Posted on 10/25/2020 6:45:39 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 594,110
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 230,261
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 363,849
I think Wasserman believes the polls that Trump has lost support among seniors and Sumter (average age 69 years old!) will show that.
I think Wasserman will be wrong, but even if Trump loses some support among seniors, he can make that up with Cubans in Miami. 200k votes were left on the table there in 2016.
Hi LS can your constitutional scholar friend comment on the legality of Dem governors trying to shut down Election Day polling sites?
Now that Souls to Polls is past us, the only card I can think of is that the COVID-19 scare is setting the stage for Dem governors to shut down polls.
More broadly, mathematically, if TargetSmart supervoter data is accurate, we *will* see a collapse in VBM returns/IPEV by the Dems this week.
Back at you!
I cannot tell you the legal response.
But I sure can tell you the citizen response.
It involves rifles.
Aw, thanks. [blushing]
Just don't try to hit me.
Agreed. I'm trying not to get too excited about Miami-Dade, but those numbers so far must be terrifying for Democrats.
I’m actually more worried about BLM/Antifa pulling riots and other electoral interference around key polling sites in GOP areas nationwide. Plus hurricanes/tropical storms around the Gulf Coast. But early voting, and the 2nd Amendment, can mitigate those worries to a great extent.
“Miami-Dade, but those numbers so far must be terrifying for Democrats.”
Oh yea. I said a few days ago that byecomey’s map IPEV view looked very similar to the final 2016 map.
It no longer does because the map is too Red!
That's a real shame...
I’ve been thinking of switching over to the all vote view by default but it’d cause some panic.
Still working on NC and planning to have it out tonight. It is technically much more complex than you’d think.
I was looking at your NC map earlier today. Very nice!
Interesting because it’s not live yet lol.
Here’s the technical problem with it. You have age, race, ethnicity, etc which exponentially adds to the programming difficulty especially when you’re trying to make it run fast for people who are viewing it on a low end phone (which are the majority of web traffic these days).
I have thus far created a bitpacked version that encodes all these demographics as 32-bit integers and runs fast. You will be able to query any cross tabs you’d like. It’s gonna be awesome (if I say so myself).
I could leave these off and just stick to county/method/party like FL. But I am not satisfied with that. NC does not have continuous updates like FL (FL only state to do so). That’s what McDonald of ElectProject does, rolls out a map once daily. I want to smoke him in the dust.
Well, I don’t want to post a link if you’re not ready, but I’m looking at it now. :-)
Well I for one cannot wait until that happens and I never have to visit electproject again.
The biggest difficulty I’m having is trying to frame the denominators in a way that’s initiative. I’m thinking I’ll just start with the same ones as FL to begin with and treat gender/age/race/ethnicity/etc as a filter. UX/UI is one of my biggest weaknesses technically.
It’s all Greek to me but what you’ve done is very impressive to this peon. You, SpeedyInTexas and Southpaw1.
You lost me at bitpacked integers.
I’m a historian.
I'm a developer. I'll help translate.
Okay, so, all I’m seeing in this tech description is that he’s encoding the three specified criteria. Not sure why a low-end phone would slow things down, because whatever speed you SERVE to the phone would matter more. I think the value you can get from encoding (presumeably flat files?) would be better served by putting the data in a database server.
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