Taiwan has never declared independence. They are a renegade province.
China will send a sampan navy of civilians armed with cameras, bullhorn 🎤mics , and CNN satellite connections. It will be labelled “the great migration”.
If Taiwan fires on those people it will be a PR nightmare.
If America sends a fleet to defend Taiwan, we will luze 2 aircraft carriers and withdraw. Aircraft Carriers are the easiest thermal targets in the ocean and their resultant nukular plume will be spectacular CNN coverage.
Anybody can underestimate one side and overestimate the other, there's no great talent in doing that.
But Sun Tsu said it all -- if our guys know both their own strengths & weaknesses, and the other side's, they need not fear for the outcome of any battle.
My guess is our guys know how to defend their carriers against the best the Chi-Coms can throw at them.
If nothing else, they know how much distance to keep.
If Taiwanese are strong in spirit, they can defeat a Chi-Com invasion, with or without Kamala Biden's support.