I believe that the downside for Trump has been very thoroughly disclosed in this thread.
The change in the debate format works directly against the President, and in favor of candidate Biden for the reasons being discussed. The fact that no single poster has taken the time to sort them and tabulate the responses does not mean that no convincing response has been given.
It’s also quite the correct thing to do when the negotiations are complete and an agreement has been reached, if one party to the agreement unilaterally makes structural changes, the other party’s response should be to walk away as if no agreement ever existed.
We’ll disagree on the utility of “debates as entertainment” in influencing voter choice, or voter turnout.
We’ve always had debates, therefore people expect them. But I’ve seen no evidence that minds are changed (at least since 2016) by debate performance.
As to the quote: “risks of media criticism”.... You’re a joker.
There is no upside scenario.
I do not recall that those arguments have been made on this thread. They seem to me to be more rational than arguments that Joe will be slipped the questions because the debate becomes virtual. This argument seems to me to be more persuasive than it'll please his conservative base, we don't have to worry about that.
And Trump certainly does have to worry about courting charges that play into the narrative that he is arrogant, that he shoots from the hip, that he is a bully, that he rejects a commission's ruling intended to save the Americans' lives out of pique. He is 27 days before an election, he needs to appear in a positive light not as a sore head.
I think Trump is perfectly justified from a moral point of view in telling the commission to go to hell, my criticism is that it is not smart politically. I make the criticism not because I don't like Trump, it's because I want him to be reelected.