Posted on 10/18/2020 6:09:44 AM PDT by bort
Here are the takeaways from this morning's early voting report from the NC State Board of Elections:
1) Republicans cut about 1.5 points from the Democrats lead in VBM/early in-person voting.
2) Votes cast: 665K/355K/408K (D/R/U registered voters)
3) Democrats have cast 310,000 more votes than Rs, but..
4) In 2016, Democrats cast--get this--exactly 310,000 more votes than Republicans in the entire early voting period, i.e., the exact same spread as today. In 2016, at the close of EV, Dems led Rs 1.3 million to 1 million VBM/EV cast.
5) Republicans have won 3 straight days of early voting so far, and are the odds-on favorite to win most (if not all) of the remaining in-person EV days, as Dem-heavy mail-in ballots are slowing down to a trickle.
6) Caveat: Black voters have turned out in the first 3 days of in-person EV in large numbers (especially Day One). The good news is that Rs still out-performed Ds on all three days, which means that white Democrats cannibalized their in-person votes by voting via mail. Black voters may be "front-loaded" in in-person EV through voter drives, but we will need 3 or 4 more days of data to confirm this.
7) Conclusion: Calm down about NC. We are in good shape. This state ALWAYS looks bad for Rs at the beginning. (continued)
Don’t see day by day returns but found this:
“According to the latest numbers released by the Secretary of State’s office, 71,056 voters have cast ballots as of around 8:30 a.m. on Tuesday morning. Of these, 46,169 have cast their ballots at early, in-person locations while 24,887 have returned their absentee ballots.”
That would have been Tuesday (Oct 13).
So in the past 5 days:
VBM has gone from 24,887 to 102,004.
IPEV has gone from 46,169 to 82,503.
184k have now voted.
I am still optimistic Trump wins the general election and flips several states, while holding on to all 2016 victory states.
Trump ain't in Carson City today for the seafood!
FYI-——TargetSmart breaks down the “first time” voters in North Carolina. They model the “first time” voters as 44%/42% Democrat/Republican, which is quite a surprise. Probably a combination of Trump’s ground-game and the student drop-off. Shockingly, Republicans may win more first-time voters.
You are correct. 3.8 points.
That’s more “R” than the general EV at large. Which means that by the time ED comes, we likely will see this pool tilting heavily R.
Very surprising indeed
My wife and I went for a leaf-peeping drive in the country along winding and sometimes hair-raising roads in the area of NC west of the Blue Ridge Parkway today. SOLID Trump country...Trump flags, Trump banners, Trump yard signs. (Lots of Dan Forest for Governor material, as well.) NOT ONE Biden sign anywhere, and I mean not one. Didn’t see a Biden sign until we entered larger towns like Burnsville and such. (Asheville, of course; was a Biden sewer.) Shame these mountain areas are sparsely populated, because they are 100% for the President.
Any word out of OH early voting? I know a week ago there were some concerns, but TargetSmart is now claiming that the gap is completely closed and then some.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/?view_type=State&demo=Modeled%20Party&demo_val=All&state=OH
https://mobile.twitter.com/LarrySchweikart/status/1318000644997853184
One of my VERY best threads on how horribly the DemoKKKrats strategized this.
McSally down only 1 in AZ now.
No. I’ll ask my BOE guy in Montgomery Co tomorrow. MC is a key county in OH. It went Clinton 2x, Gore, Kerry, Obama 2x, Trump.
An R carries OH if he is even close in MC. If he is tied, it’s a big margin. If he wins, like Trump, it’s 9 points.
Last Wed or so I was told that Ds had a 70,000 lead (out of about 140,000 Ds in the county, so they are really voted out already) but that Rs had evened up the dailies.
Here are some top-level numbers from 10/14 (after one week).
Absentee requests have doubled since 2016, and early voting has tripled.
Outside of the “modeling” which does look favorable this morning, fewer new or infrequent voters compared to 2016. Fewer 18 to 29 compared to 2016. That seems to be the hard data which is favorable
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