Posted on 10/24/2020 6:47:37 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 582,821
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 192,706
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 390,115
As you suspected, slower day for R gains. It’s 5 pm at net EV gain for R is around 34K (it was 50K last 3 days), but the good news is that net VBM gain for the Ds is around 11K, which is lower that what they’ve been pulling last few days.
Still 2 hrs to go.
I might have been greedy wanting 80k today. Oh well.
I have family in central and north Florida and it’s been good weather. I think folks are just out enjoying time with family. Expect to see big bump next week.
Good for them not that it matters much
Yep. The dims don’t have fun on the weekend. They sit out the house and wonder how they can be more miserable for no good reason.
They do seem to find new ways to be more miserable.
I think the FL gain for the day is 24K, not 34K, so far. Opened with a 390K overall Dem lead. Presently 366K.
Red Eagle Politics
@RedEaglePatriot
Florida is at 57 cents on Predictit now for Trump.
My bad - typo; you are correct. It was 24K as of 15 mins ago.
Here’s a 30-second “Latinos for Trump” ad from Florida that will make everyone smile. It’s catchy and positive. I really like it although I don’t speak spanish and I found myself humming the tune while doing chores this morning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-ZwOfaTMBc
What a big difference in Hispanic support between 2016 and now, and not just in Florida. Many of them are registered Dems still, so it won’t be clear until ED how much support there actually is.
Reps still ahead in md ipev.
Early voting starts at later dates for more rural counties.
I put up a Remaining Supervoter estimate up on JoeIsDone. TargetSmart derived, but that ought to be something of a morale boost.
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
They seem to enjoy locking themselves down. Unresolved guilt perhaps.
Yes it is. The next 10 days will be fun.
The betting markets are diverging from the polls.
Which will be correct?
PredictIt is only 2 states away from Trump winning.
AZ is at 53 cents for Biden. If that flips to Trump then you have a traditional Republican map.
Trump would need to take PA/MI/WI/MN for the win.
PA at 65, MI at 67, WI at 66, MN at 74 for Biden
Sounds exactly were we where on election eve 2016.
Betting markets are meaningless.
There has been talk of 269/269 and win in the House. That won’t fly. The vote will never be scheduled. The term will expire and that vote won’t occur.
270 is not enough, either. Inevitable faithless Electors will be found.
There has to be an outright win, of substantial magnitude for reasons having nothing to do with fraud.
Not happy with a 300K+ Dem lead. Way too many counties with Advantage Biden 5 figures.
“Not happy with a 300K+ Dem lead. Way too many counties with Advantage Biden 5 figures.”
I think if Dem lead is less than 300k by Election Day, Rs win on Election Day.
My calculation (take with a grain of salt, maybe 2 grains) is for Rs to reduce D VBM lead by 55% by Election Day. They can then win on ED.
As of today D VBM lead is 592k.
Rs lead IPEV by 227k.
Lead is already reduced by 38.3%.
Well on the way to 55%.
This is astounding, but right in line with what I’ve expected.
Ds are basically voted out of all their 4/4 voters.
Yeah, I hate that term too!
Go to the link above and the article states that Saturday (today) was the day. But according to LS, some counties have it tomorrow as well.
Anyway, if Republicans can still see a significant increase even on "Souls To The Polls" weekend, then that bodes well.
Also, do not discount the fact that Black support for Trump is increasing. I doubt that many of these people will be changing their voter registration so we likely have a sizable number of Dems voting for Trump.
Still do not know what the Indepenent split will be for Trump. For purposes of analysis, most people will split 50/50 on Independents so that their analysis can focus on just Dems and Republicans. But I'm thinking a 55-45 Independent split for Trump is very possible. That split alone would add several HUNDRED thousand votes statewide to the Trump column.
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