Posted on 11/20/2020 10:46:41 AM PST by semimojo
Even with a new president and political party soon in charge of the White House, the nation’s economic standoff continues. Notwithstanding President-elect Joe Biden’s solid popular vote victory, last week’s election failed to deliver the kind of transformative reorientation of the nation’s political-economic map that Democrats (and some Republicans) had hoped for. The data confirms that the election sharpened the striking geographic divide between red and blue America, instead of dispelling it...
This time, Biden’s winning base in 477 counties encompasses fully 70% of America’s economic activity, while Trump’s losing base of 2,497 counties represents just 29% of the economy. (Votes are still outstanding in 110 mostly low-output counties, and this piece will be updated as new data is reported.)
In short, 2020’s map continues to reflect a striking split between the large, dense, metropolitan counties that voted Democratic and the mostly exurban, small-town, or rural counties that voted Republican. Blue and red America reflect two very different economies: one oriented to diverse, often college-educated workers in professional and digital services occupations, and the other whiter, less-educated, and more dependent on “traditional” industries.
With that said, it would be wrong to describe this as a completely static map. While the metropolitan/ nonmetropolitan dichotomy remained starkly persistent, 2020 election returns produced nontrivial movement, as Biden added modestly to the Democrats’ metropolitan base and significantly to its vote base. Most notably, Biden flipped seven of the nation’s 100 highest-output counties, strengthening the link between these core economic hubs and the Democratic Party. More specifically, Biden flipped half of the 10 most economically significant counties Trump won in 2016, including Phoenix’s Maricopa County; Dallas-Fort Worth’s Tarrant County; Jacksonville, Fla.’s Duval County; Morris County in New Jersey; and Tampa-St. Petersburg, Fla.’s Pinellas County...
Why does this matter? This economic rift that persists in dividing the nation is a problem because it underscores the near-certainty of both continued clashes between the political parties and continued alienation and misunderstandings.
To start with, the 2020’s sharpened economic divide forecasts gridlock in Congress and between the White House and Senate on the most important issues of economic policy. The problem—as we have witnessed over the past decade and are likely to continue seeing—is not only that Democrats and Republicans disagree on issues of culture, identity, and power, but that they represent radically different swaths of the economy. Democrats represent voters who overwhelmingly reside in the nation’s diverse economic centers, and thus tend to prioritize housing affordability, an improved social safety net, transportation infrastructure, and racial justice. Jobs in blue America also disproportionately rely on national R&D investment, technology leadership, and services exports.
By contrast, Republicans represent an economic base situated in the nation’s struggling small towns and rural areas. Prosperity there remains out of reach for many, and the party sees no reason to consider the priorities and needs of the nation’s metropolitan centers. That is not a scenario for economic consensus or achievement.
At the same time, the results from last week’s election likely underscore fundamental problems of economic alienation and estrangement. Specifically, Trump’s anti-establishment appeal suggests that a sizable portion of the country continues to feel little connection to the nation’s core economic enterprises, and chose to channel that animosity into a candidate who promised not to build up all parts of the country, but rather to vilify groups who didn’t resemble his base.
It means you have been scammed if you actually believe that.
Too generalized. You’ll find many red people in blue counties. The blues are the looters and moochers rent-seekers and criminals. They always outnumber to decent hard working people in those sectors.
They can’t do it without food.
Seen “The Hunger Games”, right?
It means it’s over.
This country cannot go on as is.
Can we have an honest civil war, without other countries and the filthy UN getting involved, no.
Can we have bloodless secession, nope.
We don’t have free and honest elections.
We will have to make a decision before the guns are taken, and they will be.
What is their definition of “economic activity” and how much of it is just government moving around stolen money?
Its a very complex calculation. Cities like NY, LA, etc… have a lot of services like finance, legal, government, etc… which count as economic activity and GDP. I tend to view at least part of that activity as parasitical, not productive.
Do 477 counties really count for 70% of “America’s economy?” who knows?
Also, how many counties did Biden really “win?”
Are they counting those counties that have been stolen through election fraud going back for decades, discouraging voters and forcing productive people out?
False premise.
I don’t see why it’s a problem that America’s people don’t all think the same way.
It means a weak economy, like under Obama. Democrat politicians will get rich though.
I’m sorry but your wrong. Have a few friends in the IT fields and they are hard working, high earning, and very left wing. In fact If you look at how the cities were the big IT companies reside they vote heavily democratic.
So what? My wife commutes into a blue county for work, the same county that has the worst COVID restrictions, the worst debt, the worst police policies, etc. The same work is being done fine, remotely, now.
So, tell me again why the blue county is “so key?”
It is just that billionaires live their and corporate headquarters report income from those addresses.
They also have most of the poor, homeless and unemployed. They have the greatest income inequality.
Exactly. Cut the food supply and see what happens. I guess they will just have labor camps for those of us that don’t submit.
Maybe because they have the job you and your wife rely on?
The entire premise is based on a fraud.
Did Biden actually “win” Maricopa County? With 5% more Republicans then Democrats? A place that hasn’t gone for a Democrat since 1992?
What sort of popular enthusiasm would generate such a result? There was none. He couldn’t get a pack of coyotes to come out for him, even if he was offering scraps.
Trump by contrast brought out tens of thousands. I was there just a month ago when that was happening. AF1 caused backups at Sky Harbor, and crowds in Tucson and Prescott were massive.
But Biden does something that hasn’t been done in 30 years?
BS.
It's more than that. I don't see how anyone can argue that there isn't more economic activity in higher-density locations.
It doesn't make them better or worse, it's just reality.
No need for anyone to be defensive about it.
I agree completely.
I think the whole red/blue thing leads to stupid over-generalizations about geographies all the time.
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