence of the Russian Federation in the region and will lead to the integration of Kazakhstan (in what form is an open question). But can these actions be called success? Probably, we are talking about a panic, sudden and ill-conceived adventure of the Kremlin, the consequences of which will be catastrophic for the Russian Federation.
Consider in more detail what happened in Kazakhstan during the last week.
Chronology of events
For a long time, the planned increase in prices for liquefied gas from January 3 became the trigger of protests in the cities of Aktau and Zhanaozen. Nobody predicted at that time and did not predict that it would become a classic “black swan” and would lead to large-scale consequences. The leadership of the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) did not pay much attention to protests [1] until during the next days they did not spread to other regions and became massive.
Protesters began to put forward political requirements for the resignation of the Nazarbayev clan [2], which controlled all power in the Republic of Kazakhstan, despite the formal resignation of N.Nazarbayev from the post of President of the Republic of Kazakhstan and replacing it in this post dependent and devoid of hardware weighing Tokayev (the so-called power transit). It is this corruption regime that it is not relatively accused of a decrease in the standard of living of most Kazakhs, especially in recent years [3] (during 2021, inflation was 10.9%, the lover of population increased by 12.3%, official unemployment increased by 12% excluding internal and external migrants).
On the morning of January 5, the puppet president of Tokayev goes to essential concessions - the dismissal of the government, the return to state regulation of gas prices. The emergency mode is introduced in separate regions [4].
Despite the concessions and the introduction of a state of emergency, protest is radicalized, the protesters capture a number of administrative buildings. Russian propagandists treat it as a “new Maidan”, and Akimat burned in Almaty [5] compared with the Odessa home of trade unions [6].
It becomes obvious that law enforcement officers in the Republic of Kazakhstan do not control the situation with the protest. The airport is captured in Almaty [7] against the background of rumors about the transfer of troops from the Russian Federation, the commandant of Almaty reports the detection of dead law enforcement officers with cut off heads [8] (most likely to aggressively set up security forces against the civilian population). In parallel with the protests, races and grauders begin to operate. The aggressive nature of confrontation and pogroms are explained by a significant proportion of the unemployed youth (the average age in the Republic of Kazakhstan - 31 years [9]), which in aggregate makes the nature of the protest more similar to the events of the “Arab Spring” than on the “color revolutions” in the post-Soviet countries.
On the evening of January 5, Tokaev President Self assumes the legislative post of Lifeline N.Nazarbayev, the head of the Council of Kazakhstan [10] and declares the beginning of a counter-terrorist operation against “prepared abroad and coordinated from the Unified Terrorist Center”. For this operation, he invites the Forces of the CSTO - RF, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia. Two significant points should be noted - first, from now on, it is necessary to talk about the classical “palace coup”, perfect Tokayev with the support of foreign interventory. Secondly, the input operation was unplanned and urgent for the Russian Federation, as evidenced by a number of mediated factors - a sharp change in Tokaeva rhetoric from concessions to military operation within one day, the nature of the operation on the transfer of military Russian Federation with the involvement of 70 cargo aircraft (practically all existing) military transmission aviation), sending official notice to the UN (necessary according to the Charter of the CSTO with “peacekeeping operations”) only on January 7 [11], i.e. 2 days after the start of the operation, it is especially interesting, on January 7, the Tokayev usurper on his page in Twitter in English wrote about “20 thousand partially foreign-speaking terrorists who attacked Almaty” [12], but later deleted the message.
The “Peacekeepers” of the CSTO in the insufficient for the intervention number (together to 6 thousand people) officially engage in the protection of a critical infrastructure [13] and are not involved in the announced counter-terrorist operation (who). In essence, this contingent is engaged in the legitimization of the state coup, perfect by Tokayev and acts as a living shield in the event of a rebellion of siloviki or military Kazakhstan.
During January 6-10, who, who gradually, the resistance foci are being exhibited, the usurper Tokayev orders shoot in protesters without warning. At the same time, the official version of the one who performed the “terrorist attacks” to Kazakhstan changes dramatically from finding a foreign influence (with the anecdotal detention of the Kyrgyz musician [14], which resulted in the official protest of the Kyrgyz authorities [15] and the removal of English-speaking Tokaeva tweets about “Terrorists”, which they were perceived as official statements for the West [16]) to a statement of an attempt of a state coup with the detention of the Chairman of the KNB RK Karim Massimov [17] and the dismissal of a number of security officials from Nazarbayev’s relatives. Nazarbayev himself, like any official statements, is still not visible from him. Despite rumors about his evacuation from the country, death or extremely serious condition, January 7, A.A. Lukashenko declared a telephone conversation with him as if there was still not enough surrealism in this situation [18].
It is attempted that the state coup is becoming an official version of both in Kazakhstan and for the CSTO members [19] [20], that the leaders of the CSTO member countries confirmed on January 10 at the Joint Online Summit [21]. At the same time, for the masking of the undoubted fact that the CSTO intervened in the internal conflict, the “external forces who wanted to take advantage of [22]”, while the country of origin of these forces and the nature of the intervention is not called by anyone. The main thing, according to V. Putin, was permanently not the hardest sin from his point of view, requiring immediate military intervention, “the use of Maidata Technologies [23].
Given the above, you can go to the conclusions about the “success” of the special operation of the Russian Federation in Kazakhstan and, the main thing, about its consequences, especially in the long run.
CONCLUSIONS
What happened in Kazakhstan actually? The massive and radical character of the protest obviously became a complete surprise for everyone both in Kazakhstan and abroad. This is proved as the lack of official comments until the evening of January 5 and the lack of preventive measures to prevent or suppress protests. The most likely the version of the struggle for power between the heirs of Nazarbayev, who could be sabotaged by the order of the Puppet President Tokayeva, and the version of the general confusion in the absence of reliable information about protests, which caused the lack of teams on the power allors of the protest in its first days. But the unexpected support of Tokaeva from the Russian Federation is explained solely by irrational and to the obsceneous strong fear of Putin before the “Maidan Technologies”. This fear turned out to be so strong that Putin changed Nazarbayev and became an accomplice of the state coup on the part of the official who was called to become the guarantor of the inviolability of his clan.
For comparison, we will imagine the Tandem Nazarbayev-Tokayev at the place of Tandem Tandem Putin-Medvedev, where Medvedev attracts foreign troops to fight Putin and the officials loyal to him. In addition, for the sake of fighting “Maidan” and preserving the inviolability of the position of the country’s sacred for Putin, he will be forced to preserve Tokaeva for his post and maintain the cleaning of the state office of Kazakhstan from the loyal Nazarbayev personnel. It should also be remembered that clan wars will not clearly contribute to economic development - it means the conditions for further protests remain in force that in the future means for the Russian Federation or the issuance of regular loans, or the need to expand military presence in Kazakhstan.
The long-term consequences of this dizzying “roaring east” (it. “Drang Nach Osten”) are not too pleasant to the Russian Federation:
The CSTO has become a de facto call service for post-Soviet dictators, which can now have other people’s hands to suppress the protests of our own population, or use other people’s troops in their own clan wars. In this regard, it is expected to expand the organization at the expense of corrupt gerontorators, which fear for their future (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, etc.) and the construction of the USSR 2.0 on this dubious soil, so desired by the leadership of the Russian Federation. At the same time, integration will be extremely formal, since the dictators now have the full right to fear that their own retinue can earlier to use the “call button” - it is enough to say the magical word “Maidan”.
Putin (like Lukashenko) will sit in presidential posts to death. In parallel, in their countries, more and more power will move to the security forces, as a single regime support, will be unprecedented to increase the power pressure on the population in order to prevent any protests. It will significantly increase isolation from the West, up to the new “iron curtain”.
Against the background of such an expressive example of illogical intervention in other countries, successful negotiations with the United States are impossible to ensure the safety and distribution of spheres of influence. Similarly, the price will increase significantly for the intervention of the Russian Federation to Ukraine. The Russian regime becomes a toxic despoty, the hysterical leader of which is not able to cope with its own phobias.
Russia opened the Pandora Box not only for CSTO member countries. Similar tool can now use odious modes around the world - it is enough to create an international organization of collective security or to use existing ones.
The most important thing is that a similar tool can now take advantage of Russia. Special attention should be paid to the fact that on January 8, the help of Kazakhstan offered China within the framework of the SCO organization [24]. What will interfere with China “to stretch the hand of friendship” Russia, which is also a member of the SCO, if in Russia there will be forces that will want to take advantage of old age, weakness or diseases of its current leader and make a similar coup?
List of news and events mentioned in the article
[1] https://www.inform.kz/ru/tensyy-na-szhizhennyy-neftyanoy-gaz-v-kazahstane-yavlyayutsya-samymi-nizkimi-v-regione-magzum-mirzagaliev_a3881181
[2] https://www.dialog.ua/world/243625_1641320413
[3] https://carnegie.ru/commentary/86147
[4] https://www.dw.com/ru/prezident-kazahstana-tokaev-prinjal-otstavku-pravitelstva/a-60333016
[5] https://rus.azattyk.org/a/31640303.html
[6] https://t.me/voenkorkotenok/29709
[7] https://news.liga.net/ua/world/news/v-kazahstane-protestuyuschie-zahvatili-aeroport-almaty-smi
[8] https://www.vb.kg/doc/411990_pogromshiki_otrezali_golovy_kazahstanskomy_siloviky.html
[9] https://carnegie.ru/commentary/86147
[10] https://www.inform.kz/ru/hronologiya-besporyadkov-v-kazahstane-kak-deystvoval-prezident-tokaev_a3882990
[11] https://odkb-csto.org/news/news_odkb/generalnyy-sekretar-odkb-prinformiroval-oon-obse-i-shos-o-provedenii-mirotvorcheskoy-operatsii-v-ka/
[12] https://ru.krymr.com/a/news-prezident-kazahstana-udalil-tvit-20-tysyach-terroristov/31645182.html
[13] https://odkb-csto.org/news/news_odkb/kontingenty-kollektivnykh-mirotvorchekskh-sil-odkb-napravleny-v-respubliku-kazakhstan/#loaded
[14] https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/61dbf01a9a794727c8128e33
[15] https://www.rbc.ru/politics/09/01/2022/61dab47c9a7947596bffdcf9
[16] https://www.inform.kz/en/tvity-prezidenta-rk-o-situacii-v-strane-nashli-podderzhku-so-storony-mezhdunarodnyh-organizaciy_a3882980
[17] https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2022/01/08/kazakhstan-nazarbaev/
[18] https://www.rbc.ru/politics/07/01/222/61d896609a7947e5e4ef9774
[19] https://www.rbc.ru/politics/10/01/2022/61dBe3519A79471FFB313E6C
[20] https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/61dbb4349a794711597cf0a6
[21] https://www.rbc.ru/politics/10/01/2022/61dbe3b09a79472081acc658
[22] https://www.rbc.ru/politics/10/01/2022/61dbebd89a7947251d67ed2e
[23] https://www.rbc.ru/politics/10/01/2022/61dbebd89a7947251d67ed2e
[24] http://russian.news.cn/2022-01/08/c_1310414757.htm
TRUE
America is trying to start a color revolution to break Kazahstan off from Russia.
Russia has watched multiple Eastern Europe and Southern Europe states fall to “color-revolution” and regime change, which are then quickly integrated into the US/EU/Neo-Lib security, financial, tech, media, NGO “network.”
Russia finally said “that’s not going to happen in Khazakhstan.”
What’s most ironic and fascinating to me is that promotors of 3rd world “revolution,” and a globalist ideology have been completely reversed from the 1950s and 1960s.
The US deep-state and its “comintern” in the EU, NATO, NGOs are now those supporting, planning, promoting “revolution” around the world in the service of their ideology.
What was going on at that lab in Almaty is the real question.
Nonsense. There is no evidence Putin has any plans to invade and takeover countries against their will.
Russia is tired of West, NATO, globalists and leftists like George Soros fomenting revolutions is surrounding nations, arming them and moving closer and closer to its borders. It is national security for the Russians.
We and NATO have been the aggressors.
Today, January 5, protesters in the capital of Kazakhstan after protests seized Almaty International Airport. Workers were evacuated from the building. It is reported by the local orda resource with reference to the airport press service, there are currently no other sources of information. Read us in Telegram: verified facts, only important "All day, passengers were told that the army was protecting the airport, planes were flying normally, and the check-in was carried out manually. Now the airport security service has informed us: "Sorry, the airport is captured. There will be no flights today," blogger Alisher Yelikbayev was quoted by media as saying. It is clarified that the blogger informs journalists from the hotel located near the airport – he planned to fly out of the country at midnight. Telegram screenshot On the morning of January 5, large-scale protests continue again in Kazakhstan – demonstrators first demanded lower prices, then riots escalated into confrontation with security forces, seizure of buildings. All the most important information about the unrest in Kazakhstan is chronicled by LIGA.net. On January 2, 2022, protests began in Kazakhstan. Initially, the demonstrators demanded to reduce the prices of liquefied gas, which increased sharply, but then the demands became political: the resignation of the government and the dismissal of Nazarbayev from politics. On January 4, in the protest-affected Aktak, the State Commission decided to reduce gas prices to 50 tenge/liter in the Mangistow region. However, the protests did not subside and spread to other cities, activists began apprehension and clashes with police. Tokayev introduced the regime of NP in The Mangistau region, Almaty, Almaty region and Nur-Sultan. On the morning of January 5, Tokayev resigned from the government, accusing him of creating a protest situation. However, the protests continued and intensified, in particular in Almaty was captured and set on fire by Akimat (administration). Earlier today, in comments LIGA.net, the press service of Boryspil International Airport reported that Ukrainian airports have not yet canceled flights with a destination to/from Kazakhstan. Read more: Kazakhstan storms. Nazarbayev wanted to leave without leaving, as did Putin. Here's what came out of it https://news.liga.net/ua/world/news/v-kazahstane-protestuyuschie-zahvatili-aeroport-almaty-smi
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
05.01.2022, 15:03
Alternation [changing] of power is a basic, necessary (although insufficient) condition for moving forward Everyone at the moment became experts on Kazakhstan, but, to be honest, Kazakhstan’s policy is so different from the Russian (or Belarusian) one that I would not be in a hurry to apply some familiar templates. But I would venture to remind you that when the former President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev left-not-leaving (according to the scheme of abandoning formal powers while maintaining real levers of power), I wrote then - such a scheme cannot be long-term sustainable, it contains a potential conflict between the nominal and actual leader. And the first serious crisis can break this structure. It is possible that this is what is happening now (and it seems that the current president of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, is trying to clean up the Nazarbayev cadres).
How Russian President Vladimir Putin looks at this.
1. If Tokayev cracks down on Nazarbayev’s legacy under the noise, or if the protest wins, Putin will conclude (or, more precisely, will be strengthened in the conclusion) that no scheme with a “successor”, with a seat in the State Council or the Federation Council, etc. can work for him; only a presidential galley for life, with elections in 2024, 2030, 2036, until death separates him from power.
2. Of course, Putin does not believe in any popular protests. For him, this is all another “knife in the back” from NATO, greetings from “Western partners” a week before the summit, which he so passionately sought for months. This will further embitter him: we should expect special abominations and meanness, the residents of Voronezh would generally proceed to the bomb shelters. And so, of course, the protest under the slogan “Old man, go away” can only be sympathized. Such a protest cannot but be justified.
The alternation of power is a basic, necessary (though insufficient) condition for moving forward. (Lee Kuan Yew, the creator of singapore’s economic miracle, is immediately recalled here; but he was the only exception that confirms the rule — and all fans of the “Singapore model” turned out to be ordinary dictators over the next decades.)
Well, the sight of “astronauts” retreating before the pressure of people against the background of burning police cars can not but inspire. It’s beautiful. Let’s hope that the protesters can bring about change, and what will do without bloodshed.
YES!!! FAUCI is a VERY busy man!
https://asiatimes.com/2022/01/kazakhstan-becomes-toxic-graveyard-for-us-diplomacy/
Kazakhstan becomes toxic graveyard for US diplomacy
As political winds shift, a US-funded biosecurity lab in Almaty could become a major embarrassment for Washington
by MK Bhadrakumar January 12, 2022
US and Kazakh officials at a ribbon-cutting opening ceremony for a laboratory in Kazakhstan. Image: US Embassy & Consulate in Kazakhstan
The Kazakh Ministry of Health has issued an innocuous disclaimer, denying social media reports about the seizure of a “military biological lab near Almaty by unidentified people.”
According to Russia’s Tass news agency, social media had speculated that specialists in chemical protection suits were working near the lab as “a leak of dangerous pathogens” occurred.
The carefully worded press release by the Kazakh ministry clarifies: “This is not true. The facility is being protected.” Period.
The intriguing report highlights the tip of an iceberg that has implications for public health and holds serious geopolitical ramifications.
Since the late 1990s, when it came to be known that the US was steadily establishing and building up partnerships in biological research with several ex-Soviet republics, Moscow has repeatedly alleged that such cooperation posed a threat to Russia.
These biological research facilities were originally envisaged as part of the so-called Nunn-Lugar Biological Threat Reduction Program to prevent the proliferation of expertise, materials, equipment and technologies that could contribute to the development of biological weapons.
But Moscow suspected that the exact opposite was happening – that in reality, the Pentagon has been sponsoring, lavishly financing and providing technical assistance to these laboratories where “under the guise of peaceful research, the US is building up its military biological potential.”
In a sensational statement in October 2018, Major-General Igor Kirillov, the commander of Russia’s Radiological, Chemical and Biological Defense Troops, went to the extent of disclosing a discernible pattern of the network of Pentagon labs being located near the borders of Russia and China.
STARTED UNDER GEORGE W. BUSH
US-Kazakh partnership
The US-Kazakh partnership in this field dates back to 2003. Kazakhstan has been an interesting “hotspot” for infectious disease occurrence and surveillance in part because of its history, geography and its diversity of host species. Kazakhstan has maintained infrastructure and a tiered network for infectious disease surveillance since the time of the czars.
The US-funded research projects centered on studies involving select agents including zoonoses: anthrax, plague, tularemia, highly pathogenic avian influenza, brucellosis, etc. These projects funded researchers in Kazakhstan, while project collaborators in the US and UK mentored and guided these researchers to develop and test their hypotheses.
The unassumingly named Central Reference Laboratory (CRL) in Almaty figuring in the Tass report was originally planned in 2013, with the US investing US$102 million in a biosecurity lab to study some of the most deadly pathogens that could potentially be used in bioterrorism attacks.
Rather than locating the new facility in some obscure tract of land in Nevada, the Pentagon deliberately chose a site near Almaty to store securely and study the highest-risk diseases such as plague, anthrax and cholera.
The rationale was that the lab would provide gainful employment to talented Kazakh researchers and get them off the streets, so to speak – that is, discourage them from selling their scientific expertise and services to terrorist groups who may have use for biological weapons.
But the CRL, now operational, is anchored on institutional cooperation between the Kazakh government and the US Defense Threat Reduction Agency under the Pentagon, which is tasked with protecting “US national security interests in a rapidly evolving, globalized threat environment to enable a greater understanding of our adversaries and provide solutions to WMD [weapons of mass destruction] threats in an era of great-power competition.”
Many nations have prepared for chemical warfare for decades.
Why Kazakhstan?
By the way, Germany also has a similar arrangement under the rubric German-Kazakh Network for Biosafety and Biosecurity, which is co-managed by the Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology (a military research facility of the German armed forces for medical biological defense).
Why is Kazakhstan a sought-after partner? Simply put, the country provides unique access to ethnic Russian and Chinese groups as “specimens” for conducting field research involving highly pathogenic potential biological-warfare agents. Kazakhstan has 13,364 kilometers of borders with its neighboring countries Russia, China, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Is China indifferent to all this? Far from it. Beijing Review featured a report sourced from BBC Monitoring in 2020 conveying China’s concerns in the matter. As recently as in November last year, a Russian commentator in Astute News wrote that these bio-labs are virtual Pentagon bases and demanded an international inquiry.
He highlighted that the Kazakh Ministry of Education and Science “now works mainly on Pentagon research programs.”
How could Kazakhstan, a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), have gotten away with such conduct? This needs some explaining.
Paradoxically, these biological labs are living examples of something sinister that has been going on that everyone knew and no one wanted to talk about – namely, the extensive penetration of the decadent Kazakh ruling elites by US intelligence.
This penetration has been going on for years, but significantly deepened as the 81-year-old former president Nursultan Nazarbayev’s “hands-on” leadership began to loosen and his family members and cronies increasingly began moonlighting (under the patriarch’s benevolent gaze, of course) – something akin to the Boris Yeltsin years in Russia.
Sadly, it is a familiar story. The Kazakh elites are notoriously corrupt even by Central Asian standards and have preferred to keep their loot in safe havens in the Western world. Unsurprisingly, they are hopelessly compromised to US intelligence. It’s as simple as that.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev walk along a Caspian Sea embankment while participating in the Fifth Caspian Summit in Aktau, Kazakhstan. Photo: Sputnik/Aleksey Nikolskyi
Russian President Vladimir Putin and then-Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev walk along a Caspian Sea embankment while participating in the Fifth Caspian Summit in Aktau, Kazakhstan. Photo: Sputnik / Aleksey Nikolskyi
Moscow watching closely
Most certainly, Moscow sensed that popular disaffection was building up and the ground beneath the feet of Nazarbayev, a close friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was shifting.
But it did not – or more likely, would not – interfere, since the US was operating through powerful comprador elements who happened to be the aging patriarch’s family members and associates.
Given the clan affiliations in that part of the world, Moscow probably felt it prudent to keep its counsel to itself. An added factor would have been the fear that the US might manipulate the ultra-nationalist forces (as happened in Ukraine) to inflict harm on the vulnerable 3.5 million strong ethnic-Russian minority (18% of the population).
Above all, the fact of the matter is that Nazarbayev cronies held the levers of state power, especially over its security apparatus, which gave Washington a decisive edge.
But things have dramatically changed this past week. Nazarbayev may still have some residual influence, but not good enough to rescue the elite who subserved US interests. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, a low-profile career diplomat by profession, is finally coming into his own.
Two of Tokayev’s decisive moves have been the replacement of Nazarbayev as the head of the National Security Council and the dismissal of the country’s powerful intelligence chief Karim Masimov (who has since been arrested along with other unidentified suspects as part of a probe into “high treason.”)
Indeed, Washington has much to worry about because, at the end of the day, Kazakhstan remains unfinished business unless and until a color revolution can bring about regime change and install a pro-West ruler, as in Ukraine. The current turbulence signified an abortive attempt at color revolution, which boomeranged.
Unlike in Afghanistan, the US Central Intelligence Agency and Pentagon are not in a position to “evacuate” their collaborators. And the torrential flow of events has shocked the Washington establishment.
Kazakhstan is a large country (two-thirds the size of India) and sparsely populated (18 million), and the CSTO forces who moved in are well equipped and led by a tough seasoned general who crushed the insurgency in Chechnya.
The Russian forces have taken with them an advanced Leer-3 electronic warfare system, which includes specially configured Orlan-10 drones, jamming devices and so forth. Borders have been sealed.
The mandate for the Russian forces is to protect “strategic assets.” Presumably, such assets include the Pentagon-funded labs in Kazakhstan.
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