Posted on 10/27/2020 5:55:37 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Momentum. Lol. I don’t believe the race dynamics have changed at all.
This is so correct. They believe their own BS. Then lose their effing minds because they live in a bubble. You would have to be a flat out fool to believe double digit poll leads, an outright fool or liar.
Nod.
Here is the article on Wisconsin cities pop:
https://www.wpr.org/wisconsins-population-growing-while-milwaukees-continues-decline
bar chart -0.49%
What poll?
Modest improvement in Duval. Long way to go.
“The Florida counties with the highest % of Democrat turnout are ALL Trump counties: Sumter, Collier, Lee, etc.”
_________________________________________________________
So I went to TargetSmart and did a little deep-dive on Sumter (the villages), Collier, and Lee Counties. I drilled down and compared REGISTERED white, working-class voters vs. how TargetSmart modeled them (Dem/Rep). In Collier and Lee, TargetSmart shows a 14 to 15 point difference between the WWC’s party of registration and their modeled party. In Sumter, the spread is closer to 25 points-—and in all 3 counties the spread favors Republicans. It is very significant that in the 3 top counties for Democrat turnout % in that county, a substantial chunk of these “registered” Democrats are really Republicans/Trump voters.
TargetSmart’s model of the whole state of FL shows Democrats with a 3 point lead with a substantial number of “unknowns” as voters they haven’t been able to model. This EV deck is stacked with older, white legacy Democrats who will vote R.
Kind of an interesting side note, at least for me right outside of Tampa on the I-4 corridor, the volume of election mail I have received is way down this year compared to four years ago.
Good find.
BOOM
Trump just took the FL average poll lead at real clear politics
RCP Average 10/20 - 10/25 — — 48.2 47.8 Trump +0.4
New Susquehanna poll +4 did it
“This was the big HATE TRUMP vote.”
Yep and that hate may not be enough to carry them over the finish line.
Well bless them. I say we average their bs polls for three months to judge them.
Sumter has now moved to “Advantage Trump”.
Can’t remember if anyone posted that yet or not.
81 and 74. Those numbers sound familiar.
“If 2016 patterns hold then that Republican 47 is going to turn into an 81 (+34).
The Democrat 51 is going to turn into a 74 (+23).
Democrats needs to do a lot better turnout wise and they better hope GOP doesn’t turn out.”
LS-——Collier County, SW Florida and “ground zero” for Trump’s base in Florida, is blowing it out the door in turnout. 127K have already voted, which is 75% of 2016 turnout (170K). Youthful Democrat Twitter dingbats were giddy about the high Democrat turnout in Collier. However, the Democrats who are turning out in droves are older, white working-class legacy Democrats. Trump beat Hillary 61%/36% in 2016. Trump has an outside chance of hitting 75% in Collier Co., with a record turnout. Lee County, which borders Collier and has similar demographics, is blowing it out of the water, also.
LS-——Collier County, SW Florida and “ground zero” for Trump’s base in Florida, is blowing it out the door in turnout. 127K have already voted, which is 75% of 2016 turnout (170K).
I was just about to point that out
But could be it be bad news? there will be less voters for the REP surge on ED there
Or good news? The overall turnout will be higher then 2016 there
Just hit 350K IPEV for REPS !!
I love that it has quickly evolved from concern to panic in the lib corners of Twitter following the numbers.
I will grudgingly admit they will do better than 74%. Whatever number they hit - 76 to 78% - I bet we still beat them by a few % points.
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