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NC Democrats have a lead over Republicans in voter registration. But it’s shrinking
https://www.newsobserver.com ^ | BY JIM MORRILL OCTOBER 24, 2020 06:00 AM

Posted on 10/24/2020 5:43:36 AM PDT by 11th_VA

To Republican consultant Dee Stewart, the best barometer of this year’s election outcomes is in the numbers — not in polls but in voter registrations.

“Everyone knows the statewide elections in North Carolina will be decided by a razor thin margin,” Stewart said. “I believe the secret weapon of increased voter registration will provide the margin of victory for Republicans.

Through last week, North Carolina has seen a net gain of nearly 150,000 GOP registrations this year compared with 96,000 Democratic registrations, according to the State Board of Elections. The net gain in Unaffiliated voters was even higher — more than 193,000.

Even in a state with 7.3 million registered voters, Republicans see registration gains in North Carolina and other states as a silver lining in a year when many polls show President Donald Trump trailing Democrat Joe Biden.

But a deeper look at the numbers may suggest a more complicated picture of the state’s electorate.

“To me the big takeaway from all of this is Unaffiliated is the big winner,” said Chris Cooper, a political scientist at Western Carolina University. “You can get into a geek fight about the definition of a new registrant versus a changing electorate. But the real winner is Unaffiliated.”

Republican registrations this year outpaced Democratic registrations in almost all N.C. counties, according to the Civitas Institute’s registration tracker. The exceptions have been in the state’s urban counties, which have seen more Democratic registrations. Because of their size, they’ve also seen more total registrations.

Andy Jackson, Civitas’ elections policy analyst, said the figures are taken from the State Board of Elections and represent net changes. They include both newly registered voters and those who’ve left the state or otherwise fallen off voter rolls.

Overall, North Carolina’s electorate is divided almost in thirds.

Democrats comprise 35.6% of registered voters; Unaffiliateds, 33.4%; and Republicans 30.2%. (In 2016 Democrats made up 39% of the state’s registered voters and Unaffiliateds made up just 29.8%. The GOP share of the electorate was the same then as now.)

‘JESSECRATS’ ALIGNING REGISTRATION WITH VOTES

One way to look at the numbers is by looking at party switches.

This year about 25,500 N.C. Democrats have switched their registration to Republican, according to election board figures. At the same time, nearly 35,000 have switched to Unaffiliated.

“They’re registering the way they’ve voted,” Jackson said. “The old Jessecrats are now Republicans.”

“Jessecrats” are North Carolinians who were Democrats by registration but reliably crossed over to vote for the late Sen. Jesse Helms and other Republicans. As late as the early 1980s, more than 70% of the state’s voters were registered as Democrats, Cooper and Catawba College political scientist Michael Bitzer found.

At the same time Democrats were switching registration this year, so were Republicans. At least 9,700 flipped to Democrat and 28,200 re-registered as Unaffiliated.

Of the 2.7 million North Carolinians who already voted through Thursday, Democrats were outpacing their registration numbers. Republicans and Unaffiliated voters were slightly under-performing.

UNAFFILIATEDS MAY HOLD KEY

So who are the Unaffiliated voters?

Voters under 55, who are registering independent at a much higher rate than older voters, according to Old North State Politics, a blog by Cooper and Bitzer. And those under 40 are registering that way at an even faster clip.

Rachel Weber has seen that as the spokeswoman for NextGen North Carolina, a group funded by former Democratic presidential candidate Tom Steyer to register young voters. She said 148,000 voters under 35 registered in North Carolina from September 1 through this month’s Oct. 9 deadline. (People also can register at early-voting sites.)


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: North Carolina
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 10/24/2020 5:43:36 AM PDT by 11th_VA
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To: 11th_VA

LOL. I just posted on the early voting in NC about 30 seconds before you fired the second barrel. NC looks good for Trump.


2 posted on 10/24/2020 5:45:44 AM PDT by bort
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To: 11th_VA

Isn’t early voting a way to allow the democrats to get the info they need to target places they need to cheat? Or shut down?


3 posted on 10/24/2020 5:46:50 AM PDT by stanne
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To: 11th_VA

Remember...voter shenanigans put the current North Carolina governor in office...don’t get played AGAIN, North Carolina.


4 posted on 10/24/2020 5:48:11 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (Yehovah saved more animals than people on the ark...siameserescue.org)
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To: 11th_VA

They know Rasmussen type polling is not accurate. This is their polling. They’re not going to allow Mc to go to trump.


5 posted on 10/24/2020 5:48:57 AM PDT by stanne
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To: bort

Registrations means as much as the polls. Nuthin’. My mom used to register one way and then always vote the opposite. Rest here soul.


6 posted on 10/24/2020 5:51:00 AM PDT by rktman ( #My2ndAmend! ----- Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
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To: 11th_VA

Just to clear it up about the “Jessecrats”...if you wanted a voice in the local and state races, you had to vote in the Democratic primary.


7 posted on 10/24/2020 5:54:36 AM PDT by Overtaxed (Ephesians 6:12)
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To: 11th_VA
I read this article and see the state has 7.3 registered voters and then I look up population data and it states that 6,085,266 North Carolinians are 18 years of age and older...Hmmmmmmm
8 posted on 10/24/2020 5:55:10 AM PDT by KSCITYBOY (The media is corrupt)
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To: 11th_VA

Unaffiliated. Good way for a man to avoid being canceled and keep a job nowadays.


9 posted on 10/24/2020 6:04:50 AM PDT by familyop ("Who built the cages, Joe?" --President Trump)
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To: stanne
"They know Rasmussen type polling is not accurate."

That's what I've overhead from local women in corporate management. They like what they see from the various big survey companies and news networks much more.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Rasmussen Reports
Sponsored by Liberty Nation, Conservative News Where Truth Matters
Friday, October 23, 2020
href="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_oct23
"...51% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance."

10 posted on 10/24/2020 6:12:49 AM PDT by familyop ("Who built the cages, Joe?" --President Trump)
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To: familyop

Hi there. Hello from Charlotte. No reason why I responded....just ummm... dropping by to say hi. :^)

I work for big banks. I need for them to keep hiring me for projects. It’s a lot less risk to just keep a low profile......and vote straight ticket Republican.


11 posted on 10/24/2020 6:13:47 AM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: bort
LOL. I just posted on the early voting in NC about 30 seconds before you fired the second barrel. NC looks good for Trump.


12 posted on 10/24/2020 6:20:34 AM PDT by 11th_VA (I believe Hunter BidenÂ’s emails ...)
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To: FLT-bird

Thank you. Agreed! Contracting or temp employment can be a good way to go for someone who plans ahead.


13 posted on 10/24/2020 6:24:43 AM PDT by familyop ("Who built the cages, Joe?" --President Trump)
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To: 11th_VA

Does that matter? States like NC have had registered dems who only vote and often run as dems for local offices.


14 posted on 10/24/2020 7:27:44 AM PDT by Katya (lacking in the feelings department)
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To: 11th_VA
I voted for Hitlery twice as a Bolshekrat in Tennessee. (They made me say I was a Democrat.)

What amazes me, is that, I have not received any mail from Democrats asking for money.

15 posted on 10/24/2020 8:54:11 AM PDT by depressed in 06 (60 in '20. Now, more than ever! (61, I didn't take into account Mittens.))
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To: 11th_VA

Bet election day will be another shock treatment for the democrats history made again country saved.


16 posted on 10/24/2020 9:53:58 AM PDT by Vaduz (women and children to be impacIQ of chimpsted the most.)
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To: Vaduz
history made again country saved.

I hope so !!!

17 posted on 10/24/2020 12:02:19 PM PDT by 11th_VA (I believe Hunter BidenÂ’s emails ...)
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