Posted on 09/21/2020 4:57:14 AM PDT by Kaslin
bingo
Based on the studies I've read, length of exposure is a significant component of transmission risk, so in the specific scenario described, that's probably pretty low risk. However, there are two caveats to that. First, there appear to be some individuals who are vastly more effective at transmitting than others and there hasn't been any information to date on how to spot such persons. They seem to be a significant risk in virtually any indoor situation. The other caveat is the pooled risk that comes with something like a grocery store or a shopping mall. Each individual you pass in that situation may have a low risk for transmission, but so many are being passed that the overall risk of transmission within that population is high. The risk is also there that during the infected person's time spent in a place like a grocery store or a shopping mall, they may be speaking, clearing their throat, or have a random cough or sneeze - even if unrelated to their infection.
"why does the covid test require a thrust into the nasal passage to capture enough material to formulate a diagnosis?"
Because that's how one particular test was created. Others use saliva (such as this one). Others use blood samples (such as this one.) The US just largely standardized on one particular test type that uses nasal swabs. Others exist.
"if this is such a virulent pathogen, why do we need to be tested to determine whether we have it nor not...?"
Because around 40% of people who have it show no symptoms and another 40% show mild to moderate symptoms which may be confused with a cold, flu, or allergies. The point of testing them is so that if they're infected, they know not to visit grandma in the nursing home because that could kill people. For that matter, they should be self-quarantining entirely since plenty of people with comorbidities (e.g. diabetes, obesity, etc.) still need to access public places such as grocery stores. It's a lot easier to identify the ~1% or less of the country with an active infection and have them take steps to protect themselves than to tell ~50% of the country living with risk factors that they have to stay home indefinitely.
That was the excuse for the shutdowns/lockdowns: if we didn’t do it, we would be in an Italy situation watching people dying in the hallways of overflowing hospitals. I still don’t think the shutdowns/lockdowns were a good move at all. I think it killed a lot of businesses and thrust a lot of people into poverty unnecessarily, and poverty is the absolute biggest killer on Earth.
We still want to slow the spread. Right now, we have somewhere between 204,000 - 250,000 dead from COVID-19 (the upper figure is based on the total excess mortality numbers seen this year, strongly suggesting we’ve been undercounting COVID deaths somewhat) with around 9% of the population previously or currently infected. Herd immunity is around 60% (R0 of 2.5, HIT calculated as 1-1/R0).
We have two paths to reach herd immunity. The first is President Trump’s path: get a well tested, safe, and effective vaccine to the American public as quickly as possible so people get inoculated. The second is to simply let this thing burn through the population unimpeded. President Trump wants the first path because it saves a LOT of lives. The slower the virus moves through the population while we get safe and effective vaccines to people, the fewer vulnerable people die from it. Simple math tells us that reaching herd immunity without a vaccine will cost us over a million American deaths. Some places want to keep everything and everyone shut down for however long it takes to get a vaccine out there, but that’s clearly counterproductive and unsustainable. Masks and social distancing are easy to maintain for a few months. They cost next to nothing. They don’t kill businesses and force people into poverty. And they DO slow transmission, which saves lives.
It’s possible to make a mask at home that’s pretty effective. There’s instructions on how to do so available on the Internet. The studies looking at different types of masks have also shown that even the basic homemade masks are nearly always better than nothing; even if not by a whole lot.
“Masks probably cut transmission risk by 90% for a 15-minute grocery store foray.”
Evidence? ANY?!
Asymptomatic people cause less than 1% of transmissions. And who spends 30 minutes in close proximity to someone in a grocery store? And that assumes a mask can actually DO something!
Masks catch the globs that would fall to the ground anyways. They have no effect on aerosols, although they direct the flow of air up past the eyes instead of down toward the ground.
Have you ever seen what happens when you put a bacterium in an agar plate?
That’s happening in your mask.
That’s why masks are only worn short term in a hospital and are changed out every 90 minutes in the surgery room.
No one in medicine wears the same mask all day. No one.
Replying to: “The purpose of studies is to demonstrate what might not be immediately obvious.”
Your arguments, appear to support the continuance of mandated mask use based on studies that require people to be something other than people. It is exactly the same argument that supports socialism. If it’s done without regard to humans being humans, it just might work. You know, like an ant colony.
In the real world - masks are useless for protecting against covid 19 and they are useless for protecting from covid 19.
” although they direct the flow of air up past the eyes instead of down toward the ground.”
Which allows the aerosol to linger for a longer period of time at eye level...
Something these graphics rarely show is the path of inhalation with a mask -— right past the eyes.
What happens when the aerosolized bacteria lands in the eyes?
I am going to test how much better breathing through the nose is for handling the distribution of particles. My theory is that nose breathing - or masking mouth only - will be far superior to masking both mouth and nose. The velocity and trajectory of the particles expelled through the nose should, with the help of gravity, eliminate the ‘droplets’ and aerosol much more quickly.
And I used to make fun of people who wore masks under there noses back in May...
No they don't, because I've explicitly stated multiple times in multiple threads that I'm very much against government mandates on principle. And they also don't work particularly well. I'm in favor of individuals educating themselves, looking at all the facts, and making their own decisions. And to help with that, I correct misinformation and provide links to authoritative sources of information so people can be better informed.
"based on studies that require people to be something other than people."
Studies require no such thing. They simply test possible courses of action and provide evidence that informs the choices we make. When you come to a red light, you can choose to apply your brakes. Studies say that when you apply the brakes, your car safely comes to a stop.
Or you can declare "I'M NOT AN ANT! BRAKES AREN'T REAL! TRAFFIC LIGHTS ARE SOCIALISM!" and plow into oncoming traffic. That's a choice you can make. But there are consequences to both yourself and others based on the choices we make. If you're okay living with those consequences, then by all means, go right ahead.
Well, capitalizing words is hardly convincing. The duration and universality of these orders is simply unprecedented in human history. I’ve yet to hear a rational explanation for this. However, I’d be okay with mask mandates if all other restrictions on business were lifted. Control freaks can’t have that unfortunately.
I’m glad you don’t support the mandates. Thank you for clearing it up.
Brake use is proven extremely effective in the real world. Mask use is proven completely ineffective in the real world.
Your argument is void.
Of course, for the left, an unborn baby in the womb is merely ‘a clump of cells’. I’ve heard of a feminazi that calls unborn babies ‘parasites’. What an absolutely screwed up world we live in. In what was formerly known as ‘Christendom’, society is getting more vile than I imagined it ever could be. Bread and circuses.
While society in the former ‘Christendom’ turns away from God, those in the ‘third world’ are turning TOWARD God. The number of mohamedans turning to God is phenomenal. The number of Buddhist monks coming to God is also amazing, and it is spreading IN their temples!
Unfortunately, it will likely take a catastrophe (a REAL one, NOT an orchestrated one like the CCP-Coronavirus) for people in the West to turn back to God.
I have a cheesy blue mask
it is not made of agar
Even if you do everything perfectly, it's still not an antiseptic environment. In hospitals they dispose of them in bio hazard containers. Also - those people you see in stores not wearing them right, adjusting them over and over again, putting them in their pockets etc. Not healthy.
Then we should be dropping like flies.
We ain’t.
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