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I’ve attended this event and for what it’s worth, there is a lot of establishment country club influence there. Mitt Romney for instance was able to pay for a large attendance of mostly college age activists, and when you can foot the bill for food and lodging on the island, you can easily influence the favorable outcome of voters.

Over 20 years ago, I met a couple while I was doing historical work. The wife’s great-grandfather had been Colonel of the 55th Massachusetts. At the time they were living in Washington, D.C., but eventually ended up in Mackinac. They are staunch Democrats, and I hope the news of this is giving them peptic ulcers. The husband used to send a printed letter with their Christmas card each year, extolling all the virtues of the Democrats, while tearing apart the Republicans. It irked me that someone would use Christmas time as a means to throw out political horseshit in their cards. After a while I stopped reading them, and tossed them in the garbage. I chose not to say anything to them, mainly, because the uniform of the woman’s great-grandfather had been donated to a museum at my recommendation...and I didn’t want anything I said, cause them to remove the uniform from display. I simply stopped sending them cards back, hoping they’d get the message, and stop sending them to me. It eventually worked.

These types of straw polls measure the support of fat cat contributors who often expect something in return for their support.

Unlike almost every other politician, President Trump NEVER appeals to these campaign donor types by making subtle quid pro quo promises behind closed doors.

For this reason, they do not measure the level of grass roots support for a uniquely not-for-sale politician like President Trump.

I suspect that a poll of grass roots Republicans would show Donald Trump’s share of support well above 90 percent.

I've been to the conference before in my more "active" years in the party. The Mackinac Straw Poll is heavily influenced by a consultant, usually Yob, who works to get a lot of young activists up to the conference to volunteer with the expectation they vote in his straw polls. Rumor is that Chief James Craig is his client, so that's who they were expected to support.

The fact that Trump got about 50% with that crowd says something. DeSantis at 25% is good as well as a lot of those votes are probably snowbirds or those related to them.