Posted on 11/03/2020 5:45:18 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 673,828
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 558,412
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 115,416
“A stock-market election indicator that is often ridiculed for its randomness but whose record of prescience is hard to ignore, at least completely, is about to settle in Donald Trump’s favor.
A rally into Election Day is pushing the S&P 500’s performance over the past three months into positive territory — a comeback for the indicator which turned negative last week. In some circles, the rebound may be seen as boding well for President Trump’s bid for re-election given that a rising market has tended to precede a victory for the sitting party 86% of the time since 1928.”
ED GOP up 209K. Not bad.
Looking at Ballotpedia.
Machine recounts in Fl. are triggered by a .5% margin, i.e 1/2 of a percent, there is no manual recount at the .5 margin. If the machine recount comes in with a .25 or less margin then a manual recount is required. The second recount only looks at ballots with overvotes or undervotes and the second recount only happens if the number of those ballots could change the results. Doesn’t look like ballots rejected for various other reasons are considered.
There is no way for a candidate to request a recount.
If Republicans end the day with 200K advantage...
Let us say Republicans get 3% Independents (same as 2016)that adds another 90K , then if D-R crossover rate is R+3 that would be another 120K ....would put the win for Republicans at over 400K or roughly 3-4%
GOP up 99K overall. Slowing a little.
That number, please explain what it’s representing.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z2C8Zp_qGcVbYanxjHo1CoNy6RuM0PRRG5j47nRerk8/edit#gid=0
Slowed at 11:20 through 12:20 but still did 25k in the last hour
The number of registered Republicans in Florida who have voted over registered Democrats. What we don't know is who they voted for on either side and who the independents voted for but it is still better to be ahead in this number. You can safely assume 90% of registered Republicans are voting for President Trump.
Go here:
So, the 125k advantage by Dems has already been surpassed today?
Wiped out by almost 100K
Yes.
Looks like we had a run this morning with excited Republicans wanting to cast votes. Now a steady 20K per hour gain.
That would put us somewhere around +220K by close.
Maybe a little higher if we have a rush this afternoon by voters getting off work then we hit 250K who knows maybe more.
I’ll take that :) If we split independents and crossovers it is a nice 2% win. If we get 3% independents like 2016, add another 90K to the margin. We can lose 3% of the independents and still pull out a win of over 1%.
R over 8 from 2018.
R + 105K now. Halfway to the comfort zone.
It's been stated that 25% of those attending Trump's live rallies are reported as being Dems who support and are willing to vote for Trump.
That would add to the win.
AZ now at .56 for Trump on PredictIT.
Just one more state...
This would be amazing if it continues to hold up:
Early morning turnout in Clark County, NV: 16,360
9:32am
Dems 4,455
Reps 6,809 (+2,354)
Other 5,096
@RalstonReports
@sorceror43
Dems outvoted Reps by 22k ballots on ED in 2016 in Clark.
So, the 125k advantage by Dems has already been surpassed today?
Yes registered Reps now up +105 net
ended at +60 net in 2016 when after all the votes were counted
trump won state by 113K total votes
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