Fact-check: Team Trump capitalizes on Pennsylvania ballot incident to baselessly accuse Democrats of 'stealing' the election

CNN ^ | Updated 7:40 PM ET, Fri September 25, 2020 | Marshall Cohen

[joma89]

Leftist democrats are already stealing the elections by making mail-in voting (which is different than absentee voting) legal.

JoMa

[dartuser]

Assume Biden is up 10 points in Pa in CNNs opinion. Therefore p_biden = 0.55, p_trump = 0.45

What's the probability of a random selection of 9 ballots with the above probability distributions having 7 or 8 (have heard 8 Trump ballots also) ballots for Trump?

Answer:

p_7 = [9!/(7!*2!)]*(0.45)^7*(0.55)^2 = 0.0407
p_8 = [9!/(8!*1!)]*(0.45)^8*(0.55)^1 = 0.0083

I.e., its very unlikely that a random draw of 9 ballots chosen by a temp employee would contain 7 or 8 Trump ballots.

This alone should prompt CNN to investigate further ...

[Elsie]

Election experts Embarassed Democrats said the incident raised legitimate questions…

Correction on page E-11: text should read 'illegitimate'.

[Mark17]

Sorry, couldn’t get past CNN.