48-46 is quite a familiar looking number.
But let’s do better than that this time around.
I think you have to add 7 pts to Trump in any poll to adjust for the Dem vs Rep sampling and the shy Trump voter and Trump supporting blue collar Dems (called Reagan Dems in the old days).
Other than the never-Trump voter, how could anyone support a 77 year old feeble, mentally declining, guy who doesn’t campaign who is dodging a classic corruption scandal? My eyes tell me something else than these polls do.
I think we are looking at a dead heat in the popular vote, and an electoral college solid victory with Trump adding three states or so to his 2016 electoral college numbers.
Great discussion of early voting and why this means an easy electoral college victory for the President:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wf6yr_McIFs&feature=youtu.be