Florida Early Vote update, 11/01/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 11/01/2020 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 653,646

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 558,741

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 94,905

[janetjanet998]

still no recent updates

but i am bookmarking the 12:48 numbers here because i am going mobile

561,868 657,315 95,447

[SE Mom]

Great news! Wisconsin!

[Ravi]

Yep. Just hold serve.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“NH”. I have NH on my list: http://www.electionczar.com/

[plushaye]

You do too. Looks maybe promising. I would love NH red but wasn’t too hopeful based on seeing what other analysts said. It was so close last time and possibly taken fraudulently but GOP didn’t fight.

[Roadrunner383]

NH in 2016 went to Clinton by less than 2800 votes out of approx. 695K total.

[plushaye]

I see good news in many places today, and that’s not spin.
I just saw promising poll info on NH(!!).

Not there yet but I like the trending our way.

[plushaye]

I remember that. Maybe it could be actually be coming “home” this cycle?

[byecomey]

It’ll be another hour before updates resume, sorry.

[plushaye]

No problem. Thanks for all you’re doing.

Here’s the UMichvoter99 update from 4pm while we wait (without Miami-Dade):

UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
·
25m
Florida in-person EV Day 14 (4:00 PM UPDATE)

Rep 43,777 (+1,227)
Dem 42,550
NPA/Other 35,108
Total 121,435

Cumulative total

Rep 1,928,217 (+560,542)
Dem 1,367,675
NPA/Other 940,830
Total 4,236,722

https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

warning: NO MIAMI DADE

[SpeedyInTexas]

Umich has VBM at 659,676 lead for Ds.

I have 653,646 this morning.

That would be +6030.

If Rs up +1,227 in IPEV.

D would be up +4803 net on day.

Not bad for Souls to Polls.

I’m surprised actually they can’t do better than that.

[CarolinaReaganFan]

RE - NH in 2016 went to Clinton by less than 2800 votes out of approx. 695K total.

---

and there were about 5K who registered same day and never followed up with DMV reg of a vehicle. You’d think the R’s would have found a way by now to put a stop to that

[fortheDeclaration]

A poll should line up with objective data, the poll in Iowa does.

[Coop]

All about the denominators. Numerators more important for mid-terms. Denominators more important for General elections.

Except in 2003, when it was all about the Terminator.

[fortheDeclaration]

Trump will have enough States to be safely over the 270.

[byecomey]

I think this is a strong signal for what’s going to happen on Election Day.

[Coop]

When Indiana flirted with going for Bonzo

Flirted? She jumped into bed with him. Indiana voted for Obama in 2008, then regretted its one-night stand in 2012.

[Coop]

Shocker (to me): NH!! I haven’t seen anything giving hope in NH this cycle. NH House races may be affected positively, if this is true. MN is very good too.

Why?? Trump was in NH and Maine last weekend. NH-01 is primed to flip back to the GOP. Trump only last NH by 2K or so votes last time around. NH has always been in play this election. I will be shocked if Trump doesn't win NH. And if he wins it strongly enough, the GOP could steal yet another Senate seat.

[plushaye]

I guess I was listening to the wrong political opinions over NH. I did see a video where an analyst displayed an NH map and showed if Potus could improve a bit in certain areas, he could win.The rest of the analysts show it blue, not even leaning red.

I know the campaign is good at figuring out promising states and not wasting much time in others like CO. It would be wonderful to see NH go red because it would come early and portend perhaps an incredible night for us.

[Coop]

Don’t be completely surprised if Trump wins Colorado as well, saving Sen. Cory Gardner’s seat in the process.