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Florida Early Vote update, 11/02/2020
ElectionCZAR ^ | 11/02/2020 | self

Posted on 11/02/2020 5:50:51 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 663,685

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 555,562

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 108,123


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: florida
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To: SpeedyInTexas

“Everyone please chime in with a Florida prediction. I’ll go first.”

Trump 51
Biden 49


81 posted on 11/02/2020 7:19:29 AM PST by JamesP81 (The Democrat Party is a criminal organization.)
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To: All

10:08

last 3 updates

IPEV R +34 - Mail in D + 613 net D+579
R +66 - 528 = D + 462
R+ 60 - (-126) R +186

Dems +285 average per update


82 posted on 11/02/2020 7:19:31 AM PST by janetjanet998
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Arrive by ED? Or postmarked?


83 posted on 11/02/2020 7:20:44 AM PST by Owen
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To: SpeedyInTexas

No your number is the exact one using the decimal points. My number was incorrect (I used whole numbers).


84 posted on 11/02/2020 7:20:54 AM PST by Ravi
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To: SpeedyInTexas; All

Please calculate with these percentages and I’ll calculate again also.

I have to go dark the next few hours

be back later this afternoon


85 posted on 11/02/2020 7:21:05 AM PST by janetjanet998
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To: Owen

Arrive.


86 posted on 11/02/2020 7:21:23 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: Owen

arrive by 7 pm or no soup for you. FL is strict.


87 posted on 11/02/2020 7:21:36 AM PST by Ravi
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To: Owen

Florida not only has a day but a time deadline.


88 posted on 11/02/2020 7:22:00 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: janetjanet998

That rate adds 7K to their lead by end of today


89 posted on 11/02/2020 7:22:21 AM PST by Owen
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To: Ravi

Oh, ok.

60k it is.


90 posted on 11/02/2020 7:23:03 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: janetjanet998

60k when you arrive back in the Light.


91 posted on 11/02/2020 7:24:19 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

“Perhaps a factor in the relative tightening in PA v. other states: Pennsylvania voters supported fracking, 52-27, in the Times/Siena poll”


92 posted on 11/02/2020 7:26:42 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

byecomey: “Sometime today, I will be changing over the map to the Election Day view rather than early voting. The totals box will be reflecting Election Day comparisons rather than early voting.”


93 posted on 11/02/2020 7:27:32 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas
I'm confident that Trump will win. He won by 113,000 in 2016 after being behind in EV by about 96,000.

Key here to size of victory will be the number of crossovers from DEMS to Trump.

If Trump has significantly increased his share of Hispanics and Blacks as reported, he will pull much of that support out of the DEM column. I doubt very much that many of these new Trump supporters, who have historically been registered DEM, are bothering to change their registration. More likely, they vote Trump this time and see what happens in 2024.

These are not converts to the Republican party - they are simply supporting Trump. The Republicans will have to work harder to keep them long term.

94 posted on 11/02/2020 7:30:03 AM PST by SamAdams76 (Orange Man GOOD!)
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To: plushaye

Trafalgar polling has Potus ahead in PA, MI and NC today. Trafalgar was (I believe) the only pollster in 2016 who showed Trump winning in MI, and of course he did. They manage to account for some of the “shy Trump” vote in their polling. Nate Silver attacks Trafalgar all the time for their results.

Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar said on Fox that they are finding late deciders breaking for Trump because of the “fear of lockdowns”, like those announced in the UK and threatened by Biden.


95 posted on 11/02/2020 7:43:04 AM PST by plushaye (God wins! Anarchy begone in Jesus Name!)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Thanks, I hope those are worst case numbers.


96 posted on 11/02/2020 7:53:15 AM PST by nwrep
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To: SpeedyInTexas

It looks to me, the dems are underperforming significantly.

11.0 million votes

pred.hare of voters in 2020/ % share of voters in 2016
D: 36.4%/ 38.5%
R: 39.1%/ 39.2%

Trump wins by 170k


97 posted on 11/02/2020 7:55:57 AM PST by wfu_deacons
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To: All

NC has had "one-stop" for the past two weeks (register and vote on the same day).

REPs have won this battle. They lost this battle in 2012 and 2016.

From 10/19 to 11/2:

21,001 people registered as DEMs and voted.
29,131 people registered as REPs and voted.
15,730 people registered as NPAs and voted.
98 posted on 11/02/2020 7:57:45 AM PST by Ravi
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To: SpeedyInTexas

AZ: D lead down to 9k

https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

Rs up by 21k in Maricopa County.


99 posted on 11/02/2020 7:58:54 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Thanks so much for these updates. This Florida reporting has become one of my must watch threads!

Questions for you.

Over the last year in Florida, can you tell me what has happened with new voter registration, changes in voter registration?


100 posted on 11/02/2020 8:00:29 AM PST by Professional
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