Posted on 10/25/2020 6:45:39 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 594,110
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 230,261
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 363,849
On the map it shows Pubbies have a big overall lead in Sumter. 57-26%. Is one of us looking at the wrong thing?
Thank you
Great interview! I just finished watching it. Made more sense than anything I’ve seen or read about the polls in a long time.
He mentioned that only 2% respond to polls. That really caught my attention. I had not heard that number before but I can fully understand. I am one of the 98% that never respond to polls.
I’ll still have a few sleepless nights but I do feel a lot better. Thanks again for sharing. I plan to share it with a few others.
Understood, thanks
I’m salivating just gazing at your post!
This is such a great thread- you guys are smart and funny and informative- thank you!
Anecdotal- 2 friends, 1 black, 1 transplanted NuYawk/PR just voted “R” for the first time ever. Straight R ticket. AND they have friends/family doing same. It’s really a shock to me.
-Orlando
“Sumter Reps have caught the Dems (VBM plus IPEV)”
Great.
I want Trump to win for the country but I also want to stick it to Wasserman and Silver.
When Sumter goes ruby red for Trump, Wasserman will have to eat his words on his “pro tip”.
If Trump wins, a big story on Election night will be how minority votes helped re-elect Trump.
In FL, GA, NC, PA, MI.
Wasserman:
“Pro tip: if Trump doesn’t win Sumter Co. (The Villages) at least two-to-one, he’s not winning FL - or a second term. In 2016, it went 68%-29% Trump.
84% of Sumter’s ‘16 vote was cast early/by mail (vs. 69% statewide), so we should have a good sense pretty early.”
I agree. And I’m amazed.
My friend told me she finally got off the plantation- she feels like she always knew, but couldn’t believe it. Even though the plantation thing is a cliche, there’s truth to it.
That’s a good data point. Happily byecomey’s map is showing the GOP leading more than 2:1 in early ballots cast: 57-26% (combined early votes).
I don’t get it. The count is well past 2:1 as of now.
The Villages Trump Golf Cart Parade 10/24/2020
Perfect timing.
Yesterday was the final day to request VBM ballots in Florida. Todays Division of Elections stats probably has “close” to final numbers.
50.3% of Ds requested a VBM ballot
36.0% of Rs requested a VBM ballot
1/2 of D voters voting by mail will be a heavy weight on their overall turnout.
Rs got alot of voters left.
The number which we shall not speak of only went up by 2k because new VBM requests were more balanced between the parties. So I’ll leave that number at the number of the devil.
How did the Villages hold up during Covid? It is a lot of rich old white people living the dream, and I don’t think too many of them who voted for Trump are going to switch to Biden.
Reading numbers right now, I’m pretty happy how Sumter is shaping up.
From some twitter person:
“Sumter looks to be well on track to meet that 75,000 vote threshold you referred to as an early indicator of the outcome if it isn’t more than 2:1 for Trump.”
from Wasserman:
“1. Yes it does, w/ 61k votes cast already.
2. I think Trump needs at least 67% in Sumter (maybe 68-69%) to have a shot to win FL.
3. If the first batch of early votes reported is >75k and Trump is only taking ~61%, he’d have a hard time getting to 67% w/ election day votes, imo.”
“Right now, the party breakdown of the 60,984 Sumter voters who have cast ballots:
GOP: 57%
Dem: 26%
NPA/other: 17%
And, the party breakdown of the 44,628 Sumter RVs who *haven’t* yet cast ballots:
GOP: 56%
Dem: 20%
NPA/other: 24%”
They’ll move the goalposts to Duval or something.
You’re very welcome. Barnes is a pro at electoral analysis.
And speaking of polls,
Insider Advantage Chairman, Matt Towery on Hannity Friday:
“The polling this year is very, very difficult. I don’t have a lot of confidence in any of the polls. We are now having to rely more and more on cell phone respondents and they are very unreliable so polling may be finished after this cycle.
This looks just like when I talked to the Fox affiliates last year..or 2016. I was telling them on the air the night before that I didn’t think Hillary was going to win. I thought Trump would win even though the polling said otherwise . I see the exact same trend this time. I see things shifting very, very quickly.”
I want you to know something.
I want you to know I love you all.
That’s more spin than a ballerina.
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