Posted on 11/26/2020 2:30:39 PM PST by Drew68
According to new data, the U.S. currently ranks first in total COVID-19 cases, new cases per day and deaths. Genevieve Briand, assistant program director of the Applied Economics master’s degree program at Hopkins, critically analyzed the effect of COVID-19 on U.S. deaths using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in her webinar titled “COVID-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data.”
From mid-March to mid-September, U.S. total deaths have reached 1.7 million, of which 200,000, or 12% of total deaths, are COVID-19-related. Instead of looking directly at COVID-19 deaths, Briand focused on total deaths per age group and per cause of death in the U.S. and used this information to shed light on the effects of COVID-19.
She explained that the significance of COVID-19 on U.S. deaths can be fully understood only through comparison to the number of total deaths in the United States.
After retrieving data on the CDC website, Briand compiled a graph representing percentages of total deaths per age category from early February to early September, which includes the period from before COVID-19 was detected in the U.S. to after infection rates soared.
Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19. Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same.
“The reason we have a higher number of reported COVID-19 deaths among older individuals than younger individuals is simply because every day in the U.S. older individuals die in higher numbers than younger individuals,” Briand said.
Briand also noted that 50,000 to 70,000 deaths are seen both before and after COVID-19, indicating that this number of deaths was normal long before COVID-19 emerged. Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.
These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.
This comes as a shock to many people. How is it that the data lie so far from our perception?
To answer that question, Briand shifted her focus to the deaths per causes ranging from 2014 to 2020. There is a sudden increase in deaths in 2020 due to COVID-19. This is no surprise because COVID-19 emerged in the U.S. in early 2020, and thus COVID-19-related deaths increased drastically afterward.
Analysis of deaths per cause in 2018 revealed that the pattern of seasonal increase in the total number of deaths is a result of the rise in deaths by all causes, with the top three being heart disease, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia.
“This is true every year. Every year in the U.S. when we observe the seasonal ups and downs, we have an increase of deaths due to all causes,” Briand pointed out.
When Briand looked at the 2020 data during that seasonal period, COVID-19-related deaths exceeded deaths from heart diseases. This was highly unusual since heart disease has always prevailed as the leading cause of deaths. However, when taking a closer look at the death numbers, she noted something strange. As Briand compared the number of deaths per cause during that period in 2020 to 2018, she noticed that instead of the expected drastic increase across all causes, there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease. Even more surprising, as seen in the graph below, this sudden decline in deaths is observed for all other causes.
The CDC classified all deaths that are related to COVID-19 simply as COVID-19 deaths. Even patients dying from other underlying diseases but are infected with COVID-19 count as COVID-19 deaths. This is likely the main explanation as to why COVID-19 deaths drastically increased while deaths by all other diseases experienced a significant decrease.
“All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers. We found no evidence to the contrary,” Briand concluded.
In an interview with The News-Letter, Briand addressed the question of whether COVID-19 deaths can be called misleading since the infection might have exacerbated and even led to deaths by other underlying diseases.
“If [the COVID-19 death toll] was not misleading at all, what we should have observed is an increased number of heart attacks and increased COVID-19 numbers. But a decreased number of heart attacks and all the other death causes doesn’t give us a choice but to point to some misclassification,” Briand replied.
In other words, the effect of COVID-19 on deaths in the U.S. is considered problematic only when it increases the total number of deaths or the true death burden by a significant amount in addition to the expected deaths by other causes. Since the crude number of total deaths by all causes before and after COVID-19 has stayed the same, one can hardly say, in Briand’s view, that COVID-19 deaths are concerning.
Briand also mentioned that more research and data are needed to truly decipher the effect of COVID-19 on deaths in the United States.
Throughout the talk, Briand constantly emphasized that although COVID-19 is a serious national and global problem, she also stressed that society should never lose focus of the bigger picture — death in general.
The death of a loved one, from COVID-19 or from other causes, is always tragic, Briand explained. Each life is equally important and we should be reminded that even during a global pandemic we should not forget about the tragic loss of lives from other causes.
According to Briand, the over-exaggeration of the COVID-19 death number may be due to the constant emphasis on COVID-19-related deaths and the habitual overlooking of deaths by other natural causes in society.
During an interview with The News-Letter after the event, Poorna Dharmasena, a master’s candidate in Applied Economics, expressed his opinion about Briand’s concluding remarks.
“At the end of the day, it’s still a deadly virus. And over-exaggeration or not, to a certain degree, is irrelevant,” Dharmasena said.
When asked whether the public should be informed about this exaggeration in death numbers, Dharmasena stated that people have a right to know the truth. However, COVID-19 should still continuously be treated as a deadly disease to safeguard the vulnerable population.
The death rate has not risen. I suspected this is what the data would eventually show.
This isn't some nut job conspiracy website either. This is Johns Hopkins, the nation's premier medical university.
This is such a scam.
Actually the RATE should probably be going down. A lot less deaths and a lot more positive tests.
L8r
Almost like it’s a hoax.
And then you get to the end of the article where they all but say, "We know this is BS but we still need everyone to pretend it's real."
Kabuki theater.
2017=234K
2018=237K
2019=238K
2020=236K
If we really lost an extra 250K our death rate would be ~260K per month.
But it isn't.
bttt
Ping
I have no idea what this article is saying. The U.S.A. daily deaths have been climbing—2,332 for Nov. 25th.
It is a scam, yet we have people here who post on a daily basis, dozens of pages of fictitious bullshit (that no one reads) , perpetuating the hoax.
Drew68 wrote: “This is such a scam.”
Actually, it’s nothing more than ‘advertising’. In the 1980s, CDC fostered AIDS hysteria with the objective of increasing their budgets. CV19 is the new AIDS.
CDC promulgated the theory that a breakout of AIDS into the heterosexual population was imminent. CDC knew that the American people would not support vast budget increases to fight a disease that primarily affected homosexuals and intravenous drug users so they created the narrative that AIDS would rapidly enter the heterosexual population therefore all of us were at risk. Just to get budget increases.
Doesn’t that sound rather familiar? Fauci was a major player in this as well.
The hoax just hit our household
Well, maybe.../S
The link is dead.
Its attenuating...
Well damn just damn!!!
”A big fat Nothing muffin!”
That’s what I said after the initial onslaught of dire predictions didn’t metastasize. Their economy ruining phase of the we hate you Trump FLU didn’t pan out for them but they chided and threatened and we have endured a continued shutdown to keep the scamdemic alive for their facilitation of 2020 election rigging/fraud.
This whole ‘pandemic’ thing was contrived. ESPECIALLY it is
all too convenient given china joe with his president elect coronation with preservation irrespective of obvious shelf life issues. What’s been promised? I smell sold down the drain, real collusion and election fraud by foreign government for real this time.
Fact-checkers will be along momentarily to pish-tosh these findings.
“...who post on a daily basis, dozens of pages of fictitious bullshit...”
Pretty sure I know who you’re mostly talking about. It does no harm, though, and keeps him occupied, thinking he’s doing something meaningful and useful. Haven’t clicked on it for quite a while, since realizing how worthless the numbers are.
Interestingly, the link no longer works.
Perhaps the enlightened liberal folk at Hopkins decided this report is too dangerous to be made public at this point....
This article didn’t last long - It has already been taken down from the Hopkins website. One dare not write something that disputes leftest science.
Did anyone get a shot of the article before it disappeared?
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