[LS]

I am NOT “calling” VA for Trump but here are the numbers:

*If 15% of blacks vote for Trump, and another 5% stay home, you’re looking a a shortfall of about 50-,000-60,000 voters.

*If, as I suggested earlier, the 18-24 student shortfall is 30% off 2018 levels, that’s another 40,000. That puts you at about 90,000-100,000 of the 125,000 voters Trump has to flip.

[Coop]

I guarantee Trump might win Virginia. :-)

[cgbg]

VA is challenging but doable—but Trump supporter turnout has to be significantly above 2016 levels.

My assessment is that Trump is gaining about 5% above 2016 in all regions and ethnic groups.

That would make Virginia way too close to call.