Looking at the comments, I’m a little surprised that there is no inertia toward staying out of a China/Taiwan conflict. Why?
In my strongest opinion, US intervention in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would absolutely escalate very quickly with US bombing and missile strikes on the Chinese mainland. If the Chinese start losing (which they would) I think the Chinese would respond very quickly with nukes targeting US naval and other assets in the Pacific. Then it’s basically an all-out nuclear war.
What is it about Taiwan that makes it in our interest to risk a near-certain nuclear exchange or all out nuclear war? I find nothing at all other than a feeling that Taiwan’s independence should be respected and defended. But at what cost?
But at present, I don’t see how China could pull it off anyway. I’ve read some scenarios where they use thousands of neutron bomb-armed missiles and eliminate the Taiwanese military and most of the citizens. That would make sense. But they still have to occupy the island, ie move thousands and thousands of troops across the straits. No way could they do that now without comandeering thousands of fishing boats. Possible. Likely? Not sure.
But anyway, I would not want to risk an all-out nuclear war for the sake of preserving Taiwan. Not for one second.
Someone make a counter-argument why preserving Taiwan is neccessary to our national security and how that means risking a nuclear war that will kill millions worthwhile. Or, how you think a conventional war would not lead very quickly to a nuclear exchange.
There is quite a bit of difference between going to war to achieve a regime change (Iraq or Syria) and defending an independent country from a hostile state (Taiwan). We need to help our allies defend themselves.
I think there are a LOT of cruise ships that could be bough on the cheap...
[But anyway, I would not want to risk an all-out nuclear war for the sake of preserving _____. ]
* Leaving aside humanitarian considerations, from a cost-benefit standpoint, it makes sense to wipe out a nuclear-armed adversary with your arsenal if you are certain that no nuclear retaliation or retaliatory capability will be forthcoming. The problem is the US nuclear triad - especially the subs lurking in Westpac that can cremate the kin and friends of the Chinese leadership in less than an hour, along with hundreds of Chinese cities and hundreds of millions of Chinese. Frankly, any Chinese first strike against the US would likely result in the rest of the world, including Russia, joining in an all-out nuclear attack on China. Not because of any Russian affinity for the US, but because a China unconstrained by American power that has demonstrated a willingness to use nukes offensively is a mortal threat to not just Russia the sovereign state, but the Russian people.
Taiwan is an ally. Democrats are known for screwing the US Military and allies.
If a Democrat president does not defend an ally... the world’s wars will breakout everywhere from S.Korea, China in Vietnam Nam, Old Burma, Thailand, Japanese and Russian islands... wars in Middle East.
There may well be obvious reasons to protect our ally starting with the free Chinese.
Going for the Neville Chamberlain Award for “Peace in Our Time”, I see.