Putin Demands No NATO Troops in East Europe

Russia on Friday published draft security demands that NATO deny membership to Ukraine and other former Soviet countries and roll back the alliance's military deployments in Central and Eastern Europe — bold ultimatums that are almost certain to be rejected by the U.S. and its allies.

The proposals, which were submitted to the U.S. and its allies earlier this week, also call for a ban on sending U.S. and Russian warships and aircraft to areas from where they can strike each other's territory, along with a halt to NATO military drills near Russia.

The demand for a written guarantee that Ukraine will not be offered membership already has been rejected by the West, which said Moscow does not have a say in NATO's enlargement.

There are no more than a few hundred UK troops on the Byelorussian border and most of the Polish troops are infantry. Both are there to prevent Putin's pet monkey in Minsk from flooding Poland with migrants.

As for why there are 100K Russian troops around Ukraine, my understanding is that with the disorganized appeasement minded and corrupt Biden junta controlling the United States and with the bought-and-paid-for Russia appeasers in the SPD the preeminent party in the new German coalition government, now is a very good time to create a crisis and start demanding concessions.

My guess is Putin's demands for a veto over NATO actions in Eastern Europe will be ignored but Ukraine will be left to hang. Putin can then keep pushing until he gets another puppet installed in Kiev.

30k Polish troops are still NATO forces.
700 migrants do not justify a buildup like this. Thousands are invading Italy, France, and the UK on a daily basis without any reaction.

There is no risk of a Russian attack on Ukraine unless Ukraine decides to attack Donetsk and Poland moves on Belarus.

The entire media campaign is likely to cover the planned Ukrainian offensive to reclaim Donetsk, because Ukraine is suffering a huge humanitarian crisis with 9 million people suffering from hunger according to UNESCO and mismanaged coal supply, meaning the powerplants are expected to go off-line in a month. They want the war to save the regime because it would make a pretext for martial law. As for the Polish offensive, I am not sure, but they failed to install their puppet in Belarus and I can’t explain the troop buildup by Poland any other way.

Given the wording of Putin’s ultimatum, stipulating a military response if the demands aren’t met very shortly, I expect limited strikes against NATO infrastructure, most likely in Baltic states and Poland.

The Poles by themselves certainly don't have the forces to invade Byelorussia with Russia backing Lukashenko.

The same is true for any purported Ukrainian "offensive," which would be an offensive to retake it's own territory. Ukraine doesn't have the mechanized units to commence offensive operations or they would have already done so. Most of all, Ukraine has not acquired the aircraft and air defense units necessary for offensive operations. I would assume they have upgraded the capability of what units they have. I would hope they have the sense to fight heavily and fall back to pre-prepared defensive positions to make the Russians bleed some more. They have a lot of space to fall back on. They can also preposition supplies for guerilla activity in the rear.

It wasn't the cakewalk Putin expected in 2014. It would be even less so now.

The fact that they don’t have the ability to do so doesn’t mean they won’t try.
Poland might hope it has NATO’s back, Ukraine didn’t have the ability in 2014, and it didn’t stop her, much less today.
After 2014 Ukraine didn’t try because it was restrained by the Minsk agreement and the OCSE mission between the sides. An escalation of warmongering rhetoric on the Ukrainian side isn’t hard to mention nowadays.
You need to take into account how the failed regimes operate. The military objectives are secondary to them, the crisis is a goal by itself. The regime is doomed otherwise.
The most likely consequence if the war is going to start is mass desertion of the Ukrainian troops indeed. 75% defected to Russia in Crimea, thousands defected to LDNR with armor and weapons later, making the core of their militia, more deserted and asked for asylum in Russia.

Since 1993-1994 time frame (due in part to 12NM agreement signed by Clinton), Russian nuclear weapons presence, and subversive and ISR capability, is almost infinitely greater, and many times closer to IS shores, and across Mexico and Latin America, than at any point during the manufactured “Bay of Pigs”.

Just one of several examples —

The Russian nuclear powered battle ship ‘Peter the Great’ has for the better part of 25 years utilized Cuba, Mexico, and more permanently Venezuela as a second “home away from home”. PTG has ots own battle group, which has consisted of between 5 to 8 Russian nuclear subs (historically to the present).

In the same time-frame beginning in 1993 to present, (historically to the present), anywhere from 4 to 24 Russian Tu-160 Blackjacks, have been stationed in Venezuela (with occasional visits to Cuba). These have been maintained, upgraded, and now new versions being flown —

“...much larger and much faster than the B-1B—with a maximum takeoff weight of over 606,000lbs and top speed greater than Mach 2.05. By contrast, the B-1B weighs in at 477,000lbs. The Tu-160s primary armament has always been long-range cruise missiles like the Kh-55MS—of which it can carry a dozen”), and now the Tu-160M ‘White Swan’ have observed in multiple locations across Latin America as well.

New versions of Blackjacks often now field dual missile rotators, and can carry 2 dozen nuclear missiles.

Additionally, while Reagan/Bush were successful in keeping Moscow from building some of Russia’s most capable ISR/SIGINT/ELINT installations in the world in Nicaragua, Clinton (and his CIA chief following his bosses stance) greenlighted the Kremlin’s Nicaraguan project. Today, CIS (headquartered in Moscow), regularly rotates between 2-3 Brigades of Spetsnaz to protect the Nicaraguan and Cuban sites (not counting Wagner, which we have tracked all North America). Much of CIS subversive activity is carried out from points in Guatemala and Mexico City, including (to 2021) joint organized/financed illegal immigration to the US.

As well, while not accurately tracked in the past 8 years, for over a generation (again ongoing), a few of the pro-US/patriotic teams I have served with, have long been tracking Russian “black budget” profit from their dominant
North American narcotics trade/network control. The estimates have varied since the 1960’s, but going into 2011, our FININT sme’s had Moscow bringing in (off-book) a range between $180-$210 Billion annually, with the largest FSB network profit from North America. It was regularly greater than FSB/mafia and MSS drug trade profit from Centeal Asia.

Also keep in mind,as of late 2019, the two greatest geopolitical influences on the government of Panama and Mexico were Moscow and Beijing.

And we aren’t even touching on now likely Club-K type infiltration into US ports on both seaboard’s, or Russian and Chinese control of Smartmatic, or Russia’s purchase of SCYTL (by Russian Paragon Systems, with election servers located in Southwest Germany).

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