Posted on 11/02/2020 5:50:51 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
I don’t believe it’s wishful thinking to believe that DT wins Election by 500,000 votes. Independents break like indy’s do, and the the crossover splits..we win by 340,000 votes, 50.4 Trump and 47.6.
There was a Trump street parade yesterday...in Nigeria.
https://www.facebook.com/LEXITMovement/videos/639487783409047/
I was thinking about the Nigerian-American communities who vote. I don’t even know which states they have concentrations in. However their votes are welcome.
I can’t possibly see how anyone who was undecided would break for Biden given the past few weeks of the campaign.
Off the back of my envelope:
11,300,00 total votes (guessing 80% of registrations)
9,000,000 early votes (guessing election day total)
2,300,000 to go on election day
7 to 5 Republican IPEV ratio advantage
assuming 7 to 5 election day advantage.
380,000 election day Republican advantage.
110,000 guessing final early voting Democrat advantage.
270,000 Republican win
I kind of expect better numbers due to Democrat crossovers and NPA favoring Trump
I like your analysis, but my guess is a little more optimistic: Trump by 2%.
I think Florida will be less afraid of the Chinavirus than much of the USA plus more pro-business. I think the election will be shaped by the virus on the one side and optimism plus love of America on the other. I think older Americans will be weaker for Trump than in the past while younger folks (30s, 40s) will be more likely to vote Trump. The “I don’t like Trump’s attitude” switch of GOP to Biden will be minimal compared to 2018.
It won't be so bad since the corrupt elections supervisor in Broward County has been replaced with an honest appointment. Ditto Palm Beach County.
Florida never a question. Trump Country all the way.
Trump wins by 300k votes.
I am certain.
Speedy has the % voted down to a decimal point.
3,685,751 R
3,658,311 D
Ok so 27,440 More Registered Rep voted
That was the number I was looking for the compare to Byecomeys live data
when all the mail ins are counted tomorrow also
I will assume the Dems will go into it up 130K
and hopefully end the day well above +30K
That layout of what is to come is numerically correct.
In 2016
3.71m Rs voted out of 4.577m registered Rs
3.65m Ds voted out of 4.908m registered Ds
Total IPEV+VBM for Rs was 2,533m
Total IPEV+VBM for Ds was 2,629m
With caveat that VBM turned in on election day included in “early vote”.
“How many more registered Republicans than Dems voted in the 2016 election after all the votes were counted”
60,000
Wow, Speedy, those are sobering numbers, with Trump losing ground in FL compared to 2016. If that happens (FL shifting to the left), MI/WI/PA are in jeopardy.
That honestly does not seem like a hard lift. Lots of red Marionites, Lakers, Pinellians, Pascovians, Escambians et al left to vote. This will be the most one-sided election day turnout ever in FL. It was the best VBM year for the DEMs; conversely, it will be the best election day for the REPs.
“3,685,751 R
3,658,311 D
Ok so 27,440 More Registered Rep voted”
I have 60,000?
Two items. How many days are mail in ballots allowed to arrive?
And more important, what is the mail in arrival rate over the past few days. If Trump has an ED lead, this rate will tell us if VBM could catch up.
From Daniel Smith:
“As for turnout among party registrants (limiting the following analysis to “active” voters), 74.4% of the state’s 4.908m Democrats turned out to vote. In contrast, 81.2% of the state’s 4.577m registered Republicans cast ballots. Only 63.3% of the state’s 3.132m No Party Affiliates (NPAs) voted, whereas 70.2% of the 347k Third Party registrants turned out.”
Please calculate with these percentages and I’ll calculate again also.
Sorry I gave her whole numbers. Funny what a little decimal does. Even with overall turnout tomorrow, decimal changes will make a huge difference.
I tried to be conservative.
I assume R turnout is equal to 2016 at 81.2%
I assume D turnout increases from 74.4% to 78.5%.
Indys go for Trump in similar proportions to 2016.
I think this is all conservate. No R turnout increase. The Indy Cuban vote doesn’t add to Indy percentages, etc.
I think my prediction is the floor and if wrong, Trump wins bigger.
“How many days are mail in ballots allowed to arrive?”
Election Day. Like 7 or 8pm.
“Sorry I gave her whole numbers. Funny what a little decimal does. Even with overall turnout tomorrow, decimal changes will make a huge difference.”
Oh, could be. So 27k with more decimal precision?
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