VA is challenging but doable—but Trump supporter turnout has to be significantly above 2016 levels.
My assessment is that Trump is gaining about 5% above 2016 in all regions and ethnic groups.
That would make Virginia way too close to call.
I also think Trump outperforms his 2016 performance nationwide, with some of that improvement due to Johnson and McMullin not on the ballot pulling away significant votes like four years ago.