Florida Early Vote update, 11/02/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 11/02/2020 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 663,685

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 555,562

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 108,123

[reasonisfaith]

After spending significant time on this site, those previously influenced by the fake news-saturated establishment are often able to think more independently.

[willk]

“But unless Washoe County, which has been blue the last two cycles, goes to the president by a solid margin...”

I’ve had 2 big stresses the past few months. This election and deciding whether to retire in Reno (Washoe County) or St George, UT. If Washoe County and the rest of Nevada goes to Biden then it is 3 strikes. I’m not going to live in East California (Nevada).

[Cathi]

Red Eagle Politics
@RedEaglePatriot

According to Economist, tomorrow’s vote (in-person, election day voters) should come in for Trump at a 70-30 Trump margin or so at a minimum.

[plushaye]

I like the sound of that. ;)

[plushaye]

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart

Baris: Trump just took the lead in PA
erasing a 1.3 point Biteme lead in 2 days.

PA seems to be breaking our way.

[janetjanet998]

DEMS UP +112K LETS ROUND UP 113K
(mail in continue tomorrow with Miami-dade dump of 3K or so at 9am)

to get the +60K lead REPS had in 2016 REPS need 173K more net votes

13 hours of voting tomorrow with 39 updates on Byecomeys page

thats +4435 per update on average(no panhandle 1st hour but all panhandle last)

I would like that number even higher

I would like that to get +100K

if goal is 100K Rep net + then 213,000 more net votes needed

then reps need to net +5462 per update

[janetjanet998]

speedy

I say lets just combine tomorrows live byecomey page updates and then turn it into the FL election live results thread in the evening

Again I am “news blackouting myself” with no info but FL

FL should set the trend for the night and besides it’s hard to follow multiple states in detail at the same time

I might not even view this thread in the evening because I don’t want to see see any spoilers from other states

Final prediction TRUMP +1.3% when FL is called for Trump

but final 1.1% after the DEM “find” more votes in the days ahead

[cowboyusa]

Any mor ev number updates?

[wareagle7295]

Tomorrow is going to be the longest day ever. I have been waking up at basically 4AM every morning for the last few weeks, and instinctively reach for my phone to check the Free Republic. I might try to go back to bed, but I just toss and turn usually. I hope my heart can handle it.

[EaglesTTT]

I put together a tracking spreadsheet and graph so we can get a visual of how we are doing vs a “modeled” linear path to 100k. If you can keep up with the updated net numbers, I will put them in. I will be at work so may have times where I can’t get them every 20 minutes.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z2C8Zp_qGcVbYanxjHo1CoNy6RuM0PRRG5j47nRerk8/edit?usp=sharing

[Methos8]

My prediction. I do think Trump will carry the state but it will be pretty close. Hoping for about 2.4 million votes tomorrow and around a 1.5% Trump win (+175k).

In terms of turnout, Florida was at 74.6% in total. There were 2.96 million votes on Election Day. Trump has to expect to do well with Election Day voters given past history and Covid-19. For example in Pinellas (a purple county), he won 53-41 on Election Day despite only winning the county by about 1%.

If turnout is 2.2 million voters tomorrow that would put Florida around 78%. Anything north of that and I think Trump is probably safe, short of it all coming in Broward or other blue counties.

[DaxtonBrown]

St. George seems pretty nice.

[DaxtonBrown]

New @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #NVpoll conducted 10/31 - 11/2 shows razor thin Trump lead:
49.1% @realDonaldTrump,
48.4 @JoeBiden
1.2% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
0.8% Other,
0.5% Und. See Report: https://thetrafalgargroup.org/news/nv-pres-1102 https://pic.twitter.com/daLnGCdtwN

Within .7%, much tighter than Ralston who puts it Biden plus 4%

[SpeedyInTexas]

I think we need to account for Miami and Sarasota when we try to determine if Rs pass Ds in voting today. As far as I know, they will be missing from JoeIsDone website real time data.

Here is some info I looked up (2020):
Miami Registered Rs - 428,415
Miami Registered Ds - 634,092

Miami Early Votes Rs - 308,594
Miami Early Votes Ds - 408,032
(numbers will update at 8:30 this morning from yesterdays VBM)

Sarasota Registered Rs - 144,775
Sarasota Registered Ds - 106,151

Sarasota Early Votes Rs - 97,482
Sarasota Early Votes Ds - 78212
(numbers will update at 8:30 this morning from yesterdays VBM)

I don’t know how many Ds/Rs voted in Miami or Sarasota in 2016. I know the statewide number. 74.4% of registered Ds voted and 81.2% of registered Rs voted.

[SpeedyInTexas]

It would be sweet to win NV.

You are up early this morning.

Me too. Election interfering with my sleep.

[SpeedyInTexas]

I woke up at 4am also.

Can’t wait for the election to end.

[SpeedyInTexas]

I’ll start a new thread today when DOE releases Florida vote numbers at 8:30

[DaxtonBrown]

Wisconsin has me worried, makes a big bet difference. Ditto Minnesota.

[Rumierules]

https://twitter.com/jeffersonjaxson/status/1323459893291081728?s=21

This is a great analysis complete with a set of tables at the end for various turnout totals and party breakdown percentages.

I’ve already voted but will drive by my usual polling place in Duval this a.m. and provide a report. Duval could be a county where Ds outnumber Rs by 7 p.m. but Trump narrowly carries the county anyway.

We will soon see.

[janetjanet998]

byecomeys numbers at 6:30am for later reference

558482 +R EV
671216 mail

+112725 D

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