[Kevmo]

I’m REAListic. Your exaggerated “100%” straw point is a good example of the LACK of realism in these assessments.

Let’s say the Chinese Thermal ICBM Anti-Aircraft Carrier missile is only 33% accurate. Then they would only have to fire off 3 of them. And they have hundreds.

[BroJoeK]

Kevmo: "Let’s say the Chinese Thermal ICBM Anti-Aircraft Carrier missile is only 33% accurate."

Here is one analysis:

"The DF-21D may also not be as fast as theorized.
While ballistic missiles reenter the atmosphere at speeds between Mach 8-15 at an altitude of 50 km (160,000 ft), increasing air resistance in the denser low-atmosphere region reduces terminal speed to around Mach 2 at 3–5 km (9,800–16,400 ft).
It cannot acquire its target until this point due to ionization blockage, leaving a relatively short time to actually search for a ship.
This could enable the target to leave the area if the missile is detected soon enough before it engages its terminal sensors, and the slower speed upon reentry leaves it vulnerable to missile interceptors.[39]"

Oh? Not really "Mach 10", only really Mach 2, making it vulnerable to anti-missile interceptors such as the US Navy's Aegis system.

They're not that good, we're not that bad.
And sinking the US fleet at Pearl Harbor is what got us into WWII -- a major act of war.