“The Florida counties with the highest % of Democrat turnout are ALL Trump counties: Sumter, Collier, Lee, etc.”
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So I went to TargetSmart and did a little deep-dive on Sumter (the villages), Collier, and Lee Counties. I drilled down and compared REGISTERED white, working-class voters vs. how TargetSmart modeled them (Dem/Rep). In Collier and Lee, TargetSmart shows a 14 to 15 point difference between the WWC’s party of registration and their modeled party. In Sumter, the spread is closer to 25 points-—and in all 3 counties the spread favors Republicans. It is very significant that in the 3 top counties for Democrat turnout % in that county, a substantial chunk of these “registered” Democrats are really Republicans/Trump voters.
TargetSmart’s model of the whole state of FL shows Democrats with a 3 point lead with a substantial number of “unknowns” as voters they haven’t been able to model. This EV deck is stacked with older, white legacy Democrats who will vote R.
Good find.