Posted on 07/27/2021 7:14:19 AM PDT by RomanSoldier19
TMCI is just starting to expand production outside of Taiwan but right now those Taiwanese fabs are absolutely vital to the west. There is no ready replacement.
If the WH can't hold the Chinese off until 2024 they will lose the Taiwan war, lose the economy, lose the election, and perhaps lose the country.
So Taiwan isn't really that important.
Great post. I really like your ideas.
What's mythological is the idea posted on this thread that such Chinese missiles are almighty & unstoppable, no counter-measures, no escaping them.
The Chinese just click their mice and ZAP! Half the US Navy has suddenly disappeared in clouds of smoke.
I'm saying first: they're not that good and we're not that bad.
And second, sinking major American navy ships is an act of war, just as at Pearl Harbor, which would merit a response similar to WWII.
And if I remember right, our current pretend President said he wanted to be the greatest leftist president since FDR -- that would be his chance.
I highly doubt that taking mainland USA is China’s goal. They have always been interested in regional hegemony.
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Regional, once upon a time. Now, they have world domination in mind.
Just read some of their speeches; look at their Road and Belt Initiative; their purchase of Ports on every continent - they were stopped at the last minute in their bid for the port of LA. The list goes on. The old timers - the CCP Mao Revolutionaries want to live where its clean - and that’s here. Slow and steady, until they finish their genetic weapons; the PLA is even now collecting DNA from pregnant women all over the world toward that end.
They want America’s clean air water and soil. They already have Civil and PLA police in Vancouver, BC. Its all about living room for the master race - the Han Chinese. See the Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian (former PLA Deputy Defense Minister for the CCP).
Where did I say they’re almighty and unstoppable? I didn’t. Hence you are engaging a straw argument.
Our CURRENT missile-shootdown capabilities fielded would be relatively ineffective against CURRENT demonstrated thermal-targetted ICBMs.
America is not ready for the sour news of 5 lost aircraft carriers in one day.
You claim sinking a ship is an act of war. So is blowing up a dam to cause tens of millions of casualties. And so is a naval blockade AGAINST ANOTHER COUNTRY.
The thing to keep in mind is that Taiwan is NOT a different country from China. It is a renegade province of China and even current state dept policy of “one China” reflects that fact.
If China chooses to blockade Taiwan it will not be an act of war. But if we sink chinese ships or they sink ours, those WILL be acts of war.
Where did I say they’re almighty and unstoppable? I didn’t. Hence you are engaging a straw argument.
Our CURRENT missile-shootdown capabilities fielded would be relatively ineffective against CURRENT demonstrated thermal-targetted ICBMs.
America is not ready for the sour news of 5 lost aircraft carriers in one day.
You claim sinking a ship is an act of war. So is blowing up a dam to cause tens of millions of casualties. And so is a naval blockade AGAINST ANOTHER COUNTRY.
The thing to keep in mind is that Taiwan is NOT a different country from China. It is a renegade province of China and even current state dept policy of “one China” reflects that fact.
If China chooses to blockade Taiwan it will not be an act of war. But if we sink chinese ships or they sink ours, those WILL be acts of war.
Here is one analysis:
They're not that good, we're not that bad.
And sinking the US fleet at Pearl Harbor is what got us into WWII -- a major act of war.
I don’t buy it. But such a thing would be interesting discussion.
This thread is about war with Taiwan. Since you appear to have plenty of information behind your assertion you should open up a thread on that topic. It’s basically off topic for this discussion.
If the Taiwanese won't defend themselves, then nothing the US does or doesn't do will matter.
Every scenario for defending Taiwan assumes Taiwanese want their independence and will fight for it.
I have no reason to think that's not true.
I think you've built them up to mythological status.
They're not that good and we're not that bad.
This thread is about war with Taiwan. Since you appear to have plenty of information behind your assertion you should open up a thread on that topic. It’s basically off topic for this discussion.
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Not really, as war with Taiwan is dependent on Chinese culture and the state of the CCP, not the military. All of which many of the posters here seem woefully ignorant about judging by their lame comments.
I’m trying to tell them war with China is not going to be like going to war with any other country and that there are many forces within China which mitigate against any large scale overt military actions, no matter the bluster.
And you better hope I’m right, else a lot of Americans will shed blood.
Our capability is currently the ability to shoot down 1 of those, while China has developed MIRV capability and can fire dozens at our carriers. Dozens of ASBMs are far cheaper than 1 carrier.
Your assertion is a [relatively well supported] opinion. Using an opinion as the basis for military analysis is invalid and off topic.
Regardless of your opinion, both sides agree that war against Taiwan is likely.
The Chinese will never attack.
Their Soldiers and leaders all wear dresses and play with dolls.
I have not built them to mythological status. Even the Wikipedia pages on chinese ASBM capabilities acknowledge the demonstrated performance.
Your determination to prop up a straw position to argue against is quite telling.
Argue against the real, not the invented.
There is plenty of reason to think it’s not true because even today, they have STILL not declared independence.
They’re more than willing to let Americans spill our blood over their conflict, however.
Sinking all our Aircraft Carriers with thermal-targetted ICBMs ... A 12 year old could target a 60kt thermal target in a cold ocean especially since the missile is travelling 100x faster.
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Except the missiles would have to be redesigned to carry conventional explosives yielding 60kT - and the DF-41 does not have that sort of lift weight. A 11 ton MOAB only yields 11kT. And would be a huge waste of very expensive missiles and then what would they do when the US nukes them - now without any nuclear response capability?
Don’t be silly carriers are very hard to kill, and there is no such thing as a thermally targeted conventional war headed ICBM.
You must be raising mega genius 12 year olds over there to get the DF 41 to lift more than 5600lbs.
Keep believing the hype and propaganda. My so-called opinion is actually fact - that you think its opinion just shows how unfamiliar you are with China and it culture.
I am saying that you go with the worst case scenario until you have actual data to work with.
Personally, I think hitting a maneuvering ship with the payload from a ballistic missile going to be tough - but we have managed even more impressive things and losing 6000 sailors to find out that their ASBM works and our ABM doesn’t is going to be an awfully high price.
And I remember reading how the USN didn’t respect the equipment and expertise of the IJN. I don’t want to see a repeat of that either.
Definition of terms.
You used 60 kts MOVING as a reference point for how a moving ship at 60 knots would be hard to target.
Now you appear to be using 60 kts as a denotation of 60 kilotons of explosive.
Please clarify.
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