Posted on 10/24/2020 6:47:37 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 582,821
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 192,706
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 390,115
10/24/20: REPs - 1,899,530, DEMs - 2,289,645, lead of 390,115 for DEMs, 43.3% to 36.0%
10/23/20: REPs - 1,682,849, DEMs - 2,110,366, lead of 427,517 for DEMs, 44.2% to 35.2%
10/22/20: REPs - 1,463,281, DEMs - 1,926,055, lead of 462,774 for DEMs, 45.2% to 34.4%
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
The combined gap is now 7.3 points down from 15.9.
The home team is running up and down the field now after wearing down the opposition.
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3897078/posts?page=11#11
Doubt it holds, but looks like Rs have returned more VBMs than Ds today...I was wondering when that would happen.
Starting today, acc to your fine map, the GOP has a 194K ballots cast advantage in IPEV. Based on the past two days, plus more GOP friendly areas coming online, I anticipate we’ll end today with a 250K+ IPEV advantage in the Sunshine State.
Bobby Boucher anyone
Okay, I’ll bite. Why the Water Boy reference?
Ping for later.
D VBM returned ballot rate is 63.1%
R VBM returned ballot rate is 59.2%
Delta is 3.9. Smallest gap is a while.
D rate has slowed. 60.7 yesterday, 63.1 today. Gain of 2.4. Better than those 3+ days.
2.4 * 7 + 63.1 = 79.9% turnout. Lower than 80.5% I think they need but still too dang high.
Hate is motivating them. Love is motiving us.
Didn’t Hillary say Love > Hate.
Looks like the reduction of dim lead in total votes is increasing day by day. Hoping for a 80k reduction today.
Any idea what party ID is by ethnicity?
I watch the VBM return rate every day as a key metric.
A returned ballot is a ballot cast. That is turnout.
Hillary lost Florida because of turnout.
Couple of times I thought the VBM Mania had crested, but it resumed the climb.
Today is last day to request a VBM ballot.
That denominator is frozen tomorrow morning.
I had to google Bobby Boucher...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=0
Check out M-D county on the combined IPEV&VBM tab. R share is now a little over 2016 level. This is awesome and makes up for Orange County being so blue.
Vote demographics seem so hard to get in FL this election compared to the last 2 I followed.
People have access to this info but not tweeting it out.
Our favorite map and spreadsheet:
bycomey’s Florida Map: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
southpaw1’s Florida Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=0
Some of the D vote are Trumpies who became D (easily done in FL) in order to vote for Comrade Bernie in the March 17 D primary.
These ersatz Ds are IPEV for PotUS.
I love that spreadsheet, but why do you have only about 20 out of the 67 counties in Florida? What are your selection criteria?
It would have been too cumbersome for me to track all the counties. So I attempted to find a good mix - some large, some small, a few red, a few blue and a few purple. And geographically represented as well.
M-D is going to be a standout this year.
Not for a Trump win there but for how much raw vote Trump picks up there over 2016.
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