Posted on 11/02/2020 8:10:50 AM PST by Qiviut
On Friday, the Des Moines Register threw a hand grenade into the entire polling industry. Widely acclaimed as the “gold standard” of polls, the Register had Trump winning Iowa by 7 points—right where the Register had him in 2016. The headlines blared that this was a harbinger in 2016 about other Midwestern states that Trump eventually won, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
And none of the stories mentioned that in 2016 the register . . . was wrong. It was low. Trump won Iowa not by 7, but by 10.
Suddenly, over the weekend, many—but not all—other polls showed a rapidly tightening race. Politico, the official mouthpiece of the Democrat Party, screamed “If Pennsylvania Goes, So Will Go the Country.” Overnight, liberal publications that had put Joe Biden so far ahead Trump would need ships from the Space Force to catch him warned that the race was close. In Florida, where Biden saw virtually any hope of taking the state slip away, the consultants were already sniping at each other for “who lost Florida.” The fact that Republicans actually led in In-Person-Early-Voting in both Palm Beach and Miami-Dade Counties led to reports the Biden campaign was “worried”.
On Sunday, Richard Baris told me that in Wisconsin, his own polling might need to be readjusted because of the massive turnout in the red suburban counties around Milwaukee. And local Democrat operatives for the first time openly began to criticize the campaign strategy for the last several months of hyping the China Virus and not sending out field staff to knock on doors. As I have been insisting for months, the strategy was haphazard and ill-thought-out. There was no way the Democrats could simultaneously tout the dangers of the China Virus and still goose turnout on election day. The two were mutually exclusive.
This strategy, as I’ve said all along, destroyed the college vote. Look at the latest from Wisconsin [see below] where 18-29 year olds are only 3% of the vote. But this is highly misleading, because the correct age group to evaluate here is 18-24, not 29. The 18-24 are the college students. If 18-29 are only 3%, the college group must almost be in negative numbers. But remember! This group needed to be way up—perhaps as high as 30% to the good by election day—to offset the number of students not on campuses. This number portends a collapse of Democrat votes, not just in Wisconsin, but across the country.
Wisconsin Early Return Ballots:1,525,415 44% R / 36% D / 20% NP
A: 18-29 3% / 30-39 7% / 40-49 10% / 50-64 26% / 65+ 36%
Asian 1.6% / White 77% / Hispanic 3% / AfAm 3%
HS Diploma 21% / Bach Degree 23% / Grad Degree+ 12%
1st Time Voting/New Regs: 7.6% https://t.co/Zwc2KpkpU2 pic.twitter.com/5vJjgLwynY— L2 Data (@L2political) November 1, 2020
Then, right on cue, comes the “Final Lockdown” (with apologies to the band “Europe”). Gavin Newsom in California and Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan have tried to ensure that Republicans cannot get to the polls with new lockdown orders. This is unlikely to work either, especially with so many early votes.
The numbers within the numbers of an electorate, so far, that is older, whiter, less college-educated, and more male, combined with what appears to be a significant number of blacks and Hispanics voting for President Trump will likely reshape the existing numbers beyond all imagination. If this all transpires as I expect, the real battle is about to begin on November 4th.
We will see violence and a new “resistance” that is the last, writhing gasp of the Deep State, the global elites, and the liberal foot soldiers before a serious, coordinated Trump counterattack begins. Stories already are swirling that Trump plans to fire FBI director Christopher Wray and CIA Director, Gina Haspel, as soon as the election is over. This is not only desirable but also critical if Trump hopes to achieve anything in office.
But it won’t be enough to just begin to take on some of these embedded Deep Staters: he must actually indict some of the worst culprits. And that won’t be enough. Nothing less than a national butt-kicking of the lockdown governors will suffice to get the U.S. back on its feet, for clearly, these governors have no intention of easing up. The latest rounds of China Virus hysteria pieces attest to that.
The good news is that aside from rebuilding the economy, Trump can pretty much concentrate on doing little else but restoring the real American justice system after the election.
In 2017, I told my readers that they could have Hillary Clinton in jail, or they could have the Trump agenda. They couldn’t have both. We got almost all of the Trump agenda. Now is the time to right the scales and end the two-tiered justice system in America.
Larry Schweikart is the co-author, with Michael Allen, of the #1 New York Times #1 bestseller, A Patriot’s History of the United States, author of Reagan: the American President, and founder of the Wild World of History history curriculum website that features US and World History courses that include teacher’s guide, student workbooks, tests/answer keys, maps/images/graphs, and video lessons accompanying every unit (www.wildworldofhistory.com).
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Ping!!
I don’t see things as rosy as Larry.
I’ll leave it at that until tomorrow.
If you're implying POTUS do that, I'm not sure he can/should do anything about that except blister them in rallies and publicly...possibly withhold federal funds? The governors run their states (into the ground if that's their choice) and let them face the consequences through recall efforts or getting the boot the next election, or vote with their feet and move to a better state and hit the economy/taxes of the offending state.
The thorn among the flowers is the outright fraud being perpetrated in PA with the approval of the state supreme court, as noted a few posts up the page.
I’ve got my fingers crossed for the House. Steep hill to climb but we just might get there.
It’s throughout the midwest and some in the south.
Ballots are counted at the county level.
This is a perfect synopsis of where we’re at, on the eve of the most consequential election of our lifetime—unless some of you are old enough to have voted for Woodrow KKK Wilson, if so shame on you:)
The last time the incumbent party was denied at least a second term was Jimmy Carter, partly due to the crappy economy, but mostly due to the hostage crisis. As an aside, I don’t totally blame the Peanut for the latter. He did what he could given the limited post-Vietnam military resources we had. He gambled and lost. Not fair, but the buck stops at the oval office.
Is Covid the modern Iran hostage crisis? That’s sure the media narrative, and Biteme’s last stand. Are the majority of Americans optimistic and brave, or scared and need mommy government to put us to bed like Europe is starting to do? We’ll know tomorrow (and the next day, and the next few weeks, but realistically we’ll know the answer to this critical question tomorrow).
This has been a hugely helpful ping list. I pray God has mercy on this country and moves the voters in FL, NC and PA to save our country from the dark night of winter. I’m optimistic we’ll all be a little less stressed on Wednesday morning.
Are the majority of Americans optimistic and brave, or scared and need mommy government to put us to bed like Europe is starting to do?
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There seems to be a very distinct divide between DemonRats (aka Dementiacrats) & Republicans. The Ds are scared to death, all for wearing masks & keeping things closed. The Rs are more or less “let my people go” types. It has often been said that a ‘positive’ message is much more effective than a ‘negative’ one. Biden looks like death, sounds like death, gloom and doom. The pic of him/Kamala with their black masks on, arms raised after the nomination was just so dark, even evil was my visceral reaction to it. On the other hand, Trump is positive, moving forward ... I think most folks not infected with TDS (and yes, Trump Derangement is REAL) gravitate toward the light and will follow a natural leader who obviously loves this country & people. Just how I’m feeling today ....
By my definition, "complete" means all those votes are validated and tabulated for inclusion in a final count & I don't believe that is fully possible in all cases by even the early morning hours after the polls close. I don't intend this as a semantic exercise and I believe I fully understand/agree with your meaning. There are just some finer points to be considered in the process of having "complete" results.
I don’t see things as rosy as Larry.
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It’s not just Larry. Baris was quoted and Trafalger agrees with the Trump blowout scenario.
Democracy Inst as well
“The last time the incumbent party was denied at least a second term was Jimmy Carter...”
No, incumbent George Bush Sr. was denied a second term in 1992.
Although to be fair - that was entirely due to Ross Perot running a pro business third party campaign, and stealing 20m Republican votes from Poppy Bush - allowing that otherwise loser Bill Clinton to win with a mere 43% plurality!
Think of it; even Dukakis did better than 43%! He got 45.6% of the vote when he LOST to Bush four years earlier, in an epic 426/111 landslide!
Without spoiler Ross Perot in the race there is no doubt that Bush would have roundly defeated Clinton, and spared the nation the decades of Clinton embarrassment, scandal, abuse, corruption, treason - and even Arkancide - that followed.
Thanks Ross...
I think that the conditions are unique enough that there are multiple large unknowns, which can only be guesstimated at. This could be a steamroll either way, but we do have some limitations and probabilities for most of them.
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