Posted on 11/02/2020 2:09:52 PM PST by NautiNurse
Hurricane Eta formed in the Western Caribbean Sea. Short term impact threatens Central America from Nicaragua to Honduras, Guatemala and Belize. The slow moving storm is forecast to circle back into the Western Caribbean by late week.
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Tropical Tidbits by Levi Cowan
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I have a temperature forecast for tonight of 47 degrees, it's getting to cold for hurricanes, right?
That's pretty chilly. When is Indian Summer?
RECON found 927 mb with 15 kt of winds so it might 926 or so
also looks like eyewall replacement cycle is underway
so recon may have missed it’s peak
next pass 922mb
Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has found that Eta has
explosively deepened into a strong category 4 hurricane with maximum
sustained winds of 130 kt and a minimum central pressure of 927 mb.
Eta has maintained a small 10-nmi-wide eye that is evident in
satellite imagery and on the San Andreas, Colombia, weather radar.
The radar data also suggest that concentric eyewalls may be forming,
which would be an indication of the onset of an eyewall replacement
cycle (ERC) and a capping of Eta’s intensity and also an end to the
rapid intensification cycle of the past 36 hours. The initial
intensity of 130 kt kt is based on 700-mb flight-level winds of 137
kt and SFMR surface winds of 130 kt. Some additional strengthening
is expected, and Eta could become a category 5 hurricane before
landfall occurs. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it
moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America.
Eta has slowed and is now moving southwestward or 245/06 kt. There
is no significant change to previous track forecast reasoning. A
mid-level ridge over the south-central United States should steer
Eta west-southwestward toward the coast of Nicaragua with the
hurricane making landfall early Tuesday. After landfall, Eta should
turn westward and then west-northwestward, and move across Central
America through Thursday. Eta’s low-level circulation may not
survive its passage over the mountainous terrain of Central America,
but most of the global models continue to depict a cyclone or its
remnants moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by late-week and
into the weekend. Therefore, the new NHC track forecast continues to
show the system emerging over the northwestern Caribbean late in the
period, although this portion of the track forecast remains
uncertain.
Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes
landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be
a major threat.
Key Messages:
1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta’s eyewall moves
onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua tonight or early
Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds are beginning to reach the
coast within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua, and residents
there should have completed their preparations. A Tropical Storm
Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras.
2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above
normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.
Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete.
3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely
lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river
flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides
in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also
possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern
Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 14.1N 82.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 13.9N 83.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 13.9N 84.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1200Z 13.9N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z 14.3N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/1200Z 14.8N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0000Z 15.4N 88.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0000Z 16.8N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0000Z 17.9N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
Unbelievable. I’ve never seen a hurricane this strong that far south. Now at 130 kt and 927mb. Bananas.
An Indian summer is a period of unseasonably warm, dry weather that sometimes occurs in autumn in temperate regions of the northern hemisphere during September to November. In an article on the US National Weather Service's website, weather historian William R. Deedler writes that Indian Summer can be defined as "any spell of warm, quiet, hazy weather that may occur in October or November."
Scata.
Caca.
Mierda.
5.56mm
Many years ago, there was a typhoon named Tracy that clobbered Australia. The headline from the local paper was "Tracy Blows Sydney".
That is awful!
They are NE and getting stronger with gusts well over 40 no telling how high the sustained winds are.Darn thing a few days out is pointed at my house.
It finally made landfall, albeit slowly.
The cone of doom does not look well for South FL.
Where will it go from there?
Can't happen. We have the brand new generators (one dual fuel with inverter, one battery inverter) which both work beautifully. They are storm shields.
Good luck.
What a mess ((((Hugs))))
Four straight days of near-constant rain and winds here in Western Panama. It’s almost as if the storm is turning south instead of north. One spot in Costa Rica is reporting over eight inches of rain.
Power was out here for about six hours. So my landlord decides it’s a great time for us all to go into town for dinner! I haven’t even gone grocery shopping and I’m starting to run low. What a week!
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