Posted on 10/13/2020 10:33:30 AM PDT by Kaslin
"The Indians are seeing 60,000 Chinese soldiers on their northern border," Secretary of State Michael Pompeo ominously warned on Friday.
He spelled out what he meant to commentator Larry O'Connor:
"The Chinese have now begun to amass huge forces against India in the north. ... They absolutely need the United States to be their ally and partner in this fight."
Pompeo had just returned from a Tokyo gathering of foreign ministers from the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or "Quad," the group of four democracies -- U.S., Japan, Australia, India -- whose purpose is to discuss major Indo-Pacific geostrategic issues.
Exactly what kind of "ally and partner" the U.S. is to be "in the fight" between India and China over disputed terrain in the Himalayan Mountains was left unexplained. We have no vital interest in where the Line of Control between the most populous nations on earth should lie that would justify U.S. military involvement with a world power like China.
And the idea that Japan, whose territorial quarrel with China is over the tiny Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, thousands of miles away, would take sides in a Himalayan India-China conflict also seems ludicrous.
Yet, tensions are rising between the U.S. and China, as the list of ideological, political and economic clashes continues to lengthen.
And there is a transparent new reality: China seems in no mood to back down.
When, after a year of demonstrations for greater democracy, the Hong Kong government failed to quell the uprising, Beijing stepped in and took control. The U.S.-led democracies that had been cheering on the Hong Kong marchers and protesters did nothing, and they have done nothing since to reverse Xi Jinping's political coup but prattle on about "values."
Lately, the democracies have been protesting, and rightly so, the inhumane treatment of the Uighur peoples in Xinjiang in China's west.
Han Chinese have been moved into the region to swamp the local population of Turkic and Muslim Uighurs and Kazakhs and bring about the demographic change Beijing desires. "Reeducation camps" have been established to cleanse Uighurs of their ethnic and religious identities and convert them into loyal and reliable Chinese Communists.
In a speech in late September, Xi declared that Beijing's policy of eradicating the ethnic and religious identity of the minorities of Xinjiang through state-driven education has proven "totally correct."
He vowed to imprint a Chinese identity "deep in the soul" of the peoples living there. "Our national minority work has been a success," said Xi, "It must be held to for the long term."
Xi makes no apology for -- indeed, he is proud of -- using state power to impose the state ideology upon the peoples he rules, and he openly repudiates our democratic values as inapplicable in his country.
Our rejection of China's claims to virtually all of the reefs and atolls in the South China Sea is also being ignored. Beijing's warnings grow louder and more pointed as the U.S. continues to send warships, the latest being the USS John McCain, close to islets claimed by China.
What is our strategy here? Are we prepared for a naval and air clash in these waters? What would be the U.S. strategic goal?
The Chinese are now responding angrily and defiantly to what they see as the provocations of sending high-level U.S. officials, and selling new weapons, to Taiwan, which China regards as its lost province.
Again, what is our purpose in playing the Taiwan card now?
If it is to provoke a fight, then are we prepared for a war in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea? Do we think the Chinese will capitulate?
Is this being done to "stand up to China" before Nov. 3?
Which is the party here that is engaged in bluster and bluff and which is the party that seems deadly serious as it views its vital interests and territorial rights as challenged?
There has been talk of the Quad evolving into an Asian NATO that embraces the major democracies in the Indo-Pacific Theater.
But the essence of NATO is Article V, where the U.S. commits itself to treat an attack on any one of some 30 nations as an attack on us.
Is there anything like this in the cards?
Australia, Japan and the U.S. are not going to war with China over its border with India, or its ethnic concentration camps in Xinjiang, or its seizing Hong Kong and atolls in the South China Sea.
When this election is over, this country has to think through what we are and are not willing to fight China for.
Xi Jinping dismisses our concerns over Hong Kong and the Uighurs, and he appears willing to fight for Taiwan and for what Beijing holds in the South China Sea, rather than see it permanently lost.
Are we?
Uighers is a business China can handle. They’ll treat them the way Hitler treated the Jews and the world won’t care.
It might have been a mistake to turn Japan into a pacifistic state. We could use some of those old-school samauri warriors in our fight with the Chicoms.
The smart way to fight China should they make war is to naval blockade outside the first island chain. They are not self sufficient in feeding themselves. And the food they grow themselves is highly dependent on fertilizer imports. They have little oil and most of what they get comes via the ocean. Then of course you have the reverse side, where they won’t be exporting much if they can’t ship via the South China Sea.
This is not complicated to do. And this is why China is wary of the USA. I am not a chicom, but I can’t think of a good scenario at the moment to make them calculate a war with the USA would be to their advantage.
Thank you, 5.56mm M. Kehoe.
FR is only game in town.
Don’t worry about them getting into the US. Just build a wall along the 49th parallel and increase USCG patrols along the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River/Gulf. Why? Our feckless Prime Mistake, Justin(e) True-dope, never heard of an immigrant that he didn’t want living in Kanadahar (aka Canada).
There are enough idjits in Eastern Kanadahar (ON, QU and the Maritimes) who would re-elect Fidel’s number one son as Prime Mistake of Kanadahar. If war broke out between India and China, he would bring in at least a million a year! What better way to destroy what is left of our economy that is not socislist AND, the bonus for him, PIZZING OFF PDJT, with so many of these million, seeking to sneak into the US!
You think that Sleepy Joe and Heels-up Harris are dim, lacking in intelligence? In a world of 100 Watt bulbs, Sleepy Joe and Heels-up may be 60 Watt. True-dope? A 20 Watt bulb, if that!
God help America and God help Alberta and Saskatchewan! AFA the rest of Canada? You made your bed, now you can sleep in it!
China is just an idea.
We will never have a direct war with China...Proxy war..yes.
China has been at war with the US for some time. Not a military war but a war nonetheless. A good example is their bio-weapon attack on the US by sending the caronavirus here in January. I believe it was on purpose and therefore an attack by an identifiable enemy. I also believe POTUS knows it.
A war with the PRC violates the First Rule - Never get involved in land war in Asia.
No reason we couldn’t destroy their maritime commerce, though, preferably on someone else’s (India?) behalf...
Wonder what a dozen or so well positioned simultaneous airburst munitions would do to that mass of PLA troops? Would there be enough of them left to send home?
Again, Pat asks all the right questions.
“What is our strategy here? Are we prepared for a naval and air clash in these waters? What would be the U.S. strategic goal? “
In reference to the South China Sea it’s to ensure free navigation. It’s the White Man’s Burden.
And yes, we’re prepared for a clash in those waters.
As for India, they can handle it on their own. Pat’s right on this. We have no interests there other to ensure India’s nuclear deterrent survives.
Taiwan is just a proxy for our legitimate, strategic interests in the South China Sea. And Hong Kong has fallen.
Trump if re-elected has to put so much pressure on the Chinese communist party that it starts making mistakes in the eyes of the people and loses the mandate of heaven.
We really need a Radio Free America operation for the far east. Xi is reckless whereas other chicom leaders have been content to wait and buy time. I think Xi got drunk on power with the last Obama term and now wants to bully China’s way into total hegemony in the far east and it’s hurt him and China.
China is on the verge of their own banking crisis and possible collapse. They cannot fight a war without resources and by consequence capital. Overt aggression against India and Taiwan may not trigger a shooting war but it is unlikely there would not be negative implications regarding trade. Could China seriously depend on resupply through shipments passing through the Indian Ocean? Relations between China and Russia have in the past been tense; how much could China depend on Russia helping them in the event of hostilities with other countries?
Military action by China is liable to result in engagements (militarily or economically) on multiple fronts. I see any such action as an irrational act of desperation and an indications of an impending collapse. Like North Korea China is engaging in saber rattling and not much else...
Both are coming here whether we like it or not, check the legal and illegal arrival stats. And many will remain loyal to their ‘homelands’ despite leaving for our greener pastures. Like the Californians did to Colorado.
“The smart way to fight China should they make war is to naval blockade outside the first island chain.”
And you are smart. That’s why Taiwan is so important. Makes that blockade impossible if the ChiComs own Taiwan.
[Trump if re-elected has to put so much pressure on the Chinese communist party that it starts making mistakes in the eyes of the people and loses the mandate of heaven.]
High probability of being correct. Direct war is a losing bet for both China and the U.S.A. We will indirectly support proxies with weapons and intelligence. China has few friends in the area, and is getting other Asian nations pissed off. As long as that is the case, we should stay out of any direct intervention with China. We need to get our house in order first.
The Chinese declared war on us some time ago.
“We need to get our house in order first.”
So, don’t vote for Biden? /s
More than most anything else, the Pentagon is the all time champion in war gaming. They are obsessed with it and do it constantly. And their conclusions, with mountains of variables, are translated into operational orders.
In addition, the surveillance of China, for example, is intense. If we observed them making necessary preparations for a war with India, and fed India the right data, Chinese forces would be brutalized as soon as they attacked.
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